CRML Breaks Out of an 8-Week Base on Strong Volume — Now Watching the Pullback

 What a nice three-day move CRML has put together, culminating in today’s breakout from an eight-week trading range. These are the types of moves that immediately get my attention, not just because of the price action itself, but because of how the move is unfolding. Today’s breakout didn’t happen quietly, it came with above average volume, which tells me there is real participation behind the move and not just a low-liquidity pop.

Another thing worth noting is that CRML has now posted three consecutive green days. That kind of short-term momentum, especially coming out of a prolonged consolidation, often signals a shift in character. The stock has gone from being ignored to being actively accumulated. Adding to that, CRML is trading above $13 in after-hours action, which reinforces the idea that buyers are still engaged even after the closing bell.

That said, I don’t think this is a spot to chase the stock. Chasing breakouts after extended green candles is usually how risk gets skewed the wrong way. Instead, I’d much rather exercise patience and let the stock come back to me. The key breakout level was right around the 10.75 area, and that zone now stands out as an important area of former resistance turned potential support. A pullback into that region is exactly where my interest would increase.

If CRML does retrace back toward that 10.75 area, I won’t blindly buy it just because price is there. I’ll be looking for some form of confirmation. That could be improving relative strength versus the market, a clear reversal bar, a bottoming tail showing rejection of lower prices, or even a simple trendline break on a lower timeframe. Any of those would help confirm that buyers are stepping back in and defending that level.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, this stock has the look of something that could emerge as a leader within its sector. Breakouts from long bases, supported by volume and followed by constructive pullbacks, are often how leadership names are born. For now, CRML is firmly on my radar. I’m not in a rush, but if it sets up the right way, it could present a very compelling opportunity.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

NFLX Shows Relative Weakness: Inside Day Sets Up Potential Short

 

For weeks, I’ve been highlighting the relative weakness we’ve been seeing in NFLX and today’s action gives us another potential setup for a short. Above is a 60-minute chart of NFLX, with the SPY in the lower pane for comparison. What really stands out to me is the disconnect between NFLX and the broader market. SPY gapped up higher today and even took out Friday’s high, yet NFLX couldn’t get halfway through Friday’s range. That inability to keep pace in a strong market is exactly what I look for when hunting for relative weakness.

On top of that, NFLX put in an inside day today. I always pay attention to inside days because they can set up low-risk entries, whether you’re going long or short. In this case, the inside day following a lower high in a stock that’s lagging the market gives me a short bias. The way I plan to play this is to watch for a break below the low of the mother candle which is 90.81. That would be my trigger to enter a short position, confirming the relative weakness I’ve been tracking.

Of course, context matters. If the overall market starts heading lower as well, that adds more weight to the setup and increases the likelihood that the trade will work out. I’ll be monitoring not just NFLX, but the broader market action to see if it aligns with this bearish bias.

As always, I’m letting the chart guide me. The combination of a lower high in a strong market and an inside day makes this a textbook relative weakness setup. I’ll be watching closely to see how things unfold and will be ready to act if NFLX takes out the low of the mother candle. 

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

TLRY Inside Day Shows Relative Strength: Watching 9.85 for a Low-Risk Entry

 

Today was a quiet day for TLRY, but it still managed to put in an inside day, and that’s exactly the kind of setup I like to watch closely. Inside days often indicate indecision in the market, but in this case, I see it as an opportunity. I’m very interested in buying some TLRY over Friday’s high at 9.85. That level is key for me because a break above it would suggest that the stock is ready to resume its upward move.

What I really like about this inside day is how it shows relative strength compared to MSOS. Today MSOS dipped below Friday and Thursday’s lows, yet TLRY didn’t follow suit. It’s still holding above Friday’s low, which tells me that there’s underlying strength in this stock. That divergence is exactly what I look for when trying to spot low-risk entry points. If TLRY can push past Friday’s high, it will confirm that relative strength, and I’ll feel confident adding to my position.

I’m also keeping an eye on the weekly chart, which I posted about the other day. TLRY tends to pull back for about two weeks before resuming its uptrend, and that’s exactly where we are now. The stock is settling into that short-term consolidation, which could give us a nice springboard for the next leg higher. When a daily inside day lines up with a weekly pullback like this, it often marks a low-risk setup for entering a position before the next upward move.

For now, I’ll be watching TLRY closely, particularly around that 9.85 level. A clean break over that high could trigger a move that carries the stock higher in line with its historical pattern. Until then, I’m patient, observing the action and waiting for the market to give me the confirmation I need. If all aligns, this inside day could be the perfect opportunity to enter and ride the next leg of the trend.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

LHSW Draws Heavy Volume as $1 Level Comes Into Focus

 

Above is a daily chart of LHSW, and what immediately gets my attention is the sheer volume that came through today. For a stock with such a short trading history, today’s action was a clear outlier. More than 27 million shares traded, easily the heaviest volume this name has seen so far with the stock closing higher on the day finishing up 53%. That combination of elevated volume without a sharp selloff is something I always pay attention to, especially in lower-priced stocks where momentum can build quickly once interest shows up.

From a technical perspective, the $1 level is now the key area I’m watching. A move through that level tomorrow could be important, not just psychologically, but technically as well. If buyers can push LHSW over $1 with conviction, there’s a good chance that momentum carries it right into the downtrend line shown on the chart. Even better would be a clean break of that downtrend line, which could signal that the character of the stock is starting to change, at least in the short term.

One thing worth noting, and something that still amazes me, is that some brokers are restricting trading in this stock. From what I understand, Schwab won’t allow online orders and requires you to call in the trade. It’s hard to believe that in this day and age, with everything electronic and instant, investors are being asked to place trades over the phone. If you’re interested in trading LHSW, it’s probably a good idea to check with your broker ahead of time so there are no surprises if momentum really starts to pick up.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Cashing In on the 6-Day Cycle: Taking Profits and Waiting for the Next Setup

What a great trade this turned out to be. Last week I highlighted the 6-day cycle rhythm that has been clearly pulsing through this market, and it ended up playing out almost textbook. I’ve learned over time that when a cycle aligns with a well defined channel, it often creates a low-risk, high-reward opportunity. That was exactly the setup we had, and it was one of those moments where patience and structure really paid off.

When I initially wrote about the trade, my target was fairly straightforward, the top of the channel. I wasn’t trying to be overly aggressive or predictive beyond what the chart was giving me. Today, not only did price reach that area, it actually surpassed it, which is always a welcome surprise. With that move, I decided to take action and exited roughly 90% of my position. Locking in gains is never something I regret, especially when price has met and exceeded the original objective. I’ve kept a small piece on though, just in case momentum continues and the market wants to push a bit further.

Now my focus shifts to what comes next. The next 6-day cyclical low is projected for Wednesday morning, and that’s the key timing window I’m watching. Ideally, I’d like to see a controlled pullback into that window, potentially down toward the $9 area, which also happens to be the prior high. Former resistance turning into support is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see if this market is going to stay constructive.

If we do get that pullback late Tuesday or early Wednesday, I’m not interested in guessing. I’ll be watching closely for confirmation. A break of a short-term downtrend line, a bullish engulfing candle, and, most importantly, improving relative strength would all get my attention. Until then, there’s nothing to force. Trades like this work best when price, time, and structure all line up again. For now, I’ll stay patient, manage what’s left of the position, and let the market show its hand.

If you’d like to see the original analysis where I outlined the 6-day cycle and channel setup ahead of this move, you can read that post here.