TLRY… are you kidding me?

 

This felt like a straight up replay of yesterday, only worse. Above is a 5-minute chart of TLRY, with MSOS in the lower pane for comparison, and from the opening bell the tone was already familiar. At point A, TLRY opens and immediately sells off hard. No hesitation, no attempt to find its footing, just straight down, almost identical to what we saw yesterday. Right away I’m on alert, because when a stock can’t even hold the open in a supposedly bullish environment, that’s information.

Then around noon ET the headline hits. The news sends MSOS ripping higher, pushing to a new intraday high at point B. This is where I’m watching very closely. If TLRY is healthy, if it’s truly participating, this is the moment it should respond. Did it make a new high? No. Instead, it stalled and rolled over, printing a lower high. Instantly my focus shifts from optimism to defense. Relative weakness. In my head I’m hearing, “Danger Will Robinson.”

About an hour later, MSOS does it again. Another push to a fresh high, another opportunity for TLRY to confirm. And once again, TLRY fails. Another lower high. At that point there’s no ambiguity. I’ve seen this movie too many times before, and I know exactly how it ends if support gives way. When the ETF is making higher highs and the individual stock can’t keep up, sellers are in control whether I like it or not.

Here’s the part that stings. I’m long TLRY. I’ve been holding shares since last summer, and emotionally that matters more than it should. But being long doesn’t give me a free pass to ignore what’s right in front of me. So I do what I know I’m supposed to do. I place a sell stop on one-third of my position, right below support. This isn’t me flipping bearish on the whole thesis, it’s me respecting risk.

Not long after, TLRY breaks the low, triggers my sell stop, and from there both TLRY and MSOS sink into the close, finishing basically at their lows. Confirmation, unfortunately, came fast.

What frustrates me the most is that about 90% of my trading is based on pure technical signals. I live in volume. I rely heavily on relative strength, cycles, and clean support and resistance levels. Fundamentals are great to have as a backdrop, but technical analysis is what actually drives my decision making. And yet here I am, getting emotionally tangled up in the rescheduling narrative and letting that override signals that have been flashing sell for days.

The result is that I’ve given back a significant chunk of the profits I built up after buying these stocks last summer. Even though I’m still slightly positive overall, it feels like I’ve lost a ton of money. That’s the psychological trap, giving back gains hurts just as much, sometimes more, than taking an outright loss.

The chart didn’t lie. I just didn’t want to listen.

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