CURLF: When Price and Time Start to Line Up

 

The other day I mentioned that CURLF was starting to look like it might be ready to turn back up, so I figured I’d follow that up by posting a chart and walking through exactly what I’m seeing. Sometimes it’s easier to explain this stuff visually, and CURLF is a good example of how price and time can line up in a meaningful way.

Above is a daily chart of CURLF. The first thing that jumped out at me is how the stock has been behaving around the 200 day moving average. This level has acted as support in the past, and once again price has pulled back right into that zone and is holding. I don’t look at moving averages as magic lines, but when you see repeated reactions at the same level, you have to respect it. The market clearly knows where the 200 day is, and CURLF is no exception.

What makes this more interesting is the timing. We are now in the window for the 50 day cycle, which is due pretty much right here. I’ve talked about these cycles many times before, especially when it comes to cannabis stocks, and CURLF tends to respect them fairly well. When a cycle is due, I’m looking for signs of stabilization, loss of downside momentum, and ideally some form of higher low or tight price action. That’s exactly what we’re starting to see.

This is where price and time come together. On the price side, we have support at the 200 day moving average. On the time side, we have a 50 day cycle that is due now. When those two things align, it puts the stock on my radar. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does improve the odds that a low could be forming rather than a breakdown accelerating.

From here, it’s a matter of letting the market prove it. I want to see CURLF hold above the 200 day and start to push higher, ideally showing some relative strength versus the broader market. If that happens, this could turn into a solid swing setup. If not, then we move on. As always, we’ll see what happens in the days to come.

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Gold Shows Relative Strength as Platinum and Silver Break Down

 

Above is a 4-hour chart of platinum futures, and in the lower panes I’ve added gold and silver for comparison. The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the divergence between the three metals. Both silver and platinum have broken down to new lows, but gold did not. That’s a big deal. Instead of confirming the weakness, gold is actually holding up and making a higher low, which is a classic sign of relative strength.

I’m always looking for these types of intermarket tells because they often give you a clue about what might lead on the next move. When most of the group is breaking down but one member refuses to go with them, that’s information. In this case, gold is acting like the strongest horse in the race, and that’s something I want to pay attention to.

Silver has been underperforming for a while, and platinum breaking down as well just reinforces that the industrial and more cyclical metals are still under pressure. Gold, on the other hand, is behaving differently. The higher low suggests that buyers are stepping in earlier, and that demand is stronger relative to the other metals. This doesn’t guarantee that gold will rally, but it does suggest that if the metals complex turns higher, gold is likely to lead.

What I’ll be watching closely next week is how gold behaves if we get a turn up in the sector. If platinum and silver stabilize and start to bounce, I want to see whether gold can push through Wednesday’s high. A move above that level would be a short-term trigger that buyers are taking control, and it could set up a tradable move higher.

This is where relative strength becomes actionable. I’m not just looking at gold in isolation, I’m comparing it to its peers. If the group turns up and gold is already showing strength, that’s the one I want to be focused on for potential long setups. Conversely, if the group continues lower, gold’s relative strength may simply mean it falls less, not that it rallies.

For now, gold is on my watchlist. The higher low stands out, and if we get confirmation with a break above Wednesday’s high, I’ll be paying very close attention for a potential buy setup.

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MSOS Near a Decision Point as Cycles, Support, and Catalysts Align

 

Another week has come to an end, so I want to take a step back and update everything from a technical perspective and talk about what I’m watching as we head into next week. There are moments in the market where multiple factors start lining up at the same time, and MSOS is beginning to feel like one of those moments.

Above is the daily chart of MSOS with the 50-day cycle overlaid. As you can see, we are right in the heart of the time window where I would expect a cycle low to form and a rally to begin. Cycles don’t give you an exact day or price, but they do narrow the window dramatically, and that’s exactly where we are now. This is the same framework I’ve used many times before, and when it lines up with price, it gets my attention.

From a price standpoint, MSOS is sitting at a very interesting level. We are down at the bottom of a clearly defined channel, which by itself is notable. But it doesn’t stop there. That area also coincides with the open gap around 3.76 as well as the 200-day moving average. When you have a channel low, a gap, and the 200-day all clustering together, that’s what I consider a real confluence of support. These are the areas where markets often make decisions, and right now the odds favor stabilization and a turn higher rather than a clean breakdown.

Adding to the technical setup is a potential fundamental catalyst next week. Pam Bondi is scheduled to appear before a key House committee, and advocates are hopeful that lawmakers will press her for an update on the Justice Department’s progress in carrying out President Trump’s executive order to finalize the federal marijuana rescheduling process. Whether this turns into anything concrete remains to be seen, but markets often move on expectations and headlines. This could very well be the spark that ignites the next rally, especially with the technicals already coiled up the way they are.

Looking beyond MSOS, there are several individual names worth mentioning. TLRY has turned back up and is showing signs that support is holding. I trimmed some shares on Thursday, but I’m still holding roughly 65% of my original position. If I see some follow through on Monday, I’m very open to adding those shares back. The structure looks constructive, and I want to stay flexible.

CURLF, CRLBF, GTBIF, CRON, and TCNNF are all holding their 200-day moving averages, which is encouraging. In particular, I really like what CURLF is doing. The stock is tightly consolidating right on its 200-day, and that kind of tight action after a decline often precedes a meaningful move. The reward to risk ratio is favorable here so I added a little more CURLF today, the risk is well-defined and the setup makes sense within the broader group.

Overall, I’m heading into next week with cautious optimism. The cycles are lining up, support is clearly defined, and we may have a catalyst on deck. Now it’s about letting the market confirm. Everyone have a great weekend and thanks for taking the time to stop by, its appreciated.

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The Ratio Line Gave the Clue Before the Dow Broke Out

 

Using a Ratio Line to Read the Market

Today was a great example of how a simple ratio line can give you a real edge when the market is setting up for a big move. The Dow Jones Industrials went on to make new all-time highs, but the clues were there well before price actually broke out. Above is a 30-minute chart of DIA, and in the lower pane I have a ratio line of DIA versus SPY. This is one of my favorite ways to gauge relative strength in real time, especially during choppy or unclear market conditions.

Point A: Early Hints of Bullishness

At point A, DIA made a new low. On the surface, that looks bearish and is exactly the kind of price action that shakes people out or keeps them on the sidelines. But when I shifted my focus to the ratio line, something important stood out. While price made a lower low, the ratio line did not. It stopped making new lows and began to stabilize.

This is a classic bullish divergence. It was the first hint that DIA was starting to outperform SPY, even as price still looked weak. That said, this alone wasn’t enough for me to take a trade. Divergences can last longer than you expect, and I don’t like jumping in just because I see the first sign of potential strength. At this stage, it simply put DIA on my radar and told me to stay alert.

Points B and C: Strength Beneath the Surface

Things really started to get interesting at points B and C. During this entire period, DIA was going sideways. If you were only watching price, it looked like nothing was happening. No momentum, no breakout, just chop. This is where a lot of traders lose interest or start forcing trades in the wrong direction.

But the ratio line was telling a completely different story. Instead of going sideways, it was in a strong, steady uptrend. That meant DIA was consistently outperforming SPY during this consolidation. Even though price wasn’t moving higher yet, relative strength was building underneath the surface.

This is the kind of action I love to see. When price pauses but the ratio line keeps trending higher, it often means the market is coiling up for a move. Institutions don’t always chase breakouts; they often accumulate during quiet, sideways periods. The ratio line helps expose that accumulation.

The Breakout and Entry Opportunity

Once resistance was finally taken out, the picture became much clearer. Price confirmed what the ratio line had been signaling for a while. That breakout was your opportunity to enter the market with confidence, aligned with both price and relative strength.

Instead of chasing the move after it was obvious, the ratio line allowed you to anticipate it. That’s the real value here. You’re not predicting; you’re simply recognizing strength early and waiting for price to confirm.

Gaining an Edge with the Ratio Line

This was just a great example of how using a ratio line can help you gain an edge. It adds context to price action and helps separate meaningful consolidations from random chop. Today’s rally in the Dow didn’t come out of nowhere, the clues were there if you knew where to look.

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RDW Triggers at a Key Cycle Low

 

Above is a daily chart of RDW with its 52-day cycle plotted, a cycle I talked about just a few days ago. Coming into today, RDW was in the time window where I expected a cyclical low to form. That alone doesn’t mean you blindly buy, but it does mean I’m paying very close attention to price behavior. Today, I finally got what I was looking for, a trigger.

When I’m trading cycles, timing is only half the equation. The other half is confirmation from price. A cycle can say “a low should be forming,” but price still has to agree. In RDW’s case, price stepped up right where it needed to. If this cycle plays out the way it has in the past, the expectation is that RDW should begin trending higher over the coming days and weeks. I’m not calling a straight line move, but I am looking for higher highs and higher lows as the cycle turns up.

Risk management is always front and center for me, and this trade is no different. My protective stop would be placed a few ticks below yesterday’s low. That level makes sense structurally and keeps the risk clearly defined. If I’m wrong, I want to know quickly and get out with minimal damage. One of the biggest advantages of trading cyclical lows is that you can often define risk very tightly while still having meaningful upside if the trade works.

In the next chart, I zoomed in on the daily timeframe to better highlight the area where price held. What stands out immediately is the confluence of support. RDW held a significant support zone that includes the .618 Fibonacci retracement as well as prior highs from earlier in the move. Former resistance turning into support is something I always pay attention to, and when that lines up with a key Fibonacci level, it adds weight to the level.

This is where things start to get interesting. When you combine clear price support with an expected time window for a cyclical low, you get what I consider a high-probability setup. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, nothing ever is but it does mean the odds are stacked in my favor. These are the types of trades I want to take again and again over time.

For now, the work is done. I’ve identified the cycle, waited for price confirmation, defined my risk, and taken the trigger. The next step is patience. Now we let the market do what it’s going to do. Let’s see what next week brings.

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