Cannabis Stocks and Seasonality: Why January and February Matter Most

 

With just a few trading days left in the year, I wanted to take a step back and talk about seasonality in the cannabis stocks. When I look at seasonality, I usually start with MSOS, but in this case MJ gives us a longer data set, which makes it more useful for this type of analysis. Above is a seasonal chart of MJ, and what immediately stands out to me is that we are approaching what has historically been the most bullish time of the year for cannabis stocks.

As the chart shows, January and February have consistently been the strongest months, and they tend to produce the largest gains. That doesn’t mean prices will automatically move higher just because the calendar flips, but seasonality does give us a roadmap. It helps frame what is more likely to happen based on historical tendencies rather than emotion or guesswork.

If you’ve been reading my recent posts, you already know that from a technical standpoint I believe the cannabis stocks are setting up to turn higher. We’re seeing constructive price action across many of the major names, and that technical picture lines up well with the seasonal tailwind we’re about to enter. When technicals and seasonality start pointing in the same direction, I pay attention.

What really adds to my interest right now is volume. December has seen record monthly volume in names like MSOS, MSOX, CGC, TLRY and several others across the space. Heavy volume often shows that large players are positioning ahead of a potential move, not chasing it after the fact. On top of that, there’s a possible fundamental catalyst on the horizon, with Pam Bondi reportedly under pressure from President Trump to finalize marijuana rescheduling by the end of January. Whether or not that happens exactly on schedule, the market tends to move in anticipation, not reaction.

Of course, seasonality is not a guarantee. Nobody has a crystal ball, and anything can happen in the short term. All I’m doing is weighing the probabilities and sharing how I see the pieces lining up. Right now, technicals, volume, and seasonality appear to be working together, and that’s enough for me to stay engaged and prepared. I’d love to hear what you think.

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