DJT: Heavy Volume at Major Monthly Support Has My Attention

 

I’d like to talk about a trade I’m currently stalking, one that has been quietly working its way onto my radar. On the right side of the chart above is a monthly chart of DJT, and the first thing that jumps out at me is that we’ve just tested major monthly support. This is an area that has mattered in the past, and history shows us that on three prior occasions, price rallied sharply after testing this same zone. That alone is enough to make me pay attention.

What really adds weight to this level, however, is volume. December printed the heaviest monthly volume we’ve seen in the past year, and importantly, DJT managed to close the month positive. When I see heavy volume coming in at a long-term support level and price refuses to break down, I start thinking in terms of accumulation rather than distribution. That combination of support and volume is not something I ignore.

Now let’s zoom in to the 60-minute timeframe, where the SPY is plotted in the lower pane for comparison. This is where things get even more interesting. On Wednesday, DJT began to diverge from the SPY, as highlighted at points A and B. While the broader market was weakening, DJT held firm and even pushed higher. To me, this is an early sign of relative strength, suggesting that buyers are stepping in ahead of the market.

From a structural standpoint, DJT has also broken its downtrend line on this timeframe. That’s a meaningful development. If this holds, we may be in the process of forming the first higher low of a new short-term uptrend. When structure starts to improve at the same time relative strength appears, I take notice.

When I put all of this together, heavy volume at major monthly support, improving structure on the 60-minute chart, and early signs of relative strength, we start to see the makings of a potential long setup. For me, I’ll be watching Wednesday’s high at 13.80 as a possible long entry trigger.

This is not a recommendation. It’s simply what I’m watching and how I’m thinking about it. DJT is worth keeping on your radar.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

RDW: Record Monthly Volume at Major Support Tells an Important Story

 

One of the most important developments in RDW this past month hasn’t been price alone, but volume. December gave us record monthly volume, and that’s something I don’t ignore especially when it occurs near a well-defined support level.

First, let’s talk about why this volume is showing up.

RDW sits at the crossroads of several powerful narratives: space infrastructure, defense spending, and government-backed contracts. Over the past few weeks, renewed attention around space and defense names has brought speculative capital back into the group. Even incremental contract headlines, analyst commentary, or sector chatter can act as fuel in a stock with RDW’s structure.

Another factor is options activity. We’ve seen increased call buying in RDW, which often forces market makers to hedge by purchasing shares. That process alone can significantly inflate trading volume, especially in a stock with a relatively modest float.

But volume without context doesn’t mean much. What matters is where it’s occurring.

As highlighted on the chart above, RDW has held major support near the $5 area. Despite heavy trading, sellers have been unable to push price decisively below this level. That’s a key tell. When record volume shows up and price stops going down, it suggests absorption rather than distribution. In other words, supply is being met by demand.

This type of action often marks a transition phase from downtrend to basing, or from weak hands to stronger ones. It doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does tell me risk is becoming better defined. Support is clear. Participation is rising. Something is changing.

For now, I’m less focused on predicting the next headline and more focused on respecting what price and volume are already telling us. And right now, RDW is sending a message worth paying attention to.

For those who want more context, you can read my earlier analysis on RDW as a potential long entry here.

MSOS at Year End: What Institutional Ownership Is Telling Us

 

Above is a chart of MSOS Institutional ownership. What's worth talking about is that institutional participation in MSOS has materially increased, and not just marginally. The number of institutional owners rose to 180, with a 15.38% increase quarter over quarter, which tells me this isn’t just passive drift, it’s active engagement. Even more important is how they’re positioning: 169 long only funds versus zero short only funds. That imbalance matters. Institutions may hedge elsewhere, but when outright short only exposure disappears, it often signals a shift in perceived downside risk.

The real headline though is the 68.61% MRQ surge in institutional shares held, an increase of 22.88 million shares. That’s aggressive accumulation, not window dressing. When ownership expands at that rate, especially in a sector that has been left for dead sentiment wise, it often reflects longer-term positioning rather than short-term trading.

The average portfolio allocation of just 0.2766% also tells an important story. Institutions are involved, but this is still a toe in the water position size. Historically, that’s exactly where leadership themes begin, small allocations that can later be scaled if price and relative strength confirm. From a contrarian standpoint, that’s constructive.

Looking at the shareholder list, names like Suvretta Capital, Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, and Citigroup reinforce that liquidity providers and sophisticated funds are active here. That doesn’t guarantee upside, but it does improve market structure and reduces the odds that price action is purely retail driven.

Finally, price performance supports the narrative. MSOS rose from $3.81 to $4.71, a 23.6% gain year over year. That’s not explosive, but in the context of a deeply out of favor sector, it suggests stabilization and accumulation, not distribution.

Put it all together, I don’t see euphoria but I do see quiet institutional interest building beneath the surface, which is often how durable turns begin. Now lets take a look at the record monthly volume we are seeing for the month of December.

As we close out the year, one of the more underappreciated developments in MSOS has been the record monthly volume we saw during December. Volume doesn’t get nearly the attention that price does, but in many ways it tells the more important story. Price shows where something is trading; volume tells you who is involved.

December’s surge in volume stands out not just because it set a record, but because it came after a long period of relative dormancy in the cannabis space. This hasn’t been a momentum driven sector, and participation has been thin for much of the past couple of years. When volume expands this dramatically, especially at year end, it’s rarely accidental.

This ties in closely with the recent data on institutional ownership, which shows a sharp increase in shares held and a notable absence of short-only institutional positioning. Institutions don’t build positions quietly without liquidity. They need volume to enter, adjust, and rebalance exposure efficiently. Record volume provides exactly that kind of environment.

What’s also important is that this volume increase has not been accompanied by euphoric price action. MSOS is higher year-over-year, but not extended. That combination, heavy volume without runaway price often suggests accumulation or absorption rather than speculative excess. In other words, shares are changing hands, but not being aggressively marked up.

From a market structure standpoint, rising institutional ownership alongside record volume improves liquidity, tightens spreads, and lays the groundwork for more sustained moves down the road. It doesn’t guarantee upside, but it does suggest that MSOS is no longer being ignored.

Some other names besides MSOS with record monthly volume are MSOX, TLRY, TCNNF,CRLBF, GTBIF, YCBD and CGC. At year end, that shift in participation is worth paying attention to.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Why Uranium Stocks Are Weaker Than They Look

 About a month ago, I started to think that some of the uranium and nuclear stocks might be in the process of putting in a bottom. At the time, the selling pressure appeared to be easing and price action was starting to stabilize. Since then however, the message from the market has changed, and what has been unfolding over the past few weeks is something I want to focus on, relative weakness.

Above, I’m looking at a daily chart of URA. Below that is the SPY on a daily timeframe, and in the bottom pane is a ratio line of URA versus SPY. When I compare these two, the divergence becomes clear. URA has been making a series of lower highs, marked at points A, B, and C, while SPY continues to print higher highs. That’s a classic warning sign. When the broader market is pushing higher and a sector can’t keep up, it usually means there’s consistent selling pressure beneath the surface.

If you only looked at URA’s price chart in isolation, you might conclude that it’s simply moving sideways. Over the last four weeks, price has gone nowhere, chopping back and forth in a range. But when I view this through the lens of relative strength and relative weakness, the picture becomes far more bearish. Sideways price action during a rising market is not neutral, it’s a sign of underperformance.

The ratio line in the bottom pane really drives the point home. URA versus SPY is now breaking down to a new swing low before price itself has broken support. This is something I pay very close attention to. When relative strength deteriorates ahead of price, it often acts as an early warning that lower prices may be coming.

We’re already seeing confirmation in individual names. Stocks like NNE have broken down first and is now leading to the downside, which is often how sector-wide weakness begins. Leaders crack, and the rest tend to follow.

If URA breaks minor support near 42.63, I think the path of least resistance points lower, and we could see additional weakness in the days ahead. For now, the takeaway is simple, what looked like a potential bottom a month ago has turned into a clear case of relative weakness, and that’s something I’m not willing to ignore.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

RDW Update: Trendline Break Signals Start of Rally

 A couple of days ago I talked about a potential trade setting up in RDW, and today that setup finally triggered, so I wanted to give a quick update. As I mentioned at the time, I was watching RDW closely for a bounce due to the combination of the channel structure and a cyclical low that was coming due. When those two elements line up, I pay attention, because it often creates a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.

Today the entry came on a clean break of the descending trendline, which triggered right around the 7.30 area. Once that level was cleared, price responded quickly, confirming that buyers were waiting for that signal. RDW went on to rally to an intraday high of 8.09, which was a solid first move and exactly what I wanted to see shortly after entry.

At this point, I’m expecting the rally to continue for at least a few more days. If momentum stays intact, it’s quite possible RDW works its way toward the top of the channel, which currently comes in around the 9.50 to 9.75 area. That zone would be a logical area for price to encounter resistance, and I’ll be watching closely if and when we get there.

Risk management remains key. My protective stop is set just below 6.80, a level that would invalidate the trade if price were to roll back over. Until then, the plan is to let the trade work and see how much upside the market is willing to give.

For now, the trade is doing what it’s supposed to do. We’ll see if RDW can continue to build on today’s strength as the days unfold.

If you missed it, I outlined the original RDW bounce setup in detail in my previous post