MSOS Returns to the 50-Day Cycle Window

 

Above is a daily chart of MSOS with its 50-day cycle, a cycle I’ve been writing about consistently for many months now. This isn’t something I just noticed last week or retroactively drew on a chart to make myself look smart. Back on December 6th, I openly wrote that a cyclical low was likely in and that a rally should follow. And to be blunt, that call worked almost perfectly. I nailed the bottom, stepped in right where the risk/reward made sense, and rode the move higher as MSOS ripped off the lows. From an entry standpoint, it was one of my better trades.

Unfortunately, my exit was terrible.

That exit coincided with the day Trump signed the executive order, and I watched a large chunk of unrealized profits evaporate in real time. Anyone who has traded long enough knows that feeling in the pit of your stomach. You do the hard part right, waiting patiently, buying when fear is high, trusting your work and then you fumble the ball on the goal line. It was a painful reminder that having a great entry is only half the battle. The exit matters just as much, if not more. You don’t get paid for being right; you get paid for managing risk and locking in gains.

Fast forward to today, and here we are again approaching another potential opportunity. As you can see on the chart, the next cyclical low is due around February 5th, give or take a few days. Cycles aren’t magic, and they’re certainly not precise to the exact day, but they give you something incredibly valuable: a time window. Instead of guessing blindly, I know that we are entering a period where a bottom should be forming. That alone changes how I think, how I size trades, and how aggressive or patient I’m willing to be.

What continues to impress me is just how accurate this 50-day cycle has been over the past two and a half years. Every cyclical low marked in blue at the bottom of the chart is exactly the same distance apart, yet they line up remarkably well with actual market lows in MSOS. That’s not random. At some point, this cycle will lose its influence, everything works until it doesn’t, but until that happens I’m going to keep trading it because it has earned my respect.

I added to MSOS today and also picked up some TLRY. No, we haven’t received clear confirmation that the cyclical low is officially in yet. I may be early, and I know that. But I did notice some subtle signs of relative strength compared to the broader market’s action today, and that’s often how these turns begin. I’m not swinging for the fences here. I’m positioning myself where the odds start to shift back in my favor, armed with experience, humility from my last exit, and a clear plan for how I want to handle the next move.

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