What a disappointing day in TLRY today. Coming into the session, I actually felt fairly constructive after earnings yesterday. The numbers themselves looked ok to me maybe not great, but at least slightly positive and the market initially seemed to agree. After-hours we saw an explosive move higher, followed by a period of consolidation, and then a slow, steady grind higher in the pre-market that pushed the stock as high as 10.45. That type of action usually gets my attention, especially in a sector that’s been starved for real momentum.
As you know, I’ve been watching the $10 area very closely and treating it as a clear line in the sand. If TLRY could open and hold above $10, I was interested in buying if the right setup presented itself. Below $10, I had no interest in forcing anything. Levels like that matter, particularly in names that can turn on a dime.
Unfortunately, the open couldn’t have gone much worse. We opened at 10.05, pushed to a quick high of 10.10, and then within the first minute the stock was already trading below 9.80. From there it was just a steady trend lower for the next 30 minutes, with sellers clearly in control. Once that initial damage was done, TLRY spent the rest of the day moving sideways and eventually closed on its low. After the promise shown pre-market, that type of follow-through or lack thereof is incredibly frustrating.
Cannabis stocks really have a way of testing your patience. Just when it feels like there might be a spark that could ignite a meaningful move, the whole thing falls apart almost immediately.
One thing I do want to point out, though, is what’s happening around the earnings reaction. At point A on the chart is where earnings were released, and the explosive move higher from that area suggests a demand zone with unfilled orders. At point B, price came right back down into that same zone and, so far, appears to be holding. Because of that, heading into Monday, I want to see the 9.00 to 9.10 area hold as support.
Despite all of this, my broader view hasn’t changed. These stocks are volatile, headline driven, and often unforgiving in the short term, but I remain bullish on the cannabis sector over the long run. Days like today are aggravating, no doubt, but they don’t invalidate the bigger picture. For now, it’s about patience, discipline, and respecting levels even when the market does everything it can to test them.
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