MSOS Finally Speaks: A Gap Fill, Relative Strength, and a Potential Turning Point

 

Finally, something to talk about in MSOS. After what has felt like a relentless and grueling two months, I’ll admit it was refreshing to see a session that actually mattered. Since MSOS topped out on December 18th, the tape has been unforgiving. Week after week, I watched each support level get taken out one by one. No drama, no snapback rallies just steady pressure and a market that refused to reward early optimism. Those are the kinds of stretches that test patience and discipline, especially when you’re trying to stay objective instead of emotional.

As the weeks dragged on, there was really only one level left that mattered to me, the open gap from December 11th. That gap wasn’t just a random reference point on the chart. It was the last meaningful support from the prior advance, and in my mind it represented the final line between a normal correction and something more damaging. 

Today, it finally happened. MSOS traded down and filled that December 11th gap, and more importantly, buyers showed up in a big way. That alone got my attention, but what really stood out was the character of the move as the day developed. The real tip-off came right after lunch. The S&P pushed to a fresh low on the day, but MSOS refused to confirm it. That relative strength divergence is the kind of subtle tell that doesn’t always show up in a headline, but it matters. It’s often the market’s way of whispering before it starts talking out loud.

Once resistance was taken out (specifically the high of day) the tone changed. MSOS exploded into the close, hitting a high at 4.28.That kind of late-day acceleration isn’t random. It suggests urgency, short covering, and fresh buyers stepping in with conviction rather than hope.

On the daily chart, the structure is even more interesting. We just printed a multi-day bullish engulfing pattern, and the context is what makes it significant. This pattern formed immediately after filling that key gap, not in the middle of nowhere. When you see an engulfing pattern appear at a well-defined support level, it carries far more weight. Add in today’s clear range expansion, and you have the ingredients for a potential trend shift rather than just a one-day bounce.

I’m not declaring victory or calling for a straight line move higher. This market has been too unforgiving for that kind of certainty. But cycles and seasonals still remain bullish, and now price is finally starting to align with that backdrop. After weeks of damage, seeing strength appear exactly where it should is encouraging.

For now, I’m focused on follow-through. If today’s range expansion is real, the next few sessions should confirm it. Let’s see how things unfold.

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MSOS: Basing at Support as We Wait for the Next Catalyst

 

Another week has come to a close, and honestly, there’s nothing especially exciting to report. That in itself probably explains the mood around here. Above is the daily chart of MSOS, and as you can clearly see, we’ve been moving sideways for the past two weeks. No real expansion in range, no decisive breakout, just a slow grind back and forth within a tightening range. It’s not dramatic, but it is information.

The 50-day cycle still suggests that higher prices should begin to emerge in the weeks ahead. That timing window hasn’t changed. If anything, the longer we base here near support, the more meaningful the eventual move could be. The bottom of the channel continues to hold as support, and the gap at 3.76 remains intact. Until that level is decisively broken, the technical structure is still constructive. Price is sitting right where it needs to hold.

It was admittedly a little disappointing that Pam Bondi wasn’t asked about cannabis during her recent appearance. Given how sensitive this space is to any hint of regulatory progress, that omission likely contributed to the lackluster trading we’ve been seeing. There was no new narrative catalyst, no headline spark, and in this sector, silence often translates into drift.

The bigger question still hangs in the air: when will cannabis rescheduling finally be finalized? At this point, trying to predict the timing feels like a fool’s game. Everyone has been wrong about it, myself included. Rather than guessing when the next update will hit the tape, I’m choosing to focus strictly on the technical signals in front of me. The chart doesn’t care about my opinions or anyone else’s timeline. It simply reflects supply and demand.

Right now, we are sitting at key support. Time cycles are pointing higher. Seasonals are also favorable. Historically, January and February have been strong months for cannabis stocks. So far, those seasonals haven’t really exerted their influence this year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Sometimes the bias kicks in late. If we’re going to see that bullish tilt, the next couple of weeks would be the window for it to show up.

I won’t sugarcoat it, this has been frustrating. I’ve had capital tied up in this space since last summer, and we’ve essentially been meandering. Not only that, but we’ve given back some substantial open profits along the way. That’s part of trading cycles, but it doesn’t make it any less irritating.

Still, when I strip away the emotion and just look at the chart, the reward-to-risk ratio at these levels is favorable. We’re sitting on defined support. If it fails, I know where I’m wrong. If it holds and the cycle turns up as expected, the upside could be meaningful.

For now, patience remains the trade. Let’s see what next week brings.

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CURLF: When Price and Time Start to Line Up

 

The other day I mentioned that CURLF was starting to look like it might be ready to turn back up, so I figured I’d follow that up by posting a chart and walking through exactly what I’m seeing. Sometimes it’s easier to explain this stuff visually, and CURLF is a good example of how price and time can line up in a meaningful way.

Above is a daily chart of CURLF. The first thing that jumped out at me is how the stock has been behaving around the 200 day moving average. This level has acted as support in the past, and once again price has pulled back right into that zone and is holding. I don’t look at moving averages as magic lines, but when you see repeated reactions at the same level, you have to respect it. The market clearly knows where the 200 day is, and CURLF is no exception.

What makes this more interesting is the timing. We are now in the window for the 50 day cycle, which is due pretty much right here. I’ve talked about these cycles many times before, especially when it comes to cannabis stocks, and CURLF tends to respect them fairly well. When a cycle is due, I’m looking for signs of stabilization, loss of downside momentum, and ideally some form of higher low or tight price action. That’s exactly what we’re starting to see.

This is where price and time come together. On the price side, we have support at the 200 day moving average. On the time side, we have a 50 day cycle that is due now. When those two things align, it puts the stock on my radar. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does improve the odds that a low could be forming rather than a breakdown accelerating.

From here, it’s a matter of letting the market prove it. I want to see CURLF hold above the 200 day and start to push higher, ideally showing some relative strength versus the broader market. If that happens, this could turn into a solid swing setup. If not, then we move on. As always, we’ll see what happens in the days to come.

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Gold Shows Relative Strength as Platinum and Silver Break Down

 

Above is a 4-hour chart of platinum futures, and in the lower panes I’ve added gold and silver for comparison. The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the divergence between the three metals. Both silver and platinum have broken down to new lows, but gold did not. That’s a big deal. Instead of confirming the weakness, gold is actually holding up and making a higher low, which is a classic sign of relative strength.

I’m always looking for these types of intermarket tells because they often give you a clue about what might lead on the next move. When most of the group is breaking down but one member refuses to go with them, that’s information. In this case, gold is acting like the strongest horse in the race, and that’s something I want to pay attention to.

Silver has been underperforming for a while, and platinum breaking down as well just reinforces that the industrial and more cyclical metals are still under pressure. Gold, on the other hand, is behaving differently. The higher low suggests that buyers are stepping in earlier, and that demand is stronger relative to the other metals. This doesn’t guarantee that gold will rally, but it does suggest that if the metals complex turns higher, gold is likely to lead.

What I’ll be watching closely next week is how gold behaves if we get a turn up in the sector. If platinum and silver stabilize and start to bounce, I want to see whether gold can push through Wednesday’s high. A move above that level would be a short-term trigger that buyers are taking control, and it could set up a tradable move higher.

This is where relative strength becomes actionable. I’m not just looking at gold in isolation, I’m comparing it to its peers. If the group turns up and gold is already showing strength, that’s the one I want to be focused on for potential long setups. Conversely, if the group continues lower, gold’s relative strength may simply mean it falls less, not that it rallies.

For now, gold is on my watchlist. The higher low stands out, and if we get confirmation with a break above Wednesday’s high, I’ll be paying very close attention for a potential buy setup.

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MSOS Near a Decision Point as Cycles, Support, and Catalysts Align

 

Another week has come to an end, so I want to take a step back and update everything from a technical perspective and talk about what I’m watching as we head into next week. There are moments in the market where multiple factors start lining up at the same time, and MSOS is beginning to feel like one of those moments.

Above is the daily chart of MSOS with the 50-day cycle overlaid. As you can see, we are right in the heart of the time window where I would expect a cycle low to form and a rally to begin. Cycles don’t give you an exact day or price, but they do narrow the window dramatically, and that’s exactly where we are now. This is the same framework I’ve used many times before, and when it lines up with price, it gets my attention.

From a price standpoint, MSOS is sitting at a very interesting level. We are down at the bottom of a clearly defined channel, which by itself is notable. But it doesn’t stop there. That area also coincides with the open gap around 3.76 as well as the 200-day moving average. When you have a channel low, a gap, and the 200-day all clustering together, that’s what I consider a real confluence of support. These are the areas where markets often make decisions, and right now the odds favor stabilization and a turn higher rather than a clean breakdown.

Adding to the technical setup is a potential fundamental catalyst next week. Pam Bondi is scheduled to appear before a key House committee, and advocates are hopeful that lawmakers will press her for an update on the Justice Department’s progress in carrying out President Trump’s executive order to finalize the federal marijuana rescheduling process. Whether this turns into anything concrete remains to be seen, but markets often move on expectations and headlines. This could very well be the spark that ignites the next rally, especially with the technicals already coiled up the way they are.

Looking beyond MSOS, there are several individual names worth mentioning. TLRY has turned back up and is showing signs that support is holding. I trimmed some shares on Thursday, but I’m still holding roughly 65% of my original position. If I see some follow through on Monday, I’m very open to adding those shares back. The structure looks constructive, and I want to stay flexible.

CURLF, CRLBF, GTBIF, CRON, and TCNNF are all holding their 200-day moving averages, which is encouraging. In particular, I really like what CURLF is doing. The stock is tightly consolidating right on its 200-day, and that kind of tight action after a decline often precedes a meaningful move. The reward to risk ratio is favorable here so I added a little more CURLF today, the risk is well-defined and the setup makes sense within the broader group.

Overall, I’m heading into next week with cautious optimism. The cycles are lining up, support is clearly defined, and we may have a catalyst on deck. Now it’s about letting the market confirm. Everyone have a great weekend and thanks for taking the time to stop by, its appreciated.

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