Why I'm Watching CURLD Closely Heading Into July

 

Above is a daily chart of CURLD, and in the lower pane you'll see the MACD indicator. One of the patterns I've noticed for this stock is that when the MACD is below the zero line and then produces a bullish crossover, the stock often goes on to rally. It's certainly not a perfect signal, but it has proven to be a useful tool for identifying potential turning points after periods of weakness.

If you look at the chart, you'll see several examples of this setup. At points A, B, C, and D, the MACD crossed higher while still below the zero line. In each case, the stock responded positively. Point C spent more time moving sideways than trending higher, but the bullish crossover still marked the end of the previous decline. The other signals led to much stronger advances.

Now we're seeing a very similar setup develop once again.

The MACD remains below the zero line, but it's beginning to curl upward. If it completes a bullish crossover, I'll be paying very close attention. On its own, I believe this setup has better than a 50% chance of producing a profitable move. However, I've found that no single indicator should ever be relied upon by itself. Instead, I like to stack multiple factors in my favor before committing capital.

That's where seasonality comes into the picture.

Above is a seasonal table for CURLD, and one statistic immediately jumps off the page. Historically, July has been the stock's strongest month, producing a bullish move approximately 85% of the time. Granted, the historical data only goes back to 2018, so we're dealing with a relatively small sample size. Even with that limitation, July stands out by a wide margin as the most favorable month on the calendar for this stock.

When I combine those two factors, a potential MACD buy signal and a very strong seasonal tailwind, I believe the probability of success increases meaningfully. Neither one guarantees the stock will rally, but together they create a setup that deserves my attention.

This is exactly how I like to approach trading. Rather than relying on a single indicator or making emotional decisions, I prefer to look for situations where technical analysis, seasonality, and probability all point in the same direction. The more pieces of evidence I can gather, the more confidence I have in taking a trade.

I'm not blindly buying just because the calendar is turning to July. I still want to see confirmation from the MACD and, ideally, some improvement in price action before getting involved. If those pieces begin to fall into place over the next several trading sessions, CURLD could become one of the more interesting cannabis stocks on my watch list.

I'll be stalking this trade closely in the days ahead to see if everything comes together.

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Will History Repeat Itself for TLRY This July?

 

Above is a monthly chart of TLRY, and as you can see, this has been one of the weakest cannabis stocks in the group. All year long it has displayed relative weakness compared to MSOS, which has spent most of the year moving sideways rather than trending lower. That relative weakness is the main reason I threw in the towel on TLRY several months ago. I simply didn't see a reason to stay invested when there were much stronger opportunities elsewhere in the sector.

Having said that, we're now approaching a very interesting time of year for TLRY from a seasonal perspective.

Historically, July has been TLRY's strongest month. Based on the data we have, the stock has rallied during July roughly 71% of the time. Now, it's important to keep this statistic in perspective because TLRY has only been trading since 2018, so we're working with a relatively small sample size. Even so, July clearly stands out as its most bullish month, making it a seasonal tendency that's worth paying attention to.

Another thing that caught my eye is the monthly chart itself. In recent years, whenever TLRY has managed to take out the high from the month of June, it has often followed through with a respectable rally. There's certainly no guarantee history repeats itself, but it's a pattern that has shown up enough times for me to keep it on my radar.

At the moment, I don't own any shares of TLRY, but I'm beginning to entertain the idea of getting back in if the technical picture starts improving. As many of you know from my post last week, I'm already bullish on MSOS. If MSOS begins a meaningful advance, there's a good chance the rest of the cannabis sector will participate as well. After all, you've probably heard the saying, "A rising tide lifts all boats."

That doesn't necessarily mean TLRY is my favorite cannabis stock. In fact, I still believe there are stronger names in the group, including GTBIF, CURLD, and TRLV  which have shown much better relative strength over the past several months. However, one thing I've learned over the years is that when TLRY finally starts moving, it can catch fire in a hurry. The stock has a history of making explosive moves once momentum returns.

What also makes this setup attractive is the current monthly trading range. Price has been consolidating in a relatively tight range, which helps define risk while leaving the door open for a potentially attractive reward if cannabis stocks begin their next leg higher.

I'll be watching closely to see if this seasonal pattern plays out once again. Let me know what you think in the comments.

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MSOS Holds Critical Support: Is a Trend Reversal Beginning?

 

Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and as you can see, this market has been under pressure for the past couple of weeks. While the recent selling has certainly been frustrating for cannabis investors, I'd like to point out something on the chart that I believe deserves our attention.

Today, MSOS tested a very significant support zone between 4.30 and 4.45 and, more importantly, held it. This isn't just some random price area. If you look back at the chart, you'll notice this support zone first developed toward the end of last year. Since then, it has repeatedly acted as both resistance and support, making it one of the more important technical levels on the chart. Markets have a tendency to remember these types of price zones because they represent areas where buyers and sellers have repeatedly agreed on value.

What I find encouraging is that today's test of support was met with buyers stepping in aggressively enough to push the ETF well off its lows. Instead of closing weak, MSOS finished the session with a strong close above that support zone. When I see a market successfully defend a major level after an extended decline, it tells me that sellers may be losing some of their momentum.

Another positive development was today's noticeable expansion in trading volume. Increased volume doesn't guarantee a reversal, but it does tell me that there was greater participation during today's session. When higher volume accompanies a successful test of an important support level, I pay attention because it often signals institutional interest.

I've also drawn a trendline connecting the June 9th high with the subsequent lower highs. That downtrend has remained intact throughout this recent pullback, but we're getting close to challenging it. If MSOS can trade above today's high of 4.70, I believe that would also confirm a break of that descending trendline.

From my perspective, that's where things start to get interesting. A market that successfully holds a major support zone while simultaneously breaking a downtrend line often has the technical ingredients for at least a tradable bounce. No chart pattern is foolproof, and there are never any guarantees in the market, but when multiple technical factors begin lining up in the same direction, I believe the odds start shifting in favor of the bulls.

For now, I'm simply watching to see if buyers can build on today's strength. A move above 4.70 would be an encouraging next step and could attract additional momentum buyers. Whether this marks the beginning of a larger advance or just a short-term rally remains to be seen, but today's price action was certainly constructive. Let's see how things unfold tomorrow.

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Relative Weakness In NVDA Could Lead To A Great Entry Opportunity

 Over the past few trading sessions I’ve been noticing some relative weakness developing in NVDA when compared to the SPY, and it’s something that immediately caught my attention as a trader. Relative strength and relative weakness are two of the biggest things I focus on intraday because they can often give clues about where institutional money is flowing. In this case, NVDA has clearly been lagging behind the broader market.

If you look at the chart above, you’ll see NVDA displayed on the top with the SPY directly below it for comparison purposes. What really stands out to me are the areas marked A, B, C, and D. At each of those points the SPY continued pushing to higher highs while NVDA was doing the exact opposite by putting in lower highs. That divergence is a textbook example of relative weakness. When a leading stock begins failing to confirm the strength of the overall market, it’s often a warning sign that momentum is slowing down.

For active day traders, this setup actually presented a solid opportunity on the short side. While the market itself continued grinding higher, NVDA struggled to keep pace and repeatedly failed at resistance levels. Those failed pushes created opportunities to scalp short-term downside moves throughout the day. In many cases, weak stocks in a strong market can offer some of the cleanest short setups because they tend to drop quickly once buying pressure dries up.

That said, I’m not bearish on NVDA longer term. In fact, when I shift over and look at the Daily chart on the right side, I actually see a very healthy pullback developing. After such a powerful run over the past couple of months, a retracement like this is completely normal and, in my opinion, even constructive. The stock now appears to be approaching a rising trend line that could act as an area of support. If buyers step in near that level, it could set up for another leg higher.

Because of that, I’m already thinking ahead to next week and planning how I want to position myself. Rather than chasing shares outright, my strategy will likely be to sell out of the-money puts around the 205 strike price. I like this approach because it allows me to collect premium while potentially entering the stock at a lower price if the options get exercised.

Even if my timing is slightly off and NVDA continues drifting lower temporarily, I honestly wouldn’t mind owning shares down near the 205 area. That would give me a solid entry on a high quality stock while also allowing me to keep the premium collected from selling the puts. For now, I’m staying patient and letting the charts guide me. It should be interesting to see how this setup unfolds next week.

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MSOS Closes Strong at $4.14 as Late Day Momentum Signals Potential Breakout

 

Not a bad day at all for MSOS, and I have to admit it felt good seeing it finally close above that psychological $4 level. That’s one of those round numbers that tends to matter more than it should, but time and again the market proves that traders pay attention to it. Getting above it and more importantly holding it into the close is a small but meaningful win for the bulls.

When I look at the 5-minute chart, most of the session was honestly pretty forgettable. Price action was choppy and lacked conviction, the kind of day where it feels like neither side really has control. For the majority of the trading day, MSOS just drifted, with no real urgency from buyers to step in aggressively. If I had only checked midday, I probably would’ve written the day off as noise.

But the last hour completely changed the tone.

That’s where things got interesting. We saw a clear surge in buying, and what really caught my attention was the accompanying volume. It wasn’t just a slow grind higher, there was real participation behind the move. Volume expanding into the close is something I always watch closely because it can signal institutional involvement or at least a broader shift in sentiment. It tells me this wasn’t just retail chasing, it had some weight behind it.

Closing on the exact high of the day at 4.14 is another detail I don’t ignore. That kind of close suggests buyers were in control right into the bell, with no meaningful profit taking to push it down. It’s a subtle sign of strength, but in my experience, those closes tend to matter, especially when they line up with key levels on higher timeframes.

And that brings me to the daily chart.

Zooming out, it’s pretty clear that 4.14 isn’t just any number, it lines up perfectly with last month’s high. That makes it a level worth respecting. Markets have memory, and prior highs often act as resistance until proven otherwise. So while today’s action was encouraging, the real test comes next.

If we can clear 4.14 convincingly tomorrow, I think there’s a very good chance we see continuation to the upside. Breakouts above well defined levels like this can trigger momentum, especially if short sellers start to cover and sidelined buyers feel forced to chase.

This setup also reinforces what I wrote back on April 4th about momentum shifting in favor of the bulls. At that time, the technicals, especially the MACD turning bullish suggested that a change in character was underway. Now, we’re starting to see price action confirm that idea.

It’s still early, and one day doesn’t make a trend, but this is the kind of price behavior I want to see if MSOS is going to make a meaningful move higher.

April 4th commentary: MSOS Setting Up at Major Support as MACD Turns Bullish