Above is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin futures, and in the lower pane I’ve plotted the E-mini S&P 500. The first thing that really stands out to me is how closely these two markets tend to track each other. Some people love to argue that the S&P has nothing to do with Bitcoin, that one is a risk on tech proxy and the other is some independent digital asset, but when I actually look at the charts I see a different story. The price action tells me that these markets often move in tandem, meaning they make highs and lows at roughly the same time.
For me, that correlation is important because it gives context to what Bitcoin is doing beneath the surface. When two markets with very different narratives still line up structurally, it tells me the same institutional flows may be influencing both.
Now take a look at point B on the chart. Bitcoin is making a lower high compared to point A, which is always something I pay attention to because it can signal exhaustion. But at the same time, the S&P 500 just made a slightly higher high today. That divergence really catches my eye. When a correlated market makes a new high while the other fails to confirm it, it often has bearish implications for the weaker one and in this case, that’s Bitcoin.
Going into next week, I’ll be watching Bitcoin closely for breaks of support. If those levels start giving way, I’ll be looking for short entries based on this divergence setup.
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