I’ve been bearish on Bitcoin for the past several months, and I think the evidence continues to support that stance. When I look at this market through the lens of relative strength, it’s clear to me that money has been steadily leaving Bitcoin rather than flowing into it. That kind of behavior usually isn’t a recipe for sustained upside. On top of that, my longer-term cycle work still points to lower prices ahead, potentially stretching into the late summer months. From a bigger picture perspective, I remain firmly in the bearish camp.
That said, markets don’t move in straight lines, and the short-term picture is a bit more nuanced. Over the past 15 months, Bitcoin has been respecting a very consistent 2½-month cycle. This cycle has done a remarkably good job of identifying time windows when short-term lows are likely to form. If you look at the daily chart above, you can see how often this rhythm has shown up and how useful it’s been in highlighting potential turning points.
Based on that cycle, another short-term low looks like it could be due sometime this coming week. Now, even though that suggests a bounce may be approaching, it doesn’t change my overall bias. I’m not interested in trying to pick a bottom here. Instead, I’d much rather let Bitcoin bounce and then look for that rally to create another, potentially lower-risk shorting opportunity.
For me, the key question is whether this 2½-month cycle continues to dominate the short-term swings in this market. If it does, we should get a decent tradable bounce soon. Either way, I’ll be watching closely to see how things unfold and whether this familiar rhythm once again shows its hand.
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