Holding TLRY Despite the Warnings… Here’s What I Learned

 

As we begin a new month, I can’t help but reflect on some of the trading mistakes I made recently, specifically with TLRY. One of the main tools I use in my trading and investing is relative strength, which is why I’m a little annoyed with myself that I’m still holding most of my shares. I know better than to ignore it, yet here I am.

Above is a daily chart of TLRY, and in the lower pane, I’ve plotted a relative strength line of TLRY versus MSOS. Looking back, there are clear moments where TLRY signaled caution. At point B, TLRY made a lower high compared to point A. If you compare that to a chart of MSOS not shown here, you’d see it made a much higher high. I remember that day vividly. While my P&L for MSOS was setting new highs, my TLRY profit was far below where it had been in October, at point A. That is textbook relative weakness, yet I held on.

Then came the large bearish outside reversal day tied to the executive order signing, followed by follow-through the next day. These were clear warning signals, yet I still held. And even toward the end of January, when TLRY broke down out of its consolidation and filled the gap, I continued holding. I kept asking myself, how many more bearish signals do I need to see before I act on them?

By ignoring these relative weakness signals, I now find myself holding TLRY while its ratio line is teetering on the edge of new lows. I'm still up on the trade, but it’s rapidly becoming one of my worst-performing holdings. The lesson is painfully clear: I should have at least lightened up on my position when the early warnings appeared, with the mindset that I could always get back in if the trend reversed.

This experience is a perfect reminder of an old saying I often quote: “Trade what you see, not what you think.” TLRY embodies exactly why that rule exists. It’s easy to get attached to a position when you’re up on paper or when you believe in the long-term story, but the market doesn’t care about your thesis. It only reacts to price and relative strength.

Reflecting on this trade, I can see clearly where I went wrong, and I’m committed to letting the signals drive my decisions moving forward. TLRY may still have upside, but right now it is a stark example of what happens when you ignore what the charts are telling you. Going forward, I will act more decisively on relative weakness, even if it means taking partial losses. TLRY has taught me an invaluable lesson about patience, discipline, and respecting the market over my own bias.

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