Watching TLRY Into Earnings: Key Levels to Watch

 

Well, tomorrow (Thursday) after the close is a big day for TLRY as the company reports earnings. I’ve been watching this stock closely because it’s already in my portfolio, and while this is a long-term trade for me, earnings can create opportunities to add or adjust positions. Analysts are expecting EPS to be slightly negative or near breakeven, somewhere between –$0.03 and –$0.20 per share for the quarter, based on current forecasts. Revenue is expected to be modest and relatively flat year-over-year, roughly in the $210 million to $215 million range. These numbers aren’t surprising to me; they reflect the trend we’ve seen with Tilray over time. The company has often posted losses, but there’s been a clear focus on working toward profitability through cost discipline and segment optimization, which is encouraging from a long-term perspective.

After the earnings report, I’ll be watching two key levels closely. On the downside, I want to see if TLRY can close the gap at $8.43 and then watch to see if the stock can bounce off that area. That level could act as support and provide a low-risk opportunity to add to my position if the bounce is convincing. On the upside, if TLRY reacts positively to earnings, the $10 level will be critical. Clearing that level would be a strong bullish signal, and I would consider trading in that direction, potentially adding exposure or entering shorter-term trades that align with the momentum.

I’m already long TLRY, so this is fundamentally a long-term play for me, but these technical levels give me defined areas to potentially increase my position if the stock reacts in a bullish way. I’m not trying to predict exactly which way the market will move after earnings, but I want to be prepared to act when price confirms a move. Earnings can often create volatility, and having a plan for how to respond to key levels helps me stay disciplined. Tomorrow is going to be interesting, and I’ll be watching closely to see how the stock reacts and whether one of these setups presents itself.

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The Pullback I’m Waiting for in RDW

 Above is a 60-minute chart of RDW, and as you can clearly see, this stock remains in a strong uptrend. The higher highs and higher lows are well defined, and there’s no question that buyers are in control of the bigger picture. Even so, I have no interest in chasing strength. Chasing extended moves tends to increase risk and often leads to poor entries. Instead, I prefer to wait patiently for a pullback that offers a more favorable risk-reward setup.

Pullbacks within strong trends are where I like to focus my attention. They allow price to reset, shake out weak hands, and create opportunities to enter closer to support. In RDW’s case, the area I am watching closely is the 8.70 to 9.00 zone. This level previously acted as resistance, and in trending markets, former resistance often turns into support. That alone makes it an area worth paying attention to.

What strengthens this level even more is the rising channel I’ve drawn on the chart. The lower boundary of that channel lines up almost perfectly with the 8.70 to 9.00 area, creating a clear confluence zone. When multiple forms of support overlap, I tend to take those levels more seriously.

There’s also a measured aspect to this setup that I find compelling. The previous two pullbacks in this uptrend declined approximately $1.88 and $2.09. If the current pullback retraces about $2, it would bring price right into the zone I’m watching. That symmetry gives me a realistic expectation for how deep a normal pullback might be without damaging the overall trend.

Whether RDW pulls back into that area remains to be seen. But if it does, I’ll be ready.

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Relative Weakness in the DIA Signaled Trouble Early

 

Today was a great example of how effective relative strength analysis can be when trading the indices. Above is a 5-minute chart of the DIA, with the SPY shown in the lower pane for comparison. Around 12:00 ET, the market sent a very clear message if you knew where to look. While the SPY was pushing to new intraday highs, the DIA was unable to confirm that strength and instead was making a much lower high.

That divergence is classic relative weakness. When the broader market is strong and one index lags, it often signals distribution under the surface. In this case, the weakness in the Dow Jones Industrial stocks stood out clearly. Money simply was not flowing into those names the way it was into the broader market, and price was telling that story well before any major move unfolded.

As the session progressed, the DIA eventually broke its intraday low, which acted as support. Once that level gave way, the selling pressure increased and the DIA continued trending lower into the close. There was no need to predict or guess. The relative weakness had already done the heavy lifting by identifying where the market was vulnerable.

This is why I rely so heavily on relative strength and relative weakness in my trading. It helps filter out noise and keeps me focused on where money is actually moving. Days like today are a reminder that price relationships between markets often matter more than headlines or indicators. When one index can’t keep up with another, it’s usually worth paying attention.

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. Relative Weakness Exposed the XHB Short Before the News

 

Today was a great example of how relative weakness can tip you off to a short trade before the news ever hits the tape. Above is a 5-minute chart of XHB, the homebuilders ETF, with the SPY shown in the lower pane for comparison. Around 12:20 ET, something important stood out to me in real time. The SPY was pushing to new intraday highs, yet XHB was doing the exact opposite, it was putting in a lower high. That divergence immediately caught my attention.

When the broader market is strong and a sector can’t keep up, that’s relative weakness, plain and simple. It tells you money is quietly moving out, even if prices haven’t fully broken down yet. I saw it as it was unfolding, but I didn’t take the trade because I don’t actively day trade the homebuilders. Still, the message was clear: XHB was not confirming the market’s strength.

About ten minutes later, around 12:30 ET, the catalyst arrived. News broke that President Trump was taking steps toward banning large institutional investors from buying additional single-family homes. Almost instantly, homebuilding stocks sold off hard. Once XHB broke support, the selling accelerated and the move lower became decisive.

This is why I put so much emphasis on viewing the market through the lens of relative strength and relative weakness. It often reveals what the so-called smart money or large traders are doing well before the headlines appear. Were traders positioning themselves ahead of the news, and did that show up as relative weakness? Or was it all just coincidence? I’ll let you decide.

What I do know is that when I stick to relative strength analysis, I consistently find myself aligned with the right side of the market and days like today only reinforce why I trust this approach.

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MSOS Drifts Lower as the Market Shrugs Off Drug Czar News

 

Today was another one of those frustrating, low energy days for MSOS. Price action was dull, volume was uninspiring, and to make matters worse the ETF drifted slightly lower. That’s annoying for me personally because I’ve been stalking long setups for several days now and nothing is triggering. No clean breakouts, no decisive reversals just a lot of waiting. From my perspective, the line in the sand remains very clear: I want to see MSOS get back above $5. Until that happens, I’m not convinced we’ve truly turned the corner and are ready for a sustained move higher.

What made today more interesting or at least confusing was the news that hit around 2:00 PM. The Senate officially confirmed President Donald Trump’s pick for White House drug czar, Sara Carter Bailey, who will serve as director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy. Given her publicly stated stance on cannabis, I honestly expected the market to react more positively. Instead, we got a brief blip higher that quickly faded, followed by selling into the close.

That reaction tells me a lot. On paper, this should have been supportive news for the sector. Carter has been fairly pragmatic and open-minded when it comes to cannabis policy. She has explicitly supported medical cannabis, stated that she doesn’t have a “problem” with legalization even if she doesn’t personally advocate for it, and has described cannabis reform as a bipartisan issue. She’s also acknowledged that the administration kept all options on the table regarding rescheduling and didn’t push back when questioned by Senator Cory Booker about expanded research and reform. That’s about as reasonable a stance as you can hope for from someone in that role.

Yet the market shrugged it off. To me, that suggests either the news was already priced in, or more likely, that traders are still skeptical and want to see actual price confirmation, not just headlines. This is why I always come back to relative strength and price behavior. If the sector were truly under accumulation, we’d see it respond better to news like this.

For now, it’s still a waiting game. I remain interested, I remain constructive longer-term, but until MSOS proves itself by reclaiming key levels, patience is the only trade. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

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