IWM Sends a Loud Relative Strength Message

 

Today was a big day for IWM, and when you view the market through the lens of relative strength the way I do, the message on this chart was loud and clear. This is exactly the type of action I’m always watching for, because relative strength tends to show itself before the obvious price breakout that everyone else reacts to later.

Above, we have a 5-minute chart of IWM, with the middle pane showing the IWM vs SPY ratio, and the lower pane displaying a 5-minute chart of SPY. Before getting into today’s move, it’s important to first look at what happened yesterday. I’ve circled an area where IWM was essentially moving sideways yesterday. At first glance, that kind of price action might look uninteresting. But when I look at the relative strength line during that same period, it tells a very different story. While price was chopping around, the ratio line was moving sharply higher. That is a textbook sign of accumulation and relative strength. Even though price wasn’t advancing yet, money was clearly rotating into IWM beneath the surface.

Fast forward to today and that relative strength continued to assert itself. While the SPY opened the session making a lower swing low, clearly illustrated by the white trendlines, IWM did the opposite. It put in a higher low. That divergence is critical. When the broader market is weakening on an intraday basis but a stock or ETF refuses to break down and instead holds higher lows, it’s sending a strong message. Buyers are stepping in earlier and with more conviction.

Once resistance was broken, IWM did exactly what strong leaders tend to do. It pushed higher throughout the session and closed near the highs of the day. That type of close tells me there was no urgency to sell and that demand remained strong right into the bell.

If you shift your focus to the daily chart on the right, the bigger picture becomes even clearer. IWM is right on the verge of breaking out to a new closing  high. Compared to QQQ and SPY, IWM is clearly the leader right now. Over the past five trading days, the flow of money has been decisively moving into small caps, and the relative strength confirms it. This is exactly why I rely so heavily on relative strength, it keeps me aligned with where the market is actually going, not where I think it should go.

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Record Volume Puts NVVE on My Radar

 

Today was a big day for NVVE, as the stock surged 59% on record volume. Anytime I see that kind of price move paired with exceptional volume, it immediately gets my attention, especially when there is a clear news catalyst behind it. In this case, the move was driven by an announcement from Nuvve Japan K.K., which reported it has secured the rights to install and operate a grid-scale battery energy storage system in Oyada, Mino City, within Japan’s Gifu Prefecture.

According to the press release, the project will feature a rated output of 2MW with a storage capacity of 8MWh, providing a four-hour duration system. Operations are expected to begin in November 2026. While the project itself is still a ways off from going live, the importance of this news is what it represents. It shows progress, expansion, and tangible execution in a sector that investors are watching closely. That combination of forward-looking growth and confirmation through record volume is what made today’s move stand out to me.

Looking at the daily chart of NVVE, the next key area I’m focused on is the 6.50 to 6.75 zone. This is an important level because it represents the next meaningful area of potential resistance. How the stock behaves as it approaches that zone will tell me a lot about whether today’s move has legs or if it needs time to digest the gains.

As of after-hours trading, NVVE is trading about a dollar higher than the 4:00 close, which shows continued interest beyond the regular session. Even so, I’m not interested in chasing the stock after such a large one-day move. Instead, I’ll be watching closely for pullbacks on Thursday that could offer lower-risk buying opportunities. Strong stocks often provide second chances, and patience usually pays when volume and momentum are this extreme.

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MNTS Fills the Gap, Now Eyes Key Resistance

 Another strong day for MNTS, and this time it came on volume of over 25 million shares, which immediately tells me this move has participation behind it. Above is a daily chart of MNTS, and the first thing that stands out to me is that the stock has now filled its prior gap and has started to back off slightly. That type of action is completely normal. Gap fills are often areas where traders look to sell, lock in profits, or reduce exposure, so seeing some hesitation here is not a negative in my view.

What is notable is how well MNTS has held up despite that expected selling pressure. As of after-hours trading, the stock is trading around 15.70, which is roughly $1.80 higher than the 4:00 close. That kind of strength after the bell suggests there is still strong interest in the name and that buyers are willing to step in even after a big move.

Looking ahead, the most important level on my chart is clearly the $20 area. This is heavy overhead resistance and not a level I expect to be taken out easily. Back in the summer, $20 acted as support, and when that level finally broke, it flipped roles and became resistance. We saw that resistance clearly hold in December, which makes it even more meaningful now.

If MNTS does make a run toward $20, I’ll be paying very close attention to volume. Volume will tell the real story. A push into that level on declining or average volume would suggest sellers are still in control. On the other hand, if price approaches $20 with expanding volume, that would increase the odds of a breakout. For now, MNTS remains strong, but the next test will be whether it can absorb supply at that key level.

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Watching TLRY Into Earnings: Key Levels to Watch

 

Well, tomorrow (Thursday) after the close is a big day for TLRY as the company reports earnings. I’ve been watching this stock closely because it’s already in my portfolio, and while this is a long-term trade for me, earnings can create opportunities to add or adjust positions. Analysts are expecting EPS to be slightly negative or near breakeven, somewhere between –$0.03 and –$0.20 per share for the quarter, based on current forecasts. Revenue is expected to be modest and relatively flat year-over-year, roughly in the $210 million to $215 million range. These numbers aren’t surprising to me; they reflect the trend we’ve seen with Tilray over time. The company has often posted losses, but there’s been a clear focus on working toward profitability through cost discipline and segment optimization, which is encouraging from a long-term perspective.

After the earnings report, I’ll be watching two key levels closely. On the downside, I want to see if TLRY can close the gap at $8.43 and then watch to see if the stock can bounce off that area. That level could act as support and provide a low-risk opportunity to add to my position if the bounce is convincing. On the upside, if TLRY reacts positively to earnings, the $10 level will be critical. Clearing that level would be a strong bullish signal, and I would consider trading in that direction, potentially adding exposure or entering shorter-term trades that align with the momentum.

I’m already long TLRY, so this is fundamentally a long-term play for me, but these technical levels give me defined areas to potentially increase my position if the stock reacts in a bullish way. I’m not trying to predict exactly which way the market will move after earnings, but I want to be prepared to act when price confirms a move. Earnings can often create volatility, and having a plan for how to respond to key levels helps me stay disciplined. Tomorrow is going to be interesting, and I’ll be watching closely to see how the stock reacts and whether one of these setups presents itself.

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The Pullback I’m Waiting for in RDW

 Above is a 60-minute chart of RDW, and as you can clearly see, this stock remains in a strong uptrend. The higher highs and higher lows are well defined, and there’s no question that buyers are in control of the bigger picture. Even so, I have no interest in chasing strength. Chasing extended moves tends to increase risk and often leads to poor entries. Instead, I prefer to wait patiently for a pullback that offers a more favorable risk-reward setup.

Pullbacks within strong trends are where I like to focus my attention. They allow price to reset, shake out weak hands, and create opportunities to enter closer to support. In RDW’s case, the area I am watching closely is the 8.70 to 9.00 zone. This level previously acted as resistance, and in trending markets, former resistance often turns into support. That alone makes it an area worth paying attention to.

What strengthens this level even more is the rising channel I’ve drawn on the chart. The lower boundary of that channel lines up almost perfectly with the 8.70 to 9.00 area, creating a clear confluence zone. When multiple forms of support overlap, I tend to take those levels more seriously.

There’s also a measured aspect to this setup that I find compelling. The previous two pullbacks in this uptrend declined approximately $1.88 and $2.09. If the current pullback retraces about $2, it would bring price right into the zone I’m watching. That symmetry gives me a realistic expectation for how deep a normal pullback might be without damaging the overall trend.

Whether RDW pulls back into that area remains to be seen. But if it does, I’ll be ready.

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