I’m seeing a lot of chatter on social media lately about Bitcoin being “cheap” and a must buy right here, but based on what I’m seeing, I have to disagree. When I step back and look at Bitcoin through the lens of relative strength, the evidence suggests money is leaving the space, not flowing into it.
Above is a 60-minute chart of GBTC, and in the lower pane I’m using the SPY as a benchmark. This comparison is important because relative strength isn’t about whether something is going up or down in isolation, it’s about how it’s behaving compared to where money could be going instead. What stands out to me is that while the SPY has pushed to a new swing high, GBTC has failed to do the same. Instead, it’s carving out a clear series of lower highs.
That’s a major red flag. If Bitcoin were under accumulation, especially during a strong stock market environment, you wouldn’t expect to see persistent lower highs. Strong assets tend to confirm strength elsewhere, not diverge from it. When equities are attracting capital and Bitcoin can’t keep pace, it tells me liquidity is favoring stocks over crypto, at least for now.
This is why I’m always focused on liquidity flows. Markets move based on where capital is rotating, and right now, I don’t see convincing evidence that money is rotating into Bitcoin. Belief and narratives don’t move markets. capital does.
From a tactical standpoint, the level I’m watching is 67.50 on GBTC, which represents minor support. If that level is taken out, it would get my attention and increase the odds of further downside. Until then, I’m staying on the sidelines. The warning signs are there, and patience is a position.
For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage
No comments:
Post a Comment