MSOS at Year End: What Institutional Ownership Is Telling Us

 

Above is a chart of MSOS Institutional ownership. What's worth talking about is that institutional participation in MSOS has materially increased, and not just marginally. The number of institutional owners rose to 180, with a 15.38% increase quarter over quarter, which tells me this isn’t just passive drift, it’s active engagement. Even more important is how they’re positioning: 169 long only funds versus zero short only funds. That imbalance matters. Institutions may hedge elsewhere, but when outright short only exposure disappears, it often signals a shift in perceived downside risk.

The real headline though is the 68.61% MRQ surge in institutional shares held, an increase of 22.88 million shares. That’s aggressive accumulation, not window dressing. When ownership expands at that rate, especially in a sector that has been left for dead sentiment wise, it often reflects longer-term positioning rather than short-term trading.

The average portfolio allocation of just 0.2766% also tells an important story. Institutions are involved, but this is still a toe in the water position size. Historically, that’s exactly where leadership themes begin, small allocations that can later be scaled if price and relative strength confirm. From a contrarian standpoint, that’s constructive.

Looking at the shareholder list, names like Suvretta Capital, Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, and Citigroup reinforce that liquidity providers and sophisticated funds are active here. That doesn’t guarantee upside, but it does improve market structure and reduces the odds that price action is purely retail driven.

Finally, price performance supports the narrative. MSOS rose from $3.81 to $4.71, a 23.6% gain year over year. That’s not explosive, but in the context of a deeply out of favor sector, it suggests stabilization and accumulation, not distribution.

Put it all together, I don’t see euphoria but I do see quiet institutional interest building beneath the surface, which is often how durable turns begin. Now lets take a look at the record monthly volume we are seeing for the month of December.

As we close out the year, one of the more underappreciated developments in MSOS has been the record monthly volume we saw during December. Volume doesn’t get nearly the attention that price does, but in many ways it tells the more important story. Price shows where something is trading; volume tells you who is involved.

December’s surge in volume stands out not just because it set a record, but because it came after a long period of relative dormancy in the cannabis space. This hasn’t been a momentum driven sector, and participation has been thin for much of the past couple of years. When volume expands this dramatically, especially at year end, it’s rarely accidental.

This ties in closely with the recent data on institutional ownership, which shows a sharp increase in shares held and a notable absence of short-only institutional positioning. Institutions don’t build positions quietly without liquidity. They need volume to enter, adjust, and rebalance exposure efficiently. Record volume provides exactly that kind of environment.

What’s also important is that this volume increase has not been accompanied by euphoric price action. MSOS is higher year-over-year, but not extended. That combination, heavy volume without runaway price often suggests accumulation or absorption rather than speculative excess. In other words, shares are changing hands, but not being aggressively marked up.

From a market structure standpoint, rising institutional ownership alongside record volume improves liquidity, tightens spreads, and lays the groundwork for more sustained moves down the road. It doesn’t guarantee upside, but it does suggest that MSOS is no longer being ignored.

Some other names besides MSOS with record monthly volume are MSOX, TLRY, TCNNF,CRLBF, GTBIF, YCBD and CGC. At year end, that shift in participation is worth paying attention to.

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Why Uranium Stocks Are Weaker Than They Look

 About a month ago, I started to think that some of the uranium and nuclear stocks might be in the process of putting in a bottom. At the time, the selling pressure appeared to be easing and price action was starting to stabilize. Since then however, the message from the market has changed, and what has been unfolding over the past few weeks is something I want to focus on, relative weakness.

Above, I’m looking at a daily chart of URA. Below that is the SPY on a daily timeframe, and in the bottom pane is a ratio line of URA versus SPY. When I compare these two, the divergence becomes clear. URA has been making a series of lower highs, marked at points A, B, and C, while SPY continues to print higher highs. That’s a classic warning sign. When the broader market is pushing higher and a sector can’t keep up, it usually means there’s consistent selling pressure beneath the surface.

If you only looked at URA’s price chart in isolation, you might conclude that it’s simply moving sideways. Over the last four weeks, price has gone nowhere, chopping back and forth in a range. But when I view this through the lens of relative strength and relative weakness, the picture becomes far more bearish. Sideways price action during a rising market is not neutral, it’s a sign of underperformance.

The ratio line in the bottom pane really drives the point home. URA versus SPY is now breaking down to a new swing low before price itself has broken support. This is something I pay very close attention to. When relative strength deteriorates ahead of price, it often acts as an early warning that lower prices may be coming.

We’re already seeing confirmation in individual names. Stocks like NNE have broken down first and is now leading to the downside, which is often how sector-wide weakness begins. Leaders crack, and the rest tend to follow.

If URA breaks minor support near 42.63, I think the path of least resistance points lower, and we could see additional weakness in the days ahead. For now, the takeaway is simple, what looked like a potential bottom a month ago has turned into a clear case of relative weakness, and that’s something I’m not willing to ignore.

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RDW Update: Trendline Break Signals Start of Rally

 A couple of days ago I talked about a potential trade setting up in RDW, and today that setup finally triggered, so I wanted to give a quick update. As I mentioned at the time, I was watching RDW closely for a bounce due to the combination of the channel structure and a cyclical low that was coming due. When those two elements line up, I pay attention, because it often creates a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.

Today the entry came on a clean break of the descending trendline, which triggered right around the 7.30 area. Once that level was cleared, price responded quickly, confirming that buyers were waiting for that signal. RDW went on to rally to an intraday high of 8.09, which was a solid first move and exactly what I wanted to see shortly after entry.

At this point, I’m expecting the rally to continue for at least a few more days. If momentum stays intact, it’s quite possible RDW works its way toward the top of the channel, which currently comes in around the 9.50 to 9.75 area. That zone would be a logical area for price to encounter resistance, and I’ll be watching closely if and when we get there.

Risk management remains key. My protective stop is set just below 6.80, a level that would invalidate the trade if price were to roll back over. Until then, the plan is to let the trade work and see how much upside the market is willing to give.

For now, the trade is doing what it’s supposed to do. We’ll see if RDW can continue to build on today’s strength as the days unfold.

If you missed it, I outlined the original RDW bounce setup in detail in my previous post

What Happened to TLRY While MSOS Bounced?

 

What happened to TLRY today? That was the question I kept asking myself as the session unfolded. We finally saw a little bit of life in MSOS today, yet TLRY continued to move in the opposite direction. Instead of participating in the bounce, it showed clear signs of relative weakness, and the intraday action made that obvious if you knew where to look.

On the chart to the left, I’m looking at a 2-minute chart of TLRY, with a 2-minute chart of MSOS below it for comparison. Around 1:30 ET, MSOS pushed to a new high on the day. That should have been an invitation for TLRY to at least attempt a higher high of its own. Instead, TLRY failed to confirm the move and printed a lower high. That divergence immediately stood out to me as a textbook example of relative weakness.

When a peer or sector ETF is making new highs and a stock can’t keep up, that’s usually a warning. Sure enough, once minor intraday support gave way, TLRY rolled over and began trending lower for the rest of the session, ultimately closing on its low. That’s not the kind of behavior I want to see when I’m looking to add exposure.

To be clear, this wasn’t easy to watch. I’m actually long TLRY from the summer lows, and my intention has been to add to that position when the conditions line up. Unfortunately, today’s relative weakness clearly told me the stock isn’t ready just yet. The market was giving us information, and ignoring it would be a mistake.

Looking at the daily chart on the right only reinforces that caution. TLRY appears to be working its way toward a gap fill that extends down to the 8.43 area. Today also marked the seventh consecutive session of lower daily highs, which tells me sellers are still firmly in control of the trend.

My game plan hasn’t changed. I’m not interested in guessing bottoms. I want to see TLRY take out a prior day’s high or start showing clear signs of relative strength versus MSOS before stepping in again. Until then, this remains a bounce watch name for me. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

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MSOS Flashes Relative Strength After 6 days of Lower Highs

 Well, MSOS has finally done something it hasn’t been able to do in over a week, it took out a previous day’s high after printing six consecutive lower daily highs. If you’ve been following along, you know I’ve been stalking this trade and writing about it for several days now, waiting to see if the character of the price action would finally change.

Looking at the market through the lens of relative strength, today offered an early tell well before MSOS pushed through the closely watched 4.87 level I’ve been referencing. On the left chart, I’m looking at a 2-minute chart of MSOS, with SPY plotted in the lower pane for comparison. Around 10:12 ET, SPY pushed down to a fresh low on the day. MSOS, however, refused to follow. Instead of making a new low, it put in a much higher low. That divergence immediately caught my attention.

That’s classic relative strength. When the broader market is making new lows but a stock or ETF holds firm, it tells me buyers are stepping in and asserting control. That’s something we simply haven’t seen in MSOS over the past seven trading days. The tone had clearly shifted. Once MSOS broke above the 4.58 intraday high, momentum picked up and price pushed as high as 4.89 before pulling back, eventually closing the day at 4.71.

On the right, the daily chart shows why today matters. In my opinion, we may have finally turned the corner and started carving out some kind of bottom. Daily volume did tick up slightly, which is constructive, but I’ll be honest, I wasn’t impressed with the close. Ideally, I would have liked to see MSOS finish much closer to the $5 level to really drive the point home. We didn’t get that.

Adding to my hesitation was the action in other cannabis names. TLRY, CGC, YCBD, SNDL, and VFF all showed signs of weakness today. So while the day started with encouraging signals and a strong relative strength setup, the lack of follow-through late in the session left me cautious.

For now, the message is mixed. The early strength was real, but the close leaves questions unanswered. We’ll see how things unfold tomorrow.

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