Above is a weekly chart of TSLA with its 20-week simple moving average plotted. This is one of the first things I look at when I’m trying to determine whether a stock is in a healthy intermediate-term trend, and TSLA has respected this level extremely well. Since last summer, this moving average has acted as reliable support on multiple occasions. In fact, it’s been tested six separate times, and each time price found support and moved higher. That kind of repeated behavior tells me this is a level institutions are clearly watching.
Right now, TSLA is once again testing that same 20-week moving average. What makes the current setup particularly interesting is that we’ve just printed an inside week. When I see an inside week form directly on a key moving average, it immediately gets my attention. Inside weeks often represent consolidation and indecision, and when they occur at an important support level, they can act as a springboard for the next directional move.
This is not a spot where I want to anticipate or guess. I want price to confirm. For me, a long entry would require a move above the high of the “mother candle,” which is 457.55. A break above that level would tell me buyers are regaining control and that the 20-week moving average has once again done its job. Until that happens, patience is required.
As I write this on Monday night, TSLA is trading lower along with the broader market, around the 431 area. That doesn’t bother me in and of itself. What matters is whether this moving average continues to hold on a closing basis and whether we start to see price curl back up. If that happens, this consolidation could resolve to the upside, just like it has several times over the past year.
I’m not married to any outcome here. If support fails, I’ll step aside. But if the 20-week moving average holds and TSLA starts pushing higher, this is a setup I’ll be watching very closely for a potential long entry.
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