January Promised Everything… and Delivered Nothing

 

It’s the end of the week and the final trading day of the month, and on both the weekly and monthly timeframes we closed with red candles. That alone tells you a lot about the tone in the cannabis space right now. Above on the left is a weekly chart of MSOS, and you can clearly see that we’ve broken down from a five-week consolidation. That range had been tightening up nicely, but instead of resolving higher, sellers stepped in and pushed price lower. That’s never what you want to see coming off consolidation, especially when expectations were elevated heading into the month.

On the right is the monthly chart of MSOS, and here we’ve put in an inside month. What’s interesting is that many of the individual cannabis stocks are showing the same pattern. Inside months tell me the market is coiling and waiting, but the problem is that this particular inside month closed down. That suggests hesitation and frustration rather than constructive accumulation.

At this point it’s obvious the market is waiting for the next real catalyst. When updates don’t come specifically from Pam Bondi, impatient traders start selling. President Trump had made it clear he wanted rescheduling finalized by the end of January, and as we can all see, that deadline has come and gone. The longer the silence, the more confidence erodes in the short term.

Some people are pointing to broader geopolitical issues, like what’s going on with Venezuela and Minneapolis, as reasons for the delay. The hope is that February becomes the month where rescheduling finally gets pushed across the finish line. Maybe that’s the case, maybe it isn’t we’ll find out soon enough. For now, all we have is price, and price has been disappointing.

I’ll admit it, I came into January with high expectations. Seasonally, January and February tend to be strong months for the cannabis sector, and with all the buildup around policy changes, it felt like the timing finally lined up. Instead, all we could muster was an inside month with a red close. That’s a tough pill to swallow.

That said, I’m not throwing in the towel. I remain cautiously optimistic heading into February, but I’m also realistic. Until MSOS can reclaim the $5 level, a lot of what we’re seeing right now is just noise and frustration driven trading. The bigger move will come when price confirms it. Until then, patience is required. Let’s see what the new month brings.

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