MSOS at a Pivotal Level: Watching $4 for a Bullish Shift

 Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and like I mentioned the other day, the key level we need to break is $4. Getting above this price would signal a shift in momentum back in favor of the bulls. Right now, that small gap from $3.94 to $4 is acting as resistance, and it coincides neatly with the downtrend line drawn from the October 15th high. Watching volume will be critical to confirm which direction the market wants to take.

I’m still holding about 75% of my long position from the summer lows, and I have to admit, it’s frustrating, like many others, I’ve given back a fair portion of gains. But this is how the market works, and patience is part of the game. A bullish green candle breaking through resistance on heavy volume would be ideal, and it’s the kind of confirmation that could signal a real shift in market sentiment.

In my opinion, this is a pivotal area for MSOS. I’m taking it one day at a time, carefully watching for signs of where money is flowing into this ETF. Observing volume, price action, and the reaction around $4 will guide my next move, and I’m staying disciplined, ready to respond to whatever the market gives us.

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AAPL’s Price Action Confirms Its Leadership Role

 

Above is a daily chart of AAPL with the SPY plotted in the lower pane. One thing that stood out to me immediately was the clear display of relative strength Apple showed last week. While the SPY undercut its October low and printed a lower low, AAPL did the opposite, it held firm and made a much higher low. Any time a leading stock refuses to follow the market down, that’s a major clue. In this case, it was a textbook example of relative strength quietly tipping its hand.

Fast forward to today,  the S&P opened lower yet AAPL didn’t follow the script. Instead, AAPL finished the day up more than 1.5%, closing right on its highs. That kind of action, especially against a soft market backdrop, is the type of behavior I pay close attention to. When a stock consistently outperforms its benchmark on down days, it often signals that institutions are accumulating shares beneath the surface.

Now we’re looking at new all-time highs in AAPL, and in hindsight the early warning signs were there. Last week’s higher low relative to the SPY was the tell. Today’s strong close simply confirmed what the relative strength was already pointing to.

Cannabis Sector Comes Alive: MSOS Shows Relative Strength

 

What a day for the cannabis sector. MSOS, the leading U.S. cannabis ETF delivered a strong performance, finishing the session up more than 10%. This wasn’t just a good day; it was a clear display of relative strength compared to nearly every other ETF in the market. While much of the broader market continued to chop around today, MSOS stood out as money rotated aggressively into the space.

Last week I highlighted the powerful combination of conditions setting up beneath the surface,  an oversold market, marked by eight consecutive days of lower daily highs, along with a key test of the psychological $3 support level. That type of pressure often creates the fuel for sharp reversals once buyers finally step in. Today’s action confirmed the setup by continuing last week's rally.

After hours, MSOS is trading slightly higher and flirting with the $4 mark, a level that will likely act as the next meaningful hurdle. A push through $4 with volume could open the door for a continuation move.

Looking at the 5-minute chart above on the left, the intraday story becomes even clearer. The ETF saw a steady flow of accumulation throughout the session, with buyers consistently stepping in on dips. The most telling moment came in the final five minutes, a massive 2-million-share volume spike as MSOS closed right on the highs of the day. That kind of aggressive end of day demand often signals big money interest or strong conviction buying.

Given the strength and the way MSOS closed, I would expect some follow-through. Now the key question is whether it can conquer that $4 level as the week unfolds. Let’s see how the rest of the week plays out.

VFF Shows Leadership: A Standout of Relative Strength in a Weak Cannabis Sector

 Above is a daily chart of VFF, and in the lower pane is the MSOS ETF, which tracks the broader U.S. cannabis sector. What immediately stands out is the clear divergence between the two. While MSOS continues to grind lower and is printing fresh lower lows, VFF is doing the opposite, it’s forming a significantly higher low. This type of price behavior is a textbook example of relative strength.

Relative strength doesn’t necessarily mean a stock is exploding higher while its sector runs flat. More often it shows up exactly like this, when the sector is under pressure, yet one name refuses to break down. Investors and traders watch for these moments because they often signal accumulation beneath the surface. When a stock holds firm while its peers sell off, it tells you that buyers are quietly stepping in, supporting price at higher levels and absorbing weakness in the broader group.

For VFF, this higher low is especially notable given the persistent selling pressure across cannabis names. The stock’s ability to stay buoyant suggests it may be positioning itself as a leader within the sector. The next key level to watch is the $4.08 resistance area. A decisive breakout above that price could confirm the relative strength story and potentially trigger the next leg higher.

Spotting the Breakdown: How Relative Weakness in XLF Warned of a Sell-Off

 

In the top pane I’m looking at a 5-minute chart of XLF, the financial sector ETF. Below that, I’ve got a 5-minute chart of the SPY, which tracks the S&P 500. Around 1:00 PM, something important caught my eye: while the SPY was making a new intraday high, the XLF was actually forming a lower high. That divergence immediately signaled relative weakness in the financials. Sure enough, shortly after the SPY began to roll over, the XLF didn’t just dip—it fell hard, essentially collapsing in price compared to the broader market. This setup is a classic example of how relative weakness can offer a powerful early warning. The financials weren’t keeping up with the broader market strength, and once momentum shifted, they became the first to break down. Watching sector performance in real time, especially during key turning points in the market, gave me an edge. It’s this kind of relative analysis that helps me anticipate sector-specific sell-offs before they become obvious on the broader tape.

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