Relative Weakness In NVDA Could Lead To A Great Entry Opportunity

 Over the past few trading sessions I’ve been noticing some relative weakness developing in NVDA when compared to the SPY, and it’s something that immediately caught my attention as a trader. Relative strength and relative weakness are two of the biggest things I focus on intraday because they can often give clues about where institutional money is flowing. In this case, NVDA has clearly been lagging behind the broader market.

If you look at the chart above, you’ll see NVDA displayed on the top with the SPY directly below it for comparison purposes. What really stands out to me are the areas marked A, B, C, and D. At each of those points the SPY continued pushing to higher highs while NVDA was doing the exact opposite by putting in lower highs. That divergence is a textbook example of relative weakness. When a leading stock begins failing to confirm the strength of the overall market, it’s often a warning sign that momentum is slowing down.

For active day traders, this setup actually presented a solid opportunity on the short side. While the market itself continued grinding higher, NVDA struggled to keep pace and repeatedly failed at resistance levels. Those failed pushes created opportunities to scalp short-term downside moves throughout the day. In many cases, weak stocks in a strong market can offer some of the cleanest short setups because they tend to drop quickly once buying pressure dries up.

That said, I’m not bearish on NVDA longer term. In fact, when I shift over and look at the Daily chart on the right side, I actually see a very healthy pullback developing. After such a powerful run over the past couple of months, a retracement like this is completely normal and, in my opinion, even constructive. The stock now appears to be approaching a rising trend line that could act as an area of support. If buyers step in near that level, it could set up for another leg higher.

Because of that, I’m already thinking ahead to next week and planning how I want to position myself. Rather than chasing shares outright, my strategy will likely be to sell out of the-money puts around the 205 strike price. I like this approach because it allows me to collect premium while potentially entering the stock at a lower price if the options get exercised.

Even if my timing is slightly off and NVDA continues drifting lower temporarily, I honestly wouldn’t mind owning shares down near the 205 area. That would give me a solid entry on a high quality stock while also allowing me to keep the premium collected from selling the puts. For now, I’m staying patient and letting the charts guide me. It should be interesting to see how this setup unfolds next week.

MSOS Closes Strong at $4.14 as Late Day Momentum Signals Potential Breakout

 

Not a bad day at all for MSOS, and I have to admit it felt good seeing it finally close above that psychological $4 level. That’s one of those round numbers that tends to matter more than it should, but time and again the market proves that traders pay attention to it. Getting above it and more importantly holding it into the close is a small but meaningful win for the bulls.

When I look at the 5-minute chart, most of the session was honestly pretty forgettable. Price action was choppy and lacked conviction, the kind of day where it feels like neither side really has control. For the majority of the trading day, MSOS just drifted, with no real urgency from buyers to step in aggressively. If I had only checked midday, I probably would’ve written the day off as noise.

But the last hour completely changed the tone.

That’s where things got interesting. We saw a clear surge in buying, and what really caught my attention was the accompanying volume. It wasn’t just a slow grind higher, there was real participation behind the move. Volume expanding into the close is something I always watch closely because it can signal institutional involvement or at least a broader shift in sentiment. It tells me this wasn’t just retail chasing, it had some weight behind it.

Closing on the exact high of the day at 4.14 is another detail I don’t ignore. That kind of close suggests buyers were in control right into the bell, with no meaningful profit taking to push it down. It’s a subtle sign of strength, but in my experience, those closes tend to matter, especially when they line up with key levels on higher timeframes.

And that brings me to the daily chart.

Zooming out, it’s pretty clear that 4.14 isn’t just any number, it lines up perfectly with last month’s high. That makes it a level worth respecting. Markets have memory, and prior highs often act as resistance until proven otherwise. So while today’s action was encouraging, the real test comes next.

If we can clear 4.14 convincingly tomorrow, I think there’s a very good chance we see continuation to the upside. Breakouts above well defined levels like this can trigger momentum, especially if short sellers start to cover and sidelined buyers feel forced to chase.

This setup also reinforces what I wrote back on April 4th about momentum shifting in favor of the bulls. At that time, the technicals, especially the MACD turning bullish suggested that a change in character was underway. Now, we’re starting to see price action confirm that idea.

It’s still early, and one day doesn’t make a trend, but this is the kind of price behavior I want to see if MSOS is going to make a meaningful move higher.

April 4th commentary: MSOS Setting Up at Major Support as MACD Turns Bullish

INTC Breakout: A Textbook Relative Strength Winner

 Wow, what a week it’s been for the market, and especially for INTC. I’m still shaking my head a bit, not because I’m surprised, but because it’s always satisfying to see a setup play out exactly the way you anticipated. About a week ago, I wrote about how INTC was showing clear signs of strength. What really stood out to me wasn’t just the price action, it was the relative strength. The stock wasn’t just moving up; it was outperforming its peers and the broader market. That’s always one of my biggest tells that something meaningful could be unfolding.

If you look back at the chart I shared, the arrow marks the exact spot where I alerted readers right here on this site that INTC looked ready to move higher. At the time, it wasn’t about predicting the future, it was about recognizing a high probability setup. The stock had been acting well, holding key levels, and quietly building momentum while others were still chopping around and moving lower. That kind of behavior tends to precede strong moves, and that’s exactly what we got.

Since that post, INTC has absolutely exploded to the upside, hitting a high today of 63.39. Moves like that don’t happen by accident. They’re usually the result of accumulation, improving sentiment, and underlying strength that shows up in the relative performance before it becomes obvious to everyone else. That’s why I focus so heavily on relative strength, it gives me an edge in spotting leaders early.

Another important piece of the puzzle was the broader semiconductor space. I pointed out at the time that other semis were also starting to show strength, and that added even more conviction to the trade. When you see a stock leading within a strong group, it significantly increases the odds that the move has legs. It’s not just a one-off story, it’s part of a bigger trend. That kind of confirmation is something I always look for before committing capital.

To me, this trade was a textbook setup, something straight out of my playbook. It had all the elements I look for: relative strength, sector confirmation, and clean technical structure. Those are the kinds of trades I try to focus on consistently, because over time, that’s where the real edge comes from.

If you’re interested in how I use relative strength in my own trading, I go into much more detail in my book, Master The Market with Relative Strength. And if you want to revisit the original analysis from last week on INTC, feel free to go back and check out that post. It’s always valuable to study these setups in real time and see how they evolve.

CURLF Showing Relative Strength at a Key Support Level

 Above is a daily chart of CURLF, and in the lower pane I’m using a ratio line of CURLF versus MSOS to measure relative strength within the cannabis space. Right away, the first thing that stands out to me is the strong support level that CURLF has just bounced from, and I think that level is the key to the entire setup.

Back in November, CURLF found support just under the $2 area, and now we’re seeing buyers step back into the stock at that same level once again. I always pay close attention when a stock reacts positively at a prior support zone because it tells me that the market still recognizes that area as important. When a level has already proven itself in the past and then works again later, it tends to carry more weight in my analysis.

What I like here is not just the bounce itself, but the way the bounce is happening. We’re now seeing three above average sized green candles come off that support area, and that’s not something I ignore. Strong candles like that often tell me buyers are stepping in with conviction rather than just creating a weak dead cat bounce. To me, that kind of price action suggests demand is returning in a meaningful way.

The lower pane is also giving me a very important clue. As CURLF was retesting support, the ratio line versus MSOS was actually showing bullish divergence. In other words, while price was coming back down toward that support level, the stock was quietly beginning to outperform the broader cannabis ETF. That’s something I always find encouraging because it can often be an early signal that the stock is beginning to strengthen beneath the surface before the price chart fully reflects it.

What makes this even more interesting is that the ratio line now looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out of its consolidation before price does. That’s exactly the kind of pattern I like to watch for because relative strength often acts as a leading indicator. When I see the ratio line improving ahead of a clear price breakout, it tells me that buyers may already be positioning in anticipation of a larger move.

Of course, I still want to see the cannabis sector continue to improve overall. If MSOS can keep moving higher and the group starts to gain momentum, I think CURLF has a very good chance of emerging as one of the stronger names in the space. It’s already showing the kind of relative behavior I want to see in a potential leader.

For that reason, CURLF is definitely one I think is worth watching here. It’s sitting on proven support, showing strong buying pressure off the lows, and beginning to outperform its sector. In my opinion, that combination gives it the potential to become one of the leaders if the cannabis trade continues to develop.

INTC Starting to Act Like a Leader

 

Above is a daily chart of INTC, and in the lower pane I’m using SPY for comparison. One of the things I’m always looking for is relative strength, especially during periods when the broader market is under pressure, and I think INTC has been showing a very clear example of that.

If you look closely from point A to point B, the contrast between INTC and SPY really stands out. SPY went on to make a much lower low at point B, which tells you the overall market was still getting hit pretty hard. But while the market was falling apart, INTC held up much better and actually made a considerably higher low at point B. To me, that is exactly the kind of price action that deserves attention.

This is one of the classic signs of relative strength. When the market gets hammered but a stock refuses to break down with it, that usually means there is underlying demand supporting the name. In other words, buyers are stepping in sooner and with more confidence than they are in the broader market. That doesn’t always lead to an immediate breakout, but it often gives me an early clue about where money may be quietly rotating.

What I like about this setup is that the relative strength isn’t just subtle, it’s pretty obvious on the chart. INTC didn’t just survive the market weakness; it absorbed it and then began to stabilize in a constructive way. When I see that kind of action, I start thinking less about what the market is doing in the moment and more about what the stock may do once market pressure starts to ease.

Another bullish development is that INTC has now broken out above its trendline. That alone gets my attention, but what really adds conviction for me is the way it happened. The stock pushed through that area with three large consecutive green candles, which is not the kind of action I like to ignore. Strong candles in succession often signal urgency from buyers, and when they appear after a period of relative strength, I view that as an important shift in character.

I’m also encouraged by the fact that INTC is not acting strong in isolation. Several other semiconductor names have been showing relative strength as well, and that kind of group behavior matters. When I see multiple stocks in the same sector starting to outperform together, it often suggests that institutional money is moving into that space. Sector confirmation can go a long way in supporting an individual setup.

At this point, I think INTC is in a favorable position technically. It has held up better than the broader market, it has broken trendline resistance with authority, and it’s doing so alongside strength in other semiconductors. For those reasons, I expect higher prices in the weeks ahead and will be watching to see if this momentum continues to build.