Why I'm Watching CURLD Closely Heading Into July

 

Above is a daily chart of CURLD, and in the lower pane you'll see the MACD indicator. One of the patterns I've noticed for this stock is that when the MACD is below the zero line and then produces a bullish crossover, the stock often goes on to rally. It's certainly not a perfect signal, but it has proven to be a useful tool for identifying potential turning points after periods of weakness.

If you look at the chart, you'll see several examples of this setup. At points A, B, C, and D, the MACD crossed higher while still below the zero line. In each case, the stock responded positively. Point C spent more time moving sideways than trending higher, but the bullish crossover still marked the end of the previous decline. The other signals led to much stronger advances.

Now we're seeing a very similar setup develop once again.

The MACD remains below the zero line, but it's beginning to curl upward. If it completes a bullish crossover, I'll be paying very close attention. On its own, I believe this setup has better than a 50% chance of producing a profitable move. However, I've found that no single indicator should ever be relied upon by itself. Instead, I like to stack multiple factors in my favor before committing capital.

That's where seasonality comes into the picture.

Above is a seasonal table for CURLD, and one statistic immediately jumps off the page. Historically, July has been the stock's strongest month, producing a bullish move approximately 85% of the time. Granted, the historical data only goes back to 2018, so we're dealing with a relatively small sample size. Even with that limitation, July stands out by a wide margin as the most favorable month on the calendar for this stock.

When I combine those two factors, a potential MACD buy signal and a very strong seasonal tailwind, I believe the probability of success increases meaningfully. Neither one guarantees the stock will rally, but together they create a setup that deserves my attention.

This is exactly how I like to approach trading. Rather than relying on a single indicator or making emotional decisions, I prefer to look for situations where technical analysis, seasonality, and probability all point in the same direction. The more pieces of evidence I can gather, the more confidence I have in taking a trade.

I'm not blindly buying just because the calendar is turning to July. I still want to see confirmation from the MACD and, ideally, some improvement in price action before getting involved. If those pieces begin to fall into place over the next several trading sessions, CURLD could become one of the more interesting cannabis stocks on my watch list.

I'll be stalking this trade closely in the days ahead to see if everything comes together.

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