TLRY Shows Powerful Relative Strength: A Bounce Right on Schedule

 

Today was a very interesting day for TLRY, and that’s why I want to give an important update on where things currently stand. On December 3rd, I wrote about how TLRY was approaching a support area and how there was a real chance for a bounce to develop from that zone. Well, that’s exactly what may be starting to happen. If you look at the daily chart above on the right, you’ll see that TLRY bounced precisely from the gap area I highlighted last week. As I mentioned in that earlier post, once we entered that gap, I’d be watching closely for any signs of a reversal and today, we definitely got one.

What makes this even more compelling is that the setup was visible before TLRY actually rallied. If you follow my work, you would have been prepared for the possibility of a move higher. Let’s shift our attention to the 15-minute chart on the left, along with MSOS in the lower pane for comparison. Notice what happened, MSOS made a lower low below Thursday’s low, but TLRY did not. Instead, TLRY printed a higher low, which I’ve marked with the white trendlines. This type of behavior is a textbook example of relative strength, and honestly, this is exactly the kind of setup I live for.

So when the market opened this morning and TLRY refused to follow MSOS to new lows, I was already on high alert. The moment resistance was taken out, I was ready to buy. Once TLRY moved above 7.35, that was the trigger to jump in, with a stop tucked safely below today’s low. From there, the stock didn’t look back. TLRY exploded higher and closed near the highs of the day, confirming the strength I was watching play out beneath the surface.

But now that we’ve enjoyed a powerful intraday move, it’s time to zoom back out to the daily chart. We’re not out of the woods just yet. There’s still a trendline overhead that TLRY needs to break through to confirm a more meaningful shift in momentum. On top of that, there’s an overhead gap between $9.00 and $10.30 that could act as resistance once we get closer. I’d especially like to see volume increase as price approaches that zone, that would give me more confidence that buyers are serious and that this isn’t just a one-day pop.

For now, this was a textbook display of relative strength, a clean trigger, and a powerful close. Let’s see how things unfold over the next few days.

VFF Breaks Down Into Gap as Momentum Fades

 

Above is a daily chart of VFF, and as you can see, price has now pushed into the open gap. The full range of that gap extends down to 2.96, so there’s still room for this to continue drifting lower if buyers don’t step in soon. What makes this move a bit disappointing is that just two weeks ago, VFF was the clear standout in the cannabis space. It was showing the strongest relative strength by far, and I had high hopes that we were setting up for a breakout over the 4.08 high. That breakout never came, and the chart has been fading ever since.

What really stands out now is the pattern of five consecutive days of lower highs. It’s very similar to the behavior we saw in MSOS back on November 20th. That same slow grind of lower highs often signals that momentum has shifted, at least temporarily, and that the stock needs more time before any meaningful upside can resume.

For me, this is now a patience trade. I’m watching for the prior day’s high to be taken out before considering a long entry. That would show me that buyers are finally willing to step back in and start exerting some control. Until that happens, there’s no reason to force anything. I’ll step aside, watch how much of this gap gets filled, and wait for price action to show its hand. Sometimes the best move is simply to stay patient. 

CGEM Approaches Key Breakout Level After Heavy Volume Surge

 

Here is a trade I’m keeping on my radar. Above is a monthly chart of CGEM, and the first thing I want to highlight is the long-term support level that price is currently bouncing off of. This level has been in play for months and the market respected it once again. The month of October confirmed the strength of this support by forming a bullish outside bar on record monthly volume. Any time I see expanding volume at a major level, I pay attention.

In November, we saw some encouraging follow-through as buyers continued to defend that level. When I shift my focus to the daily chart on the right, I can see we’ve transitioned into a period of consolidation. This type of structure often shows up before a potential expansion move, and it tells me that traders are in a holding pattern, waiting for new information or a catalyst before committing in either direction.

What stands out today is the volume. It was the heaviest we’ve seen since the stock made its high two weeks ago. When volume begins to increase inside a consolidation zone, I start preparing for the possibility of a breakout.

For me, the key level is the 13.33 high. A decisive push above that area, especially if the volume confirms the move, would be enough to get my attention. Until then, I’m watching closely, letting the market show its hand. Keep CGEM on your radar, this setup could get interesting as things unfold.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

The Discipline to Do Nothing: Why Waiting Is a Trading Skill

Every trader loves the action, the rush of seeing a setup form, the excitement of pressing the buy button, the satisfaction of catching a move. But the truth is, those moments make up a tiny fraction of a trader’s career. What really shapes a trader’s long-term P&L isn’t what they do during their A+ setups; it’s what they do in between them. Many traders don’t lose money because they lack a good strategy, they lose money because they lack the discipline to do nothing.

The Market Doesn’t Pay You for Activity

One of the biggest misconceptions new traders have is that they need to be doing something all the time. They think productivity means trading. But the market doesn’t pay you for effort, it pays you for precision. It rewards patience, selectivity, and timing.

The idea that “more trades equals more profit” destroys accounts every day. In reality, traders who succeed long-term learn very quickly that the less they trade, the better they do. They take only the cleanest setups, the highest-probability moments, the situations where everything lines up. Everything else gets passed on.

Most people don’t fail because they chase bad setups; they fail because they can’t sit still.

The Real Battle Happens Between Trades

It’s easy to follow your plan when the perfect setup is right in front of you. Anyone can do that. The challenge is the space between trades, the flat times, the quiet times, the boring times. That’s where discipline is either built or destroyed.

This is where a trader asks themselves:

• Am I going to stick to my plan?

• Or am I going to trade just because I’m bored?

• Am I protecting my equity?

• Or am I gambling out of frustration?

Your P&L is shaped in those moments because impatience costs money. Every forced trade, every low-quality setup, every “maybe this will work” idea slowly bleeds an account. And the damage doesn’t stop there, it creates emotional baggage that affects the next A+ setup, too.

Trading isn’t about constant action. It’s about selective action.

Doing Nothing Is a Position

The market is always open, but that doesn’t mean you always have to participate. Staying in cash is a position. Flat is a position. Watching is a position. And sometimes, those are the most profitable decisions you can make.

Professional traders understand that waiting is not passive, it’s an active choice. It’s the choice to protect capital. It’s the choice to avoid unnecessary risk. It’s the choice to only step in when the odds tilt heavily in their favor.

And ironically, the more comfortable you become with doing nothing, the faster your account grows.

Your Future P&L Depends on Your Patience Today

If you want to improve your results, don’t just refine your strategy, refine your discipline. Learn to love the quiet times. Train yourself to sit on your hands. Understand that your edge doesn’t just come from what you do, but from what you refuse to do.

Anyone can trade when the setup is perfect.
Only disciplined traders can stay out when it’s not.

In the end, your trading success will be defined not by how much you trade, but by how well you wait.

For more relative strength insights and recent market posts, visit the homepage at The Relative Strength Trader

AMZN Lags the Market: Why 226.80 Matters

 

When I’m analyzing a stock I always pay close attention to how it behaves relative to the broader market. On the 2-hour chart of AMZN, with SPY plotted in the lower pane, something interesting happened on Friday that caught my eye. While the SPY pushed to a new swing high, clearly shown by the clean white trendline, AMZN failed to follow. Instead of matching the market’s strength, AMZN printed a lower high. In a rising market, that kind of divergence is often a warning sign.

To me, this signals relative weakness. When a stock can’t rally alongside the major index, especially during an upswing, it tells me buyers aren’t as enthusiastic as they should be. This doesn’t guarantee downside action, but it definitely raises a red flag.

The key level I’m watching now is the recent pivot low at 226.80. If AMZN breaks below that level, it would confirm this weakness and open the door for a move down toward the next support zone near 215. That’s the area I think price could gravitate toward if sellers step in with conviction.

I’ll also be keeping a close eye on volume. Weak breakdowns don’t mean much, but if we see expanding volume alongside any violation of 226.80, that would strengthen the bearish case. And, of course, overall market conditions matter. If SPY starts to roll over or shows signs of fatigue, that would only add fuel to the scenario.

For now, AMZN’s divergence stands out  and I’ll be watching closely to see if it turns into something bigger.