A Textbook Example of Relative Strength in MRNA

 

Today was a great example of relative strength in action, and I want to walk through exactly what I was seeing in real time. Above is a 3-minute chart of MRNA, and in the lower pane I have the SPY plotted for comparison. This side by side view makes it very easy to spot when a stock is behaving differently from the broader market, and today MRNA stood out immediately.

From point A to point B on the SPY, the market was declining rapidly. Selling pressure was clearly in control, and by the time SPY reached point B it was meaningfully lower than it was at point A. This is the type of environment where most stocks struggle to hold their ground, let alone move higher. However, when you shift your focus back to MRNA, you see a completely different story unfolding.

Instead of breaking down with the market, MRNA actually rallied from point A. By the time it reached point B, price was well above where it started, which is a textbook example of significant relative strength. Buyers were clearly in control, absorbing any selling pressure and continuing to push price higher despite the weakness in the broader market. This type of behavior always gets my attention because it tells me institutions are likely accumulating shares.

Once minor intraday resistance was taken out, MRNA did exactly what strong stocks tend to do. It expanded higher and trended all the way into the close, finishing the day at its highs. When a stock can close at or near the high of the day while the market has been under pressure, that’s a powerful statement of strength.

Zooming out to the weekly chart on the right adds even more context. MRNA has put in a clear triple bottom and is now breaking out of a roughly 10-month trading range. When strong intraday relative strength aligns with a bullish higher-timeframe setup, it often leads to sustained follow through. Based on this structure, I expect higher prices for MRNA in the weeks ahead.

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A Pause After the $5 Break: Inside Days Set the Stage for a Bigger Move

 

It was a quiet day today, and I’ll admit I’m a little disappointed that after breaking the $5 level yesterday, we didn’t see any real follow through. When a stock finally clears a level that’s been acting as resistance, I like to see momentum step in right away. Instead, today gave us an inside day, which tells me the market is pausing rather than pushing. While that can feel frustrating in the moment, it’s not necessarily a bad thing from a technical perspective.

I added some more shares over $5 yesterday, anticipating that breakout momentum might carry higher, and for now I’m comfortable with that decision. My plan is to hold this position for a longer-term move higher over the coming months, not just a one or two day trade. Sometimes these bigger moves need time to build, and consolidation after a breakout attempt can be part of that process.

Volume today was lighter than yesterday, which is exactly what you would expect on an inside day. The lack of volume confirms that neither buyers nor sellers were in full control, and that usually sets the stage for a larger move once direction is resolved. From a technical standpoint, another long entry would come on a break over the high of the mother candle, which sits at 5.15. That level is now clearly defined and worth watching closely.

What’s also interesting is that this wasn’t isolated to just one name. Many other cannabis stocks printed inside days as well, including TLRY, CGC, CRON, ACB, SNDL, VRNO, TCNNF, and CURLF. When an entire group starts to coil up like this, it often means volatility is coming. As a result, the daily charts across the sector look like they could be in breakout mode tomorrow, so now it’s just a matter of seeing which way the market decides to resolve this consolidation.

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TLRY Teases $10 but Flashes Relative Weakness

 What is going on with TLRY? That was the question running through my head for most of the session today. We started the day with a strong rally, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. From the open, momentum looked impressive, and at least to me it felt like buyers were in control. Price pushed higher steadily, and TLRY eventually reached an intraday high of 9.95. As you know, the $10 level is the area I’ve been focused on, so seeing the stock get that close made it feel like a breakout attempt was genuinely on the table.

For a while, the action was behaving exactly the way I wanted to see. Momentum was building, and the tape suggested follow through could be coming. However, that optimism didn’t last. Relative weakness started flashing warning signs, and once I saw it, I couldn’t unsee it. The divergence between TLRY and MSOS was especially telling.

At point A on the chart, both TLRY and MSOS made higher highs on the day. That’s normal and healthy market behavior, particularly when the group is acting well. But then point B told a very different story. When MSOS went on to make a new high, TLRY failed to confirm it and instead put in a lower high. That kind of action is a classic signal that sellers are stepping in and gaining control, and it’s not something I want to see when I’m anticipating a breakout.

Not long after that divergence appeared, TLRY broke minor support and began to roll over. The selling pressure picked up, and the stock faded into the close, effectively shutting the door on any near-term breakout attempt. It was a disappointing finish given how strong the day started.

That said, the bigger picture still matters. On the daily chart, TLRY is holding gap support, which keeps the overall setup intact for now. As long as that support holds, I’m still watching closely for another push toward, and potentially through, the $10 level. For now, it’s a waiting game. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

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EVTV Explodes on Record Volume: Watching for a Pullback

 

Today was a big day for EVTV, with the stock closing up more than $2 from Friday’s close. Moves like that always demand attention, and the volume confirmed it was no ordinary session. We saw record trading activity with over 680 million shares exchanged, which tells me there was a massive surge in interest and participation. When price and volume expand together like that, it usually signals that something has changed, at least in the short term.

That said, this is not the type of move I like to chase. After such a sharp advance in a single session, the risk-reward often becomes skewed, and emotions tend to run hot. Instead, EVTV is a name I plan on watching closely over the next few days while I wait to see how the stock digests this move. Strong stocks often need time to consolidate or pull back before offering cleaner entries.

Looking at the 15-minute chart, there is a clear level of interest around 1.75. This area previously acted as resistance and was decisively taken out during today’s surge. In many cases, former resistance can turn into support on a pullback, making it a logical spot to monitor for buyers to step back in. What makes this level even more compelling is how well it aligns with the higher time frame.

On the daily chart, there is a significant level around the 1.65 area. This zone was tested multiple times in the past, acting as a ceiling before today’s breakout. Now that price is above it, that same area could serve as an important support zone. When short-term and daily levels overlap, I tend to pay closer attention.

If EVTV does pull back, the 1.60 to 1.75 range stands out as a potential support area. That’s the zone where I would be very interested in doing some buying, assuming the price action cooperates.

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MSOS Breaks the Line in the Sand: Is the Cannabis Trade Finally Waking Up?

Well, MSOS finally broke above $5, and that level was a big deal for me. As you know, $5 was my line in the sand when it came to adding to my long position, so seeing price push through it is meaningful. I’ve been waiting patiently for confirmation, and this move checks an important box from both a technical and psychological standpoint. 

If you read my last post, I highlighted the back to back weekly inside weeks. In my experience, that type of price compression often acts like a coiled spring. When volatility tightens up that much, it usually resolves with a trending move, not just a quick pop and fade. From what it appears, that move higher may have just begun today. It’s still early, but the structure is encouraging, especially after such a prolonged period of consolidation and frustration over the past 3 weeks.

Another factor worth keeping front and center is seasonality. Cannabis stocks tend to benefit from a strong seasonal tailwind that kicks in around January and often runs into February. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does tilt the odds slightly in favor of the bulls, and I always want to be aware of when technicals and seasonals are aligned. Right now, that alignment is hard to ignore.

Volume today picked up modestly, which is a step in the right direction, although I would have liked to see heavier participation to really confirm an igniting move. Still, improving volume alongside a key breakout is better than the alternative. It suggests interest is returning, even if enthusiasm hasn’t fully caught fire yet. Keep in mind institutional ownership has been on the rise.

It also wasn’t just MSOS showing strength. Several other cannabis names broke out of their consolidations, including VRNO, CRLBF, TSNDF, and GTBIF. Seeing multiple names participate adds weight to the move and hints that this could be more than just a one stock story.

From here, I’m content to take it one day at a time. If these bullish influences continue to build and we finally get the catalyst we’ve all been waiting for, this market could have plenty of room to run.

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