How Relative Strength in RCAT Signaled Today’s Move Higher

 

RCAT showed notable strength today, and I want to walk through some of the key indications that told me this stock was setting up for a higher move. Above is a 5-minute chart of RCAT, with the SPY shown in the lower pane for comparison. Right from the start, the relative strength stood out.

From points A to B on the chart, the SPY continued to push to new lows, clearly signaling weakness in the broader market. RCAT, however, refused to follow the market lower and instead put in a higher low. This is a textbook example of relative strength. The pattern is always the same, when a stock won’t go down while the overall market is under pressure it’s a strong indication that buyers are stepping in and taking control. That divergence immediately put RCAT on my radar.

As the session progressed, RCAT began to tighten up and eventually pushed through resistance. Once that resistance level was broken, the stock continued to move higher and finished the day closing at its high. That type of close is meaningful because it shows there was no late day profit taking. Buyers stayed in control right into the close, reinforcing the strength we saw earlier in the day.

Shifting to the chart on the right, which is a 60-minute chart of RCAT, there’s another important technical detail worth noting. I’m using a simple moving average that has done a good job supporting many of the recent lows over the past couple of weeks. Specifically, this is a 20-bar moving average of the low. Today, RCAT pulled back and tested this average, and once again it acted as support.

In my opinion, as long as RCAT continues to hold above this moving average, the trend remains intact. When you combine that trend support with the relative strength we saw versus the SPY, it paints a constructive picture. Now the focus shifts to seeing whether this strength can carry over into tomorrow’s session.

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TLRY Prints Its Highest Close in 12 Days — A Subtle Shift in Momentum

 It was another quiet day for cannabis stocks overall, but I wanted to provide a quick update on TLRY because there were a few subtle but important developments worth noting. Above is a 10-minute chart of TLRY, with the SPY shown in the lower pane for comparison. Even on a relatively dull day for the group, TLRY managed to flash some early signs of relative strength.

If you look closely, you’ll notice that the SPY went on to make a lower low during the session, which is a clear indication of broader market weakness. TLRY, however, did not follow the market down. Instead, it managed to hold up and put in a higher low. When a stock diverges from the market like this, especially on a quiet day, it often suggests that buyers are starting to step in beneath the surface. My interpretation is that some accumulation took place today, even if it wasn’t immediately obvious from the volume.

Based on that relative strength, I added to my long position above the $10 level late in the session expecting some follow through to the upside. While that follow through didn’t materialize by the close, TLRY finishing the day at 9.90 doesn’t concern me. Pullbacks and pauses are normal, especially when a stock is in the early stages of trying to turn higher.

Shifting to the daily chart on the right, there’s another small but encouraging detail. Today’s close was the highest close TLRY has posted over the past 12 trading days. That may not sound dramatic, but it’s a positive sign that momentum is slowly starting to turn back up after a period of consolidation. These subtle changes are often the first clues before a more meaningful move develops.

Looking ahead, the next key level I’m watching is 10.10, which marks the high from last week’s earnings day announcement. If TLRY can push through that level, I think there’s a good chance we begin to see this stock work its way higher in the sessions ahead.

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How Relative Strength in CRML Foreshadowed a Powerful Intraday Breakout

 Today we saw some impressive strength in the rare earth stocks led by CRML, which gave us very early indications that this name was setting up for a higher move. Above on the left is a 5-minute chart of CRML with volume, and below that is the SPY for comparison. Right away, the relative strength stood out.

From points A to B on the chart, the SPY continued to make new lows, which is a clear sign of market weakness. However, CRML told a very different story. Instead of following the market lower, CRML put in a much higher low at point B. That divergence immediately caught my attention because it signals that buyers are stepping in despite broader market pressure. When a stock refuses to go down while the market is making new lows, it’s often a sign that institutions are quietly accumulating shares.

Another important clue was volume. If you compare today’s volume around 10:30 ET to yesterday’s volume, the difference is obvious. Volume was notably heavier today, which helped confirm the relative strength we were seeing on the price chart. Elevated volume during a higher low adds conviction and increases the odds that a meaningful move is developing rather than just a short lived bounce.

Once CRML broke above resistance at 15.20, which was the high of day at the time, the move really accelerated. The stock continued to climb steadily and eventually reached a high of 19.05 several hours later. This kind of follow through after a resistance break is exactly what you want to see when relative strength is present.

Looking at the daily chart on the right, CRML is now approaching a small gap from October 20th that comes in around 19.58. Daily volume today was heavy as well, further reinforcing the strength of this move. This is just another great example of viewing the market through the lens of relative strength. CRML is definitely a stock worth keeping on your radar in the days and weeks ahead.

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A Textbook Example of Relative Strength in MRNA

 

Today was a great example of relative strength in action, and I want to walk through exactly what I was seeing in real time. Above is a 3-minute chart of MRNA, and in the lower pane I have the SPY plotted for comparison. This side by side view makes it very easy to spot when a stock is behaving differently from the broader market, and today MRNA stood out immediately.

From point A to point B on the SPY, the market was declining rapidly. Selling pressure was clearly in control, and by the time SPY reached point B it was meaningfully lower than it was at point A. This is the type of environment where most stocks struggle to hold their ground, let alone move higher. However, when you shift your focus back to MRNA, you see a completely different story unfolding.

Instead of breaking down with the market, MRNA actually rallied from point A. By the time it reached point B, price was well above where it started, which is a textbook example of significant relative strength. Buyers were clearly in control, absorbing any selling pressure and continuing to push price higher despite the weakness in the broader market. This type of behavior always gets my attention because it tells me institutions are likely accumulating shares.

Once minor intraday resistance was taken out, MRNA did exactly what strong stocks tend to do. It expanded higher and trended all the way into the close, finishing the day at its highs. When a stock can close at or near the high of the day while the market has been under pressure, that’s a powerful statement of strength.

Zooming out to the weekly chart on the right adds even more context. MRNA has put in a clear triple bottom and is now breaking out of a roughly 10-month trading range. When strong intraday relative strength aligns with a bullish higher-timeframe setup, it often leads to sustained follow through. Based on this structure, I expect higher prices for MRNA in the weeks ahead.

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A Pause After the $5 Break: Inside Days Set the Stage for a Bigger Move

 

It was a quiet day today, and I’ll admit I’m a little disappointed that after breaking the $5 level yesterday, we didn’t see any real follow through. When a stock finally clears a level that’s been acting as resistance, I like to see momentum step in right away. Instead, today gave us an inside day, which tells me the market is pausing rather than pushing. While that can feel frustrating in the moment, it’s not necessarily a bad thing from a technical perspective.

I added some more shares over $5 yesterday, anticipating that breakout momentum might carry higher, and for now I’m comfortable with that decision. My plan is to hold this position for a longer-term move higher over the coming months, not just a one or two day trade. Sometimes these bigger moves need time to build, and consolidation after a breakout attempt can be part of that process.

Volume today was lighter than yesterday, which is exactly what you would expect on an inside day. The lack of volume confirms that neither buyers nor sellers were in full control, and that usually sets the stage for a larger move once direction is resolved. From a technical standpoint, another long entry would come on a break over the high of the mother candle, which sits at 5.15. That level is now clearly defined and worth watching closely.

What’s also interesting is that this wasn’t isolated to just one name. Many other cannabis stocks printed inside days as well, including TLRY, CGC, CRON, ACB, SNDL, VRNO, TCNNF, and CURLF. When an entire group starts to coil up like this, it often means volatility is coming. As a result, the daily charts across the sector look like they could be in breakout mode tomorrow, so now it’s just a matter of seeing which way the market decides to resolve this consolidation.

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