Watching for a Bottom: CURLF Tests Gap Support in a Young Bull Market

 Well, it was another red day for the cannabis stocks, and days like this can test both patience and conviction. Above is a daily chart of CURLF, and as you can see, price is now approaching the open gap near the 2.70 level. Gaps often act like magnets, and it’s not surprising to see the stock work its way back toward that area before deciding on its next meaningful move.

What’s encouraging, at least so far, is what’s happening with volume. Over the past two sessions, volume has been declining as we test this potential support zone. To me, that suggests selling pressure may be starting to dry up. When a stock pulls back on lighter volume, it often signals that weak hands are exiting and stronger hands are beginning to take control. This is exactly the type of behavior I want to see if a durable low is going to form.

From here, I’ll be watching closely for signs that CURLF is bottoming. Relative strength is high on my list, if the stock can start to outperform the broader market or its peers even while price is still basing, that’s an important tell. I’ll also be looking for clear price based signals such as a reversal bar, a bullish engulfing pattern, or any decisive rejection of lower prices. Those are the footprints buyers tend to leave behind before a meaningful turn higher.

This pullback is the first real test in what I believe could be the early stages of a new bull market for the group. That belief hasn’t been proven yet, and the market will ultimately decide. For now, patience is key. While CURLF works through this area, other names in the space, such as TLRY which I wrote about yesterday will remain on my close watch list. Sometimes leadership rotates, and being prepared is half the battle.

Patience at Support: Watching TLRY’s First Pullback

 Above is a daily chart of TLRY, and as you can see this stock is now pulling back. I continue to view this pullback as a retracement within what I believe is a new bull market, not the start of something more sinister. In environments like this, my focus shifts from chasing strength to identifying high quality pullbacks into logical areas of support.

One level that immediately stands out on TLRY is the $10.00 to $10.70 zone. This area represents the stock’s first real test of support since the recent push higher, and first tests are often the most important. What makes this zone especially compelling is its history. You can see on the chart where this area has previously acted as both support and resistance, marked by the arrows. When former resistance turns into support, I pay attention.

Adding to the importance of this level is the fact that it lines up with the bottom of that large green candle from a few days ago. Big expansion candles often leave behind footprints, and the low of that candle becomes a reference point for big money that participated in the move. When multiple forms of support converge, it creates a level that deserves respect.

That said, I’m not interested in blindly buying just because price enters a zone. Patience is part of my edge. I want to see evidence that buyers are stepping back in. That could come in the form of bottoming tails, bullish engulfing patterns, or clear relative strength versus the market. Those signals tell me demand is asserting itself again.

Until I see that confirmation, I’m content to stay the course and keep my powder dry. Opportunities come and go, but disciplined entries at well-defined levels are what keep me on the right side of the trade over time.

Relative Strength and Compression: Why TSLA Is on My Radar

 

Above is a daily chart of TSLA, and in the lower pane I have the SPY plotted for comparison. The very first thing that jumps out at me is the clear divergence between the two. Over the past ten days, the SPY has been trending lower, making new lows along the way, while TSLA has been doing the exact opposite, grinding higher. That’s classic relative strength, and it’s something I always pay close attention to. When the broader market is under pressure but an individual stock refuses to break down, it tells me demand is present beneath the surface. Buyers are stepping in, and they’re doing so with conviction.

To me, relative strength isn’t just about outperforming on a percentage basis. It’s about behavior. When the market is weak and a stock won’t follow it lower, that’s information. In TSLA’s case, the stock has absorbed selling pressure from the broader tape and still managed to push higher. That suggests institutions may be accumulating shares, or at the very least, supply is being absorbed.

Adding to my interest is the fact that TSLA has now printed back to back inside days. The daily range is narrowing, volatility is contracting, and price is coiling. Inside days often act like a pause before the next move, and when they show up alongside relative strength, I pay even closer attention. This kind of compression can store energy, setting the stage for an expansion move.

The level I’m watching is the high of the mother candle at 495.28. A decisive break above that level could trigger a breakout and potentially carry TSLA toward the psychologically important $500 area. Whether or not that move materializes immediately, TSLA is clearly acting better than the market, and for me, that alone makes it a stock worth keeping on my radar.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Leak: How Cannabis Stocks Collapsed Before the Signing

 

Today was a perfect case study in how markets trade expectations, not outcomes, especially in cannabis.

Coming into the session, cannabis stocks were bid on anticipation. The story had been well telegraphed. President Trump was expected to sign an executive order directing the attorney general to expedite and complete the rescheduling of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. That alone would be meaningful opening the door to more medical research and critically allowing cannabis companies to take normal tax deductions by removing the crushing 280E burden. Add in headlines about a lifeline to the hemp industry, Medicare-eligible CBD under doctor recommendation, and expanded research, and you could feel the optimism building.

Then the leak hit.

Before the signing even happened, details of the executive order leaked out, and the market’s reaction was swift and brutal. MSOS, the cannabis ETF that has become the proxy for the entire sector, rolled over hard and collapsed. It wasn’t that the news was bad. In fact, much of it was constructive. But it wasn’t new enough, big enough, or clean enough to justify the run-up that preceded it.

That’s the part traders struggle with. By the time something is “confirmed,” the trade is often already crowded. When the details came out no immediate legalization, no explicit cannabis banking reform, no clemency language mentioned, the air came out of the balloon. “Expedite” and “complete” the rescheduling process sounds good politically, but markets wanted certainty and timelines, not process language.

The White House briefing emphasized “common sense” reform, focused on increasing medical research for marijuana and CBD, informing doctors and patients, and removing barriers that exist because cannabis is still technically Schedule I. It also outlined efforts to expand access to full-spectrum CBD, potentially through Medicare models administered by CMS, and urged Congress to revisit the definition of hemp. All positive but incremental.

And incremental doesn’t excite traders who were positioned for a catalyst.

So the sector sold off, hard. This wasn’t a judgment on the long-term value of rescheduling; it was a reset of expectations. The leak turned a “buy the rumor” setup into a classic “sell the news” event before the news even officially hit.

Looking at the chart above on the left, we see the daily chart of MSOS, and it’s hard to ignore today's multi-day engulfing pattern that has formed.

On the right is a 5-minute chart of MSOS with SPY plotted in the lower pane for comparison. This is where the real tell showed up. Early in the morning, the broader market pushed to a new high, but MSOS didn’t confirm it. While SPY was pressing higher, MSOS lagged and failed to make a new high of its own. That non-confirmation immediately stood out to me as potentially bearish.  I even mentioned this on social media that "something doesn't seem right". MSOS  didn’t feel strong "it felt heavy".

And yet, I ignored it.

Instead of respecting what price and relative strength were telling me, I anchored on the 1:30 announcement that was coming later in the day. I convinced myself the catalyst would override the warning signs on the chart. That was a mistake. When the move finally came, it wasn’t in my favor. In a matter of minutes, I gave back substantial profits that had taken much longer to build.

It was a painful reminder that charts lead, headlines follow and when the market is talking, I need to listen..

When Relative Weakness Leads the Way in NVDA

 

Above is a daily chart of NVDA, and in the lower pane I’ve plotted a ratio line of NVDA versus the SPY. This is one of my favorite ways to strip away the noise and see what a stock is really doing relative to the broader market. When that ratio line starts to lead, I pay very close attention.

Today NVDA broke a minor support level, and that alone is worth noting. But what really caught my eye is what’s happening beneath the surface. The ratio line has already broken down to a new low, well ahead of any dramatic move in price. That tells me NVDA is not just pulling back with the market, it’s underperforming it. This kind of relative weakness often shows up before price makes a more meaningful move lower.

From a trading perspective, aggressive traders had an opportunity today. When that minor support gave way, a partial short on the break made sense, especially with the ratio line already confirming weakness. When price and relative strength align like that, I’m much more confident in the trade thesis.

Looking ahead, the level I’m focused on now is 169.55. This is a more significant support area, and it’s where things could really get interesting. If NVDA breaks below that level, especially if the ratio line continues to make new lows, it could open the door to further downside over the coming days. That’s the spot where I’m watching for a potential add or a fresh entry.

The key takeaway for me is simple,  price tells you what is happening, but relative strength often tells you what’s about to happen. Right now, the ratio line is flashing a clear warning that NVDA is weaker than it appears on price alone.