AAPL’s Price Action Confirms Its Leadership Role

 

Above is a daily chart of AAPL with the SPY plotted in the lower pane. One thing that stood out to me immediately was the clear display of relative strength Apple showed last week. While the SPY undercut its October low and printed a lower low, AAPL did the opposite, it held firm and made a much higher low. Any time a leading stock refuses to follow the market down, that’s a major clue. In this case, it was a textbook example of relative strength quietly tipping its hand.

Fast forward to today,  the S&P opened lower yet AAPL didn’t follow the script. Instead, AAPL finished the day up more than 1.5%, closing right on its highs. That kind of action, especially against a soft market backdrop, is the type of behavior I pay close attention to. When a stock consistently outperforms its benchmark on down days, it often signals that institutions are accumulating shares beneath the surface.

Now we’re looking at new all-time highs in AAPL, and in hindsight the early warning signs were there. Last week’s higher low relative to the SPY was the tell. Today’s strong close simply confirmed what the relative strength was already pointing to.

Cannabis Sector Comes Alive: MSOS Shows Relative Strength

 

What a day for the cannabis sector. MSOS, the leading U.S. cannabis ETF delivered a strong performance, finishing the session up more than 10%. This wasn’t just a good day; it was a clear display of relative strength compared to nearly every other ETF in the market. While much of the broader market continued to chop around today, MSOS stood out as money rotated aggressively into the space.

Last week I highlighted the powerful combination of conditions setting up beneath the surface,  an oversold market, marked by eight consecutive days of lower daily highs, along with a key test of the psychological $3 support level. That type of pressure often creates the fuel for sharp reversals once buyers finally step in. Today’s action confirmed the setup by continuing last week's rally.

After hours, MSOS is trading slightly higher and flirting with the $4 mark, a level that will likely act as the next meaningful hurdle. A push through $4 with volume could open the door for a continuation move.

Looking at the 5-minute chart above on the left, the intraday story becomes even clearer. The ETF saw a steady flow of accumulation throughout the session, with buyers consistently stepping in on dips. The most telling moment came in the final five minutes, a massive 2-million-share volume spike as MSOS closed right on the highs of the day. That kind of aggressive end of day demand often signals big money interest or strong conviction buying.

Given the strength and the way MSOS closed, I would expect some follow-through. Now the key question is whether it can conquer that $4 level as the week unfolds. Let’s see how the rest of the week plays out.

VFF Shows Leadership: A Standout of Relative Strength in a Weak Cannabis Sector

 Above is a daily chart of VFF, and in the lower pane is the MSOS ETF, which tracks the broader U.S. cannabis sector. What immediately stands out is the clear divergence between the two. While MSOS continues to grind lower and is printing fresh lower lows, VFF is doing the opposite, it’s forming a significantly higher low. This type of price behavior is a textbook example of relative strength.

Relative strength doesn’t necessarily mean a stock is exploding higher while its sector runs flat. More often it shows up exactly like this, when the sector is under pressure, yet one name refuses to break down. Investors and traders watch for these moments because they often signal accumulation beneath the surface. When a stock holds firm while its peers sell off, it tells you that buyers are quietly stepping in, supporting price at higher levels and absorbing weakness in the broader group.

For VFF, this higher low is especially notable given the persistent selling pressure across cannabis names. The stock’s ability to stay buoyant suggests it may be positioning itself as a leader within the sector. The next key level to watch is the $4.08 resistance area. A decisive breakout above that price could confirm the relative strength story and potentially trigger the next leg higher.

Spotting the Breakdown: How Relative Weakness in XLF Warned of a Sell-Off

 

In the top pane I’m looking at a 5-minute chart of XLF, the financial sector ETF. Below that, I’ve got a 5-minute chart of the SPY, which tracks the S&P 500. Around 1:00 PM, something important caught my eye: while the SPY was making a new intraday high, the XLF was actually forming a lower high. That divergence immediately signaled relative weakness in the financials. Sure enough, shortly after the SPY began to roll over, the XLF didn’t just dip—it fell hard, essentially collapsing in price compared to the broader market. This setup is a classic example of how relative weakness can offer a powerful early warning. The financials weren’t keeping up with the broader market strength, and once momentum shifted, they became the first to break down. Watching sector performance in real time, especially during key turning points in the market, gave me an edge. It’s this kind of relative analysis that helps me anticipate sector-specific sell-offs before they become obvious on the broader tape.

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Silver's Bullish Outlook: Undervaluation Signals Further Upside Potential

 

The chart above provides valuable insight into the relative valuation of silver compared to gold over the past two years. In the upper panel, we see a daily chart of silver, showcasing its price movement. Meanwhile, the lower panel features a ratio chart, which compares the performance of silver relative to gold. This ratio serves as a useful tool for identifying points of undervaluation and overvaluation in the silver market.

Two key lines are marked on the ratio chart: a green line, representing levels where silver is historically undervalued compared to gold, and a red line, indicating points where silver tends to be overvalued. Observing past performance, we see that when the ratio drops to the green line, silver typically rallies, as it is considered undervalued in relation to gold. Conversely, when the ratio rises to the red line, silver often peaks, signaling overvaluation.

Currently, the ratio line is climbing higher after having been in the undervalued zone near the green line. This upward movement suggests that silver has been regaining strength relative to gold, and the corresponding rise in silver’s price confirms this trend. Notably, since the ratio has not yet reached the red line, which signals overvaluation, it implies that silver may still have room to run. Therefore, we could expect further upside in the silver market in the coming weeks as the ratio continues to climb, with the possibility of silver approaching or even surpassing recent highs before reaching overvalued levels. This dynamic highlights the ongoing potential for bullish momentum in silver prices.

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