TSLA Underperforms as the Market Rallies: A Case Study in Relative Weakness

 

What is going on with TSLA? That’s the question I kept asking myself today as I watched a very strong overall market continue to push higher while TSLA struggled yet again. Day after day we’ve seen strength across the indices, yet TSLA has consistently failed to participate, and today was no different.

Above is a 3-minute chart of TSLA, and in the lower pane I’m using a 3-minute chart of SPY for comparison. When I line these two up, the divergence becomes obvious. From point A to point B on the SPY, the S&P 500 is clearly trending higher, making strong, decisive highs. In a healthy market environment like this, you would normally expect leadership stocks or at least widely followed names like TSLA to mirror that strength. But that simply didn’t happen.

Instead, TSLA made a much lower high at point B compared to point A. While the market was pushing forward, TSLA was already rolling over. That’s classic relative weakness, and it immediately put TSLA on my radar. This wasn’t subtle either. The market was sending one message, and TSLA was sending the exact opposite.

One of the things I love most about analyzing the market through the lens of relative strength or in this case relative weakness, is how consistent it is across timeframes. It really doesn’t matter whether I’m looking at a 1-minute chart, 2-minute, 3-minute, 5-minute, or even a 10-minute chart. That divergence is still there. The story doesn’t change. TSLA is underperforming SPY, regardless of the timeframe you choose.

That consistency is a breath of fresh air compared to traditional indicators like moving averages or oscillators. Those tools often give you completely different signals depending on the arbitrary timeframe you happen to be looking at. One chart might say buy, another might say sell, and suddenly you’re second-guessing everything. Relative strength cuts through that noise. If a stock is weak relative to the market, it stays weak no matter how you slice the timeframe.

Once the divergence in TSLA was identified, the next key moment was the break of support. When that level gave way, it confirmed what the relative weakness had already been telling us. From there, TSLA proceeded to move lower all the way down to point C, even as the broader market remained strong.

To me, this was just a textbook example of how relative weakness can work even in a strong tape. The market doesn’t need to be falling for individual stocks to break down. Money rotates, leaders change, and TSLA showed very clearly today that it was not where capital wanted to be.

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NVDA vs SPY: Why This Divergence Warrants Caution

 Above is a 60-minute chart of NVDA, and in the lower pane I’m comparing it to the SPY using a relative strength ratio. What stands out to me is the clear divergence we saw today. The S&P 500 pushed to a new high, yet NVDA failed to do the same. That alone gets my attention, especially given how closely NVDA has tracked the broader market during strong momentum phases in the past.

Over the last six trading days, NVDA has essentially gone nowhere. On its own, a consolidation isn’t necessarily bearish. In strong trends, pauses are healthy. However, when I zoom out and view this action through the lens of relative strength, the picture starts to change.

During this consolidation, the relative strength line is making a new low before price does. That’s an important detail. When the ratio breaks down ahead of price, it often tells us that money is quietly rotating out of the stock even though price hasn’t fully reflected it yet. To me, this is one of the earliest signs of relative weakness, and it’s something I take seriously especially as a short-term trader.

This doesn’t mean NVDA is suddenly a bad stock. Far from it. Long term, NVDA remains one of the strongest leadership names in the market, and I still love it from a big picture perspective. But markets are about timing, and right now the short-term risk is increasing. The market is making new highs, yet NVDA is lagging, and that’s not a combination I want to ignore.

The key level I’m watching is support at 185.91. That level represents the most recent area where buyers stepped in. If price breaks below that support, it would confirm the weakness already showing up in the relative strength line. At that point, the odds would favor further downside, and the caution I’m feeling now would be validated.

Until that happens, I’m staying patient. As long as NVDA holds above 185.91, I’m not interested in shorting it. I don’t want to front-run a breakdown. For now, this is a stock on my watchlist not for new longs, not for shorts yet but as a name that may be transitioning from leadership to laggard if this relative weakness continues.

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CRML Breaks Out of an 8-Week Base on Strong Volume — Now Watching the Pullback

 What a nice three-day move CRML has put together, culminating in today’s breakout from an eight-week trading range. These are the types of moves that immediately get my attention, not just because of the price action itself, but because of how the move is unfolding. Today’s breakout didn’t happen quietly, it came with above average volume, which tells me there is real participation behind the move and not just a low-liquidity pop.

Another thing worth noting is that CRML has now posted three consecutive green days. That kind of short-term momentum, especially coming out of a prolonged consolidation, often signals a shift in character. The stock has gone from being ignored to being actively accumulated. Adding to that, CRML is trading above $13 in after-hours action, which reinforces the idea that buyers are still engaged even after the closing bell.

That said, I don’t think this is a spot to chase the stock. Chasing breakouts after extended green candles is usually how risk gets skewed the wrong way. Instead, I’d much rather exercise patience and let the stock come back to me. The key breakout level was right around the 10.75 area, and that zone now stands out as an important area of former resistance turned potential support. A pullback into that region is exactly where my interest would increase.

If CRML does retrace back toward that 10.75 area, I won’t blindly buy it just because price is there. I’ll be looking for some form of confirmation. That could be improving relative strength versus the market, a clear reversal bar, a bottoming tail showing rejection of lower prices, or even a simple trendline break on a lower timeframe. Any of those would help confirm that buyers are stepping back in and defending that level.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, this stock has the look of something that could emerge as a leader within its sector. Breakouts from long bases, supported by volume and followed by constructive pullbacks, are often how leadership names are born. For now, CRML is firmly on my radar. I’m not in a rush, but if it sets up the right way, it could present a very compelling opportunity.

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NFLX Shows Relative Weakness: Inside Day Sets Up Potential Short

 

For weeks, I’ve been highlighting the relative weakness we’ve been seeing in NFLX and today’s action gives us another potential setup for a short. Above is a 60-minute chart of NFLX, with the SPY in the lower pane for comparison. What really stands out to me is the disconnect between NFLX and the broader market. SPY gapped up higher today and even took out Friday’s high, yet NFLX couldn’t get halfway through Friday’s range. That inability to keep pace in a strong market is exactly what I look for when hunting for relative weakness.

On top of that, NFLX put in an inside day today. I always pay attention to inside days because they can set up low-risk entries, whether you’re going long or short. In this case, the inside day following a lower high in a stock that’s lagging the market gives me a short bias. The way I plan to play this is to watch for a break below the low of the mother candle which is 90.81. That would be my trigger to enter a short position, confirming the relative weakness I’ve been tracking.

Of course, context matters. If the overall market starts heading lower as well, that adds more weight to the setup and increases the likelihood that the trade will work out. I’ll be monitoring not just NFLX, but the broader market action to see if it aligns with this bearish bias.

As always, I’m letting the chart guide me. The combination of a lower high in a strong market and an inside day makes this a textbook relative weakness setup. I’ll be watching closely to see how things unfold and will be ready to act if NFLX takes out the low of the mother candle. 

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TLRY Inside Day Shows Relative Strength: Watching 9.85 for a Low-Risk Entry

 

Today was a quiet day for TLRY, but it still managed to put in an inside day, and that’s exactly the kind of setup I like to watch closely. Inside days often indicate indecision in the market, but in this case, I see it as an opportunity. I’m very interested in buying some TLRY over Friday’s high at 9.85. That level is key for me because a break above it would suggest that the stock is ready to resume its upward move.

What I really like about this inside day is how it shows relative strength compared to MSOS. Today MSOS dipped below Friday and Thursday’s lows, yet TLRY didn’t follow suit. It’s still holding above Friday’s low, which tells me that there’s underlying strength in this stock. That divergence is exactly what I look for when trying to spot low-risk entry points. If TLRY can push past Friday’s high, it will confirm that relative strength, and I’ll feel confident adding to my position.

I’m also keeping an eye on the weekly chart, which I posted about the other day. TLRY tends to pull back for about two weeks before resuming its uptrend, and that’s exactly where we are now. The stock is settling into that short-term consolidation, which could give us a nice springboard for the next leg higher. When a daily inside day lines up with a weekly pullback like this, it often marks a low-risk setup for entering a position before the next upward move.

For now, I’ll be watching TLRY closely, particularly around that 9.85 level. A clean break over that high could trigger a move that carries the stock higher in line with its historical pattern. Until then, I’m patient, observing the action and waiting for the market to give me the confirmation I need. If all aligns, this inside day could be the perfect opportunity to enter and ride the next leg of the trend.

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