Relative Weakness In NVDA Could Lead To A Great Entry Opportunity

 Over the past few trading sessions I’ve been noticing some relative weakness developing in NVDA when compared to the SPY, and it’s something that immediately caught my attention as a trader. Relative strength and relative weakness are two of the biggest things I focus on intraday because they can often give clues about where institutional money is flowing. In this case, NVDA has clearly been lagging behind the broader market.

If you look at the chart above, you’ll see NVDA displayed on the top with the SPY directly below it for comparison purposes. What really stands out to me are the areas marked A, B, C, and D. At each of those points the SPY continued pushing to higher highs while NVDA was doing the exact opposite by putting in lower highs. That divergence is a textbook example of relative weakness. When a leading stock begins failing to confirm the strength of the overall market, it’s often a warning sign that momentum is slowing down.

For active day traders, this setup actually presented a solid opportunity on the short side. While the market itself continued grinding higher, NVDA struggled to keep pace and repeatedly failed at resistance levels. Those failed pushes created opportunities to scalp short-term downside moves throughout the day. In many cases, weak stocks in a strong market can offer some of the cleanest short setups because they tend to drop quickly once buying pressure dries up.

That said, I’m not bearish on NVDA longer term. In fact, when I shift over and look at the Daily chart on the right side, I actually see a very healthy pullback developing. After such a powerful run over the past couple of months, a retracement like this is completely normal and, in my opinion, even constructive. The stock now appears to be approaching a rising trend line that could act as an area of support. If buyers step in near that level, it could set up for another leg higher.

Because of that, I’m already thinking ahead to next week and planning how I want to position myself. Rather than chasing shares outright, my strategy will likely be to sell out of the-money puts around the 205 strike price. I like this approach because it allows me to collect premium while potentially entering the stock at a lower price if the options get exercised.

Even if my timing is slightly off and NVDA continues drifting lower temporarily, I honestly wouldn’t mind owning shares down near the 205 area. That would give me a solid entry on a high quality stock while also allowing me to keep the premium collected from selling the puts. For now, I’m staying patient and letting the charts guide me. It should be interesting to see how this setup unfolds next week.

MSOS Closes Strong at $4.14 as Late Day Momentum Signals Potential Breakout

 

Not a bad day at all for MSOS, and I have to admit it felt good seeing it finally close above that psychological $4 level. That’s one of those round numbers that tends to matter more than it should, but time and again the market proves that traders pay attention to it. Getting above it and more importantly holding it into the close is a small but meaningful win for the bulls.

When I look at the 5-minute chart, most of the session was honestly pretty forgettable. Price action was choppy and lacked conviction, the kind of day where it feels like neither side really has control. For the majority of the trading day, MSOS just drifted, with no real urgency from buyers to step in aggressively. If I had only checked midday, I probably would’ve written the day off as noise.

But the last hour completely changed the tone.

That’s where things got interesting. We saw a clear surge in buying, and what really caught my attention was the accompanying volume. It wasn’t just a slow grind higher, there was real participation behind the move. Volume expanding into the close is something I always watch closely because it can signal institutional involvement or at least a broader shift in sentiment. It tells me this wasn’t just retail chasing, it had some weight behind it.

Closing on the exact high of the day at 4.14 is another detail I don’t ignore. That kind of close suggests buyers were in control right into the bell, with no meaningful profit taking to push it down. It’s a subtle sign of strength, but in my experience, those closes tend to matter, especially when they line up with key levels on higher timeframes.

And that brings me to the daily chart.

Zooming out, it’s pretty clear that 4.14 isn’t just any number, it lines up perfectly with last month’s high. That makes it a level worth respecting. Markets have memory, and prior highs often act as resistance until proven otherwise. So while today’s action was encouraging, the real test comes next.

If we can clear 4.14 convincingly tomorrow, I think there’s a very good chance we see continuation to the upside. Breakouts above well defined levels like this can trigger momentum, especially if short sellers start to cover and sidelined buyers feel forced to chase.

This setup also reinforces what I wrote back on April 4th about momentum shifting in favor of the bulls. At that time, the technicals, especially the MACD turning bullish suggested that a change in character was underway. Now, we’re starting to see price action confirm that idea.

It’s still early, and one day doesn’t make a trend, but this is the kind of price behavior I want to see if MSOS is going to make a meaningful move higher.

April 4th commentary: MSOS Setting Up at Major Support as MACD Turns Bullish

INTC Breakout: A Textbook Relative Strength Winner

 Wow, what a week it’s been for the market, and especially for INTC. I’m still shaking my head a bit, not because I’m surprised, but because it’s always satisfying to see a setup play out exactly the way you anticipated. About a week ago, I wrote about how INTC was showing clear signs of strength. What really stood out to me wasn’t just the price action, it was the relative strength. The stock wasn’t just moving up; it was outperforming its peers and the broader market. That’s always one of my biggest tells that something meaningful could be unfolding.

If you look back at the chart I shared, the arrow marks the exact spot where I alerted readers right here on this site that INTC looked ready to move higher. At the time, it wasn’t about predicting the future, it was about recognizing a high probability setup. The stock had been acting well, holding key levels, and quietly building momentum while others were still chopping around and moving lower. That kind of behavior tends to precede strong moves, and that’s exactly what we got.

Since that post, INTC has absolutely exploded to the upside, hitting a high today of 63.39. Moves like that don’t happen by accident. They’re usually the result of accumulation, improving sentiment, and underlying strength that shows up in the relative performance before it becomes obvious to everyone else. That’s why I focus so heavily on relative strength, it gives me an edge in spotting leaders early.

Another important piece of the puzzle was the broader semiconductor space. I pointed out at the time that other semis were also starting to show strength, and that added even more conviction to the trade. When you see a stock leading within a strong group, it significantly increases the odds that the move has legs. It’s not just a one-off story, it’s part of a bigger trend. That kind of confirmation is something I always look for before committing capital.

To me, this trade was a textbook setup, something straight out of my playbook. It had all the elements I look for: relative strength, sector confirmation, and clean technical structure. Those are the kinds of trades I try to focus on consistently, because over time, that’s where the real edge comes from.

If you’re interested in how I use relative strength in my own trading, I go into much more detail in my book, Master The Market with Relative Strength. And if you want to revisit the original analysis from last week on INTC, feel free to go back and check out that post. It’s always valuable to study these setups in real time and see how they evolve.

CURLF Showing Relative Strength at a Key Support Level

 Above is a daily chart of CURLF, and in the lower pane I’m using a ratio line of CURLF versus MSOS to measure relative strength within the cannabis space. Right away, the first thing that stands out to me is the strong support level that CURLF has just bounced from, and I think that level is the key to the entire setup.

Back in November, CURLF found support just under the $2 area, and now we’re seeing buyers step back into the stock at that same level once again. I always pay close attention when a stock reacts positively at a prior support zone because it tells me that the market still recognizes that area as important. When a level has already proven itself in the past and then works again later, it tends to carry more weight in my analysis.

What I like here is not just the bounce itself, but the way the bounce is happening. We’re now seeing three above average sized green candles come off that support area, and that’s not something I ignore. Strong candles like that often tell me buyers are stepping in with conviction rather than just creating a weak dead cat bounce. To me, that kind of price action suggests demand is returning in a meaningful way.

The lower pane is also giving me a very important clue. As CURLF was retesting support, the ratio line versus MSOS was actually showing bullish divergence. In other words, while price was coming back down toward that support level, the stock was quietly beginning to outperform the broader cannabis ETF. That’s something I always find encouraging because it can often be an early signal that the stock is beginning to strengthen beneath the surface before the price chart fully reflects it.

What makes this even more interesting is that the ratio line now looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out of its consolidation before price does. That’s exactly the kind of pattern I like to watch for because relative strength often acts as a leading indicator. When I see the ratio line improving ahead of a clear price breakout, it tells me that buyers may already be positioning in anticipation of a larger move.

Of course, I still want to see the cannabis sector continue to improve overall. If MSOS can keep moving higher and the group starts to gain momentum, I think CURLF has a very good chance of emerging as one of the stronger names in the space. It’s already showing the kind of relative behavior I want to see in a potential leader.

For that reason, CURLF is definitely one I think is worth watching here. It’s sitting on proven support, showing strong buying pressure off the lows, and beginning to outperform its sector. In my opinion, that combination gives it the potential to become one of the leaders if the cannabis trade continues to develop.

INTC Starting to Act Like a Leader

 

Above is a daily chart of INTC, and in the lower pane I’m using SPY for comparison. One of the things I’m always looking for is relative strength, especially during periods when the broader market is under pressure, and I think INTC has been showing a very clear example of that.

If you look closely from point A to point B, the contrast between INTC and SPY really stands out. SPY went on to make a much lower low at point B, which tells you the overall market was still getting hit pretty hard. But while the market was falling apart, INTC held up much better and actually made a considerably higher low at point B. To me, that is exactly the kind of price action that deserves attention.

This is one of the classic signs of relative strength. When the market gets hammered but a stock refuses to break down with it, that usually means there is underlying demand supporting the name. In other words, buyers are stepping in sooner and with more confidence than they are in the broader market. That doesn’t always lead to an immediate breakout, but it often gives me an early clue about where money may be quietly rotating.

What I like about this setup is that the relative strength isn’t just subtle, it’s pretty obvious on the chart. INTC didn’t just survive the market weakness; it absorbed it and then began to stabilize in a constructive way. When I see that kind of action, I start thinking less about what the market is doing in the moment and more about what the stock may do once market pressure starts to ease.

Another bullish development is that INTC has now broken out above its trendline. That alone gets my attention, but what really adds conviction for me is the way it happened. The stock pushed through that area with three large consecutive green candles, which is not the kind of action I like to ignore. Strong candles in succession often signal urgency from buyers, and when they appear after a period of relative strength, I view that as an important shift in character.

I’m also encouraged by the fact that INTC is not acting strong in isolation. Several other semiconductor names have been showing relative strength as well, and that kind of group behavior matters. When I see multiple stocks in the same sector starting to outperform together, it often suggests that institutional money is moving into that space. Sector confirmation can go a long way in supporting an individual setup.

At this point, I think INTC is in a favorable position technically. It has held up better than the broader market, it has broken trendline resistance with authority, and it’s doing so alongside strength in other semiconductors. For those reasons, I expect higher prices in the weeks ahead and will be watching to see if this momentum continues to build.

NFLX Showing Relative Strength Ahead of a Potential Breakout

 

Over the past several weeks, NFLX has really caught my attention, and I think it’s setting up in a way that traders should be paying close attention to. On the daily chart above, I’m looking at a stock that has been acting far better than much of the broader market, and that kind of behavior is always worth noting. In the lower pane, I’m using a ratio line of NFLX versus SPY, and that comparison is telling an important story.

Back in late February, NFLX had a powerful gap higher, and since then it has been working through a consolidation phase. That kind of price action is often constructive because rather than immediately giving back the move, the stock has been digesting gains in an orderly fashion. To me, that suggests institutions may still be involved and that the stock is being accumulated rather than distributed. When a stock gaps up and then holds the bulk of that move, I always see that as something potentially bullish.

What stands out even more is what happened two weeks ago. NFLX pulled back and tested the beginning of that gap area, which is a spot I would expect to matter technically. Instead of falling apart, buyers stepped in and defended the level. That support tells me demand is still present, and it reinforces the idea that the gap wasn’t just a one day event. It now looks more like a meaningful reference point on the chart.

The real reason I’m interested here, though, is the relative strength. While the overall market has had its ups and downs (mostly down), NFLX has continued to show leadership. In the bottom pane, the ratio line is doing something I pay very close attention to: it has already broken out to a new swing high ahead of price itself. That’s a pattern I respect because the ratio line often acts like a leading indicator. When relative strength improves before price actually clears resistance, it can be an early clue that a breakout may be coming.

In my experience, when I see a stock outperforming quietly beneath the surface while price is still consolidating, it often means the stock is preparing for its next leg higher. That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course, but it definitely puts the name on my radar.

From here, I’ll be watching closely for a breakout over the $100.19 high. That level is the trigger that would tell me price is finally ready to confirm what the ratio line has already been hinting at. If NFLX can clear that area with conviction, I think there’s a reasonable path toward the $110 zone. As long as relative strength continues to lead, I’ll stay constructive on the setup.

MSOS Setting Up at Major Support as MACD Turns Bullish

This past week was very interesting for the cannabis stocks, and I want to point out a few things that really stood out to me on the chart. Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane is the MACD indicator. When I look at a setup like this, I’m not just looking for random movement or trying to force a bullish opinion. I want to see whether price is reacting at a meaningful level and whether momentum is beginning to confirm that reaction. Right now, I think that’s exactly what may be taking place.

The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the major support and resistance zone between $3.00 and $3.35. This is not just some arbitrary line drawn on the chart. This is an area where the market has repeatedly shown us that buyers and sellers care. If you look back, you can see that this zone has acted as both support and resistance numerous times in the past. Every time price has entered this area, the market has responded with a significant move. That is the type of level I pay very close attention to because repeated reactions at the same zone usually mean there is real supply and demand there.

When a level is tested many times and the market continues to react from it, I take notice. That tells me the level has memory. It tells me traders are seeing the same thing, and that’s important because the more eyes on a level, the more meaningful it often becomes. Right now, MSOS appears to be bouncing from that exact support zone, and that immediately puts it on my radar.

The second thing I want to point out is what is happening in the lower pane with the MACD. At point D, the MACD has just now crossed to the upside, giving what many traders would consider a bullish buy signal. On its own, that doesn’t mean much to me. I’ve said many times that I do not rely on indicators by themselves. In fact, a MACD cross in the middle of nowhere is something I usually ignore. But when momentum starts to turn at a major level of support, that gets my attention.

What makes this especially interesting is that we’ve seen this exact behavior before. Every time the MACD was below the zero line and then gave a bullish crossover to the upside, the market rallied significantly afterward. You can see this at points A, B, and C, and now once again at point D. That type of repetition is important because it shows a pattern that has been respected multiple times before.

Take a closer look at point B. The MACD gave a bullish signal while price was holding support, and what followed was a very strong move higher. Then look at point C. Once again, the MACD crossed bullishly at an established support area, and the result was another explosive move to the upside. Those are the types of setups I want to see because they combine price structure with momentum confirmation.

And that’s really the key here. MACD signals by themselves mean very little to me unless they are combined with other tools. I want to see alignment. I want support and resistance, relative strength, volume, and momentum all working together. When multiple factors start lining up at the same time, that’s when I begin to pay closer attention because those are often the setups that can lead to meaningful moves.

Now at point D, we once again have a bullish MACD crossover occurring right at this same important support zone. That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course, but it does suggest that momentum may be starting to shift in favor of the bulls. If that’s the case, then I think higher prices are likely, especially if MSOS can reclaim and close back above $4.00. That would be an important sign that buyers are regaining control and that this bounce has real follow-through behind it.

For now, I think this is a chart worth watching very closely. We have a major level, we have momentum beginning to confirm it, and we have prior examples on the chart showing how powerful these setups can become. Now we wait and see how things unfold.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

 

Cannabis Stocks Finally Show a Pulse

 

It’s been a while since I last posted about the cannabis stocks and honestly, there has not been much reason to. For most of the month, the group has done very little. Price action has been choppy, directionless, and mostly drifting sideways to lower. That kind of environment usually keeps me on the sidelines because there is no edge in forcing trades when the sector is not showing any real leadership. Today, though, the action finally caught my attention, and I wanted to share what I’m seeing.

What stood out to me was the intraday behavior in MSOS compared to the broader market. On the 5-minute chart, while the S&P 500 was pressing to new lows for the day around 12:30, MSOS was not following it lower. Instead, it was holding up extremely well and consolidating near the highs of the morning. That immediately got my attention because when a sector refuses to break down while the market is weak, I view that as a sign that something may be changing beneath the surface. To me, that kind of divergence is often an early clue that relative strength is starting to emerge.

As the day developed, that interpretation only became more convincing. MSOS continued to hold its ground, and once resistance was cleared, buyers stepped in aggressively and pushed the ETF higher for the rest of the afternoon. That type of move suggests to me that money was entering the space, not just random short covering or noise. When I see a stock or sector absorb market weakness, tighten up near the highs, and then expand upward once resistance gives way, I pay attention. That is the kind of action that can sometimes mark the beginning of a change in character.

Looking at the daily chart adds even more context. MSOS now appears to have the potential to form a double bottom at 3.53. Of course, that setup is not confirmed yet. For me, confirmation would come with a decisive move through resistance at 4.14. Until that level is taken out, it remains only a possibility. Still, the setup is there, and that alone makes the chart more interesting than it has been in quite some time.

Another thing worth highlighting is volume. Today, MSOX posted its highest daily volume candle of the year. That matters to me because volume is one of the clearest ways to judge conviction. When I combine relative strength with unusually heavy volume, I see that as evidence that money may be rotating into the group.

That said, one good day is not enough. Now I want to see follow through tomorrow. Without that, this could easily turn into another false start, which this sector has delivered plenty of before. Still, I have to admit that today’s action was encouraging, and I’ll be watching closely to see how the rest of the week unfolds.

CURLF Holds the Line: Cycle Timing, 200-Day Support, and Early Signs of Leadership

 

So far, the analysis I wrote about ten days ago for CURLF has been spot on, so I want to walk through it again with an update and explain why this area continues to matter. Above is the daily chart of CURLF, and in the lower pane is MSOS, which gives important context for what’s happening under the surface.

On February 9th, I pointed out that CURLF was sitting right on its 200-day moving average. That level isn’t magic, but it does tend to matter, especially in beaten-down groups where institutions are looking for a place to step back in. My thinking at the time was simple: if this stock was going to stabilize anywhere, this was the logical spot. So far, that view has held up. Over the past ten days, the 200-day moving average has acted as support, with price probing it but not decisively breaking below.

What made that test even more compelling was the timing. This move down into the 200-day coincided almost perfectly with the 50-day cycle I had written about. Cycles don’t give exact turning points, but they do define time windows where reversals are more likely. In this case, I said this window was ideal for a cyclical low to form. When price, time, and support line up, that’s usually when I start paying much closer attention.

Fast forward to today’s action, and it looks like we’re finally getting confirmation that a low may be in place. Confirmation doesn’t mean certainty, nothing in markets ever does but the character of the price action is starting to change. Selling pressure appears to be drying up, and buyers are becoming more visible. That’s often how meaningful lows form, not with fireworks at first, but with quiet absorption.

One of the most important tells, in my view, comes from the relative strength comparison with MSOS in the lower pane. From point A to point B, MSOS made a lower low. CURLF did not. Instead, CURLF put in a higher low. That divergence is classic relative strength. When the broader group makes a new low but a leading stock refuses to confirm it, that’s usually a sign that stronger hands are accumulating shares.

This is exactly the kind of behavior I look for when trying to identify potential leaders early. CURLF isn’t outperforming by accident here. Buyers were clearly willing to step in sooner and more aggressively than they were in the ETF. That doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does tilt the odds in favor of a constructive outcome.

I want to be clear: I’m not claiming this is “the” bottom or that price can’t revisit these levels. Markets rarely move in straight lines. But when I step back and look at the full picture, the 200-day moving average holding, the cycle window lining up, and the relative strength versus MSOS,  I have to respect what the chart is telling me.

One can never be sure what will happen next, but so far, I like what I’m seeing.

You can read my original commentary regarding CURLF and its 50 day cycle here.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Finally Speaks: A Gap Fill, Relative Strength, and a Potential Turning Point

 

Finally, something to talk about in MSOS. After what has felt like a relentless and grueling two months, I’ll admit it was refreshing to see a session that actually mattered. Since MSOS topped out on December 18th, the tape has been unforgiving. Week after week, I watched each support level get taken out one by one. No drama, no snapback rallies just steady pressure and a market that refused to reward early optimism. Those are the kinds of stretches that test patience and discipline, especially when you’re trying to stay objective instead of emotional.

As the weeks dragged on, there was really only one level left that mattered to me, the open gap from December 11th. That gap wasn’t just a random reference point on the chart. It was the last meaningful support from the prior advance, and in my mind it represented the final line between a normal correction and something more damaging. 

Today, it finally happened. MSOS traded down and filled that December 11th gap, and more importantly, buyers showed up in a big way. That alone got my attention, but what really stood out was the character of the move as the day developed. The real tip-off came right after lunch. The S&P pushed to a fresh low on the day, but MSOS refused to confirm it. That relative strength divergence is the kind of subtle tell that doesn’t always show up in a headline, but it matters. It’s often the market’s way of whispering before it starts talking out loud.

Once resistance was taken out (specifically the high of day) the tone changed. MSOS exploded into the close, hitting a high at 4.28.That kind of late-day acceleration isn’t random. It suggests urgency, short covering, and fresh buyers stepping in with conviction rather than hope.

On the daily chart, the structure is even more interesting. We just printed a multi-day bullish engulfing pattern, and the context is what makes it significant. This pattern formed immediately after filling that key gap, not in the middle of nowhere. When you see an engulfing pattern appear at a well-defined support level, it carries far more weight. Add in today’s clear range expansion, and you have the ingredients for a potential trend shift rather than just a one-day bounce.

I’m not declaring victory or calling for a straight line move higher. This market has been too unforgiving for that kind of certainty. But cycles and seasonals still remain bullish, and now price is finally starting to align with that backdrop. After weeks of damage, seeing strength appear exactly where it should is encouraging.

For now, I’m focused on follow-through. If today’s range expansion is real, the next few sessions should confirm it. Let’s see how things unfold.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS: Basing at Support as We Wait for the Next Catalyst

 

Another week has come to a close, and honestly, there’s nothing especially exciting to report. That in itself probably explains the mood around here. Above is the daily chart of MSOS, and as you can clearly see, we’ve been moving sideways for the past two weeks. No real expansion in range, no decisive breakout, just a slow grind back and forth within a tightening range. It’s not dramatic, but it is information.

The 50-day cycle still suggests that higher prices should begin to emerge in the weeks ahead. That timing window hasn’t changed. If anything, the longer we base here near support, the more meaningful the eventual move could be. The bottom of the channel continues to hold as support, and the gap at 3.76 remains intact. Until that level is decisively broken, the technical structure is still constructive. Price is sitting right where it needs to hold.

It was admittedly a little disappointing that Pam Bondi wasn’t asked about cannabis during her recent appearance. Given how sensitive this space is to any hint of regulatory progress, that omission likely contributed to the lackluster trading we’ve been seeing. There was no new narrative catalyst, no headline spark, and in this sector, silence often translates into drift.

The bigger question still hangs in the air: when will cannabis rescheduling finally be finalized? At this point, trying to predict the timing feels like a fool’s game. Everyone has been wrong about it, myself included. Rather than guessing when the next update will hit the tape, I’m choosing to focus strictly on the technical signals in front of me. The chart doesn’t care about my opinions or anyone else’s timeline. It simply reflects supply and demand.

Right now, we are sitting at key support. Time cycles are pointing higher. Seasonals are also favorable. Historically, January and February have been strong months for cannabis stocks. So far, those seasonals haven’t really exerted their influence this year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Sometimes the bias kicks in late. If we’re going to see that bullish tilt, the next couple of weeks would be the window for it to show up.

I won’t sugarcoat it, this has been frustrating. I’ve had capital tied up in this space since last summer, and we’ve essentially been meandering. Not only that, but we’ve given back some substantial open profits along the way. That’s part of trading cycles, but it doesn’t make it any less irritating.

Still, when I strip away the emotion and just look at the chart, the reward-to-risk ratio at these levels is favorable. We’re sitting on defined support. If it fails, I know where I’m wrong. If it holds and the cycle turns up as expected, the upside could be meaningful.

For now, patience remains the trade. Let’s see what next week brings.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

CURLF: When Price and Time Start to Line Up

 

The other day I mentioned that CURLF was starting to look like it might be ready to turn back up, so I figured I’d follow that up by posting a chart and walking through exactly what I’m seeing. Sometimes it’s easier to explain this stuff visually, and CURLF is a good example of how price and time can line up in a meaningful way.

Above is a daily chart of CURLF. The first thing that jumped out at me is how the stock has been behaving around the 200 day moving average. This level has acted as support in the past, and once again price has pulled back right into that zone and is holding. I don’t look at moving averages as magic lines, but when you see repeated reactions at the same level, you have to respect it. The market clearly knows where the 200 day is, and CURLF is no exception.

What makes this more interesting is the timing. We are now in the window for the 50 day cycle, which is due pretty much right here. I’ve talked about these cycles many times before, especially when it comes to cannabis stocks, and CURLF tends to respect them fairly well. When a cycle is due, I’m looking for signs of stabilization, loss of downside momentum, and ideally some form of higher low or tight price action. That’s exactly what we’re starting to see.

This is where price and time come together. On the price side, we have support at the 200 day moving average. On the time side, we have a 50 day cycle that is due now. When those two things align, it puts the stock on my radar. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does improve the odds that a low could be forming rather than a breakdown accelerating.

From here, it’s a matter of letting the market prove it. I want to see CURLF hold above the 200 day and start to push higher, ideally showing some relative strength versus the broader market. If that happens, this could turn into a solid swing setup. If not, then we move on. As always, we’ll see what happens in the days to come.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Gold Shows Relative Strength as Platinum and Silver Break Down

 

Above is a 4-hour chart of platinum futures, and in the lower panes I’ve added gold and silver for comparison. The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the divergence between the three metals. Both silver and platinum have broken down to new lows, but gold did not. That’s a big deal. Instead of confirming the weakness, gold is actually holding up and making a higher low, which is a classic sign of relative strength.

I’m always looking for these types of intermarket tells because they often give you a clue about what might lead on the next move. When most of the group is breaking down but one member refuses to go with them, that’s information. In this case, gold is acting like the strongest horse in the race, and that’s something I want to pay attention to.

Silver has been underperforming for a while, and platinum breaking down as well just reinforces that the industrial and more cyclical metals are still under pressure. Gold, on the other hand, is behaving differently. The higher low suggests that buyers are stepping in earlier, and that demand is stronger relative to the other metals. This doesn’t guarantee that gold will rally, but it does suggest that if the metals complex turns higher, gold is likely to lead.

What I’ll be watching closely next week is how gold behaves if we get a turn up in the sector. If platinum and silver stabilize and start to bounce, I want to see whether gold can push through Wednesday’s high. A move above that level would be a short-term trigger that buyers are taking control, and it could set up a tradable move higher.

This is where relative strength becomes actionable. I’m not just looking at gold in isolation, I’m comparing it to its peers. If the group turns up and gold is already showing strength, that’s the one I want to be focused on for potential long setups. Conversely, if the group continues lower, gold’s relative strength may simply mean it falls less, not that it rallies.

For now, gold is on my watchlist. The higher low stands out, and if we get confirmation with a break above Wednesday’s high, I’ll be paying very close attention for a potential buy setup.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Near a Decision Point as Cycles, Support, and Catalysts Align

 

Another week has come to an end, so I want to take a step back and update everything from a technical perspective and talk about what I’m watching as we head into next week. There are moments in the market where multiple factors start lining up at the same time, and MSOS is beginning to feel like one of those moments.

Above is the daily chart of MSOS with the 50-day cycle overlaid. As you can see, we are right in the heart of the time window where I would expect a cycle low to form and a rally to begin. Cycles don’t give you an exact day or price, but they do narrow the window dramatically, and that’s exactly where we are now. This is the same framework I’ve used many times before, and when it lines up with price, it gets my attention.

From a price standpoint, MSOS is sitting at a very interesting level. We are down at the bottom of a clearly defined channel, which by itself is notable. But it doesn’t stop there. That area also coincides with the open gap around 3.76 as well as the 200-day moving average. When you have a channel low, a gap, and the 200-day all clustering together, that’s what I consider a real confluence of support. These are the areas where markets often make decisions, and right now the odds favor stabilization and a turn higher rather than a clean breakdown.

Adding to the technical setup is a potential fundamental catalyst next week. Pam Bondi is scheduled to appear before a key House committee, and advocates are hopeful that lawmakers will press her for an update on the Justice Department’s progress in carrying out President Trump’s executive order to finalize the federal marijuana rescheduling process. Whether this turns into anything concrete remains to be seen, but markets often move on expectations and headlines. This could very well be the spark that ignites the next rally, especially with the technicals already coiled up the way they are.

Looking beyond MSOS, there are several individual names worth mentioning. TLRY has turned back up and is showing signs that support is holding. I trimmed some shares on Thursday, but I’m still holding roughly 65% of my original position. If I see some follow through on Monday, I’m very open to adding those shares back. The structure looks constructive, and I want to stay flexible.

CURLF, CRLBF, GTBIF, CRON, and TCNNF are all holding their 200-day moving averages, which is encouraging. In particular, I really like what CURLF is doing. The stock is tightly consolidating right on its 200-day, and that kind of tight action after a decline often precedes a meaningful move. The reward to risk ratio is favorable here so I added a little more CURLF today, the risk is well-defined and the setup makes sense within the broader group.

Overall, I’m heading into next week with cautious optimism. The cycles are lining up, support is clearly defined, and we may have a catalyst on deck. Now it’s about letting the market confirm. Everyone have a great weekend and thanks for taking the time to stop by, its appreciated.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

The Ratio Line Gave the Clue Before the Dow Broke Out

 

Using a Ratio Line to Read the Market

Today was a great example of how a simple ratio line can give you a real edge when the market is setting up for a big move. The Dow Jones Industrials went on to make new all-time highs, but the clues were there well before price actually broke out. Above is a 30-minute chart of DIA, and in the lower pane I have a ratio line of DIA versus SPY. This is one of my favorite ways to gauge relative strength in real time, especially during choppy or unclear market conditions.

Point A: Early Hints of Bullishness

At point A, DIA made a new low. On the surface, that looks bearish and is exactly the kind of price action that shakes people out or keeps them on the sidelines. But when I shifted my focus to the ratio line, something important stood out. While price made a lower low, the ratio line did not. It stopped making new lows and began to stabilize.

This is a classic bullish divergence. It was the first hint that DIA was starting to outperform SPY, even as price still looked weak. That said, this alone wasn’t enough for me to take a trade. Divergences can last longer than you expect, and I don’t like jumping in just because I see the first sign of potential strength. At this stage, it simply put DIA on my radar and told me to stay alert.

Points B and C: Strength Beneath the Surface

Things really started to get interesting at points B and C. During this entire period, DIA was going sideways. If you were only watching price, it looked like nothing was happening. No momentum, no breakout, just chop. This is where a lot of traders lose interest or start forcing trades in the wrong direction.

But the ratio line was telling a completely different story. Instead of going sideways, it was in a strong, steady uptrend. That meant DIA was consistently outperforming SPY during this consolidation. Even though price wasn’t moving higher yet, relative strength was building underneath the surface.

This is the kind of action I love to see. When price pauses but the ratio line keeps trending higher, it often means the market is coiling up for a move. Institutions don’t always chase breakouts; they often accumulate during quiet, sideways periods. The ratio line helps expose that accumulation.

The Breakout and Entry Opportunity

Once resistance was finally taken out, the picture became much clearer. Price confirmed what the ratio line had been signaling for a while. That breakout was your opportunity to enter the market with confidence, aligned with both price and relative strength.

Instead of chasing the move after it was obvious, the ratio line allowed you to anticipate it. That’s the real value here. You’re not predicting; you’re simply recognizing strength early and waiting for price to confirm.

Gaining an Edge with the Ratio Line

This was just a great example of how using a ratio line can help you gain an edge. It adds context to price action and helps separate meaningful consolidations from random chop. Today’s rally in the Dow didn’t come out of nowhere, the clues were there if you knew where to look.

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RDW Triggers at a Key Cycle Low

 

Above is a daily chart of RDW with its 52-day cycle plotted, a cycle I talked about just a few days ago. Coming into today, RDW was in the time window where I expected a cyclical low to form. That alone doesn’t mean you blindly buy, but it does mean I’m paying very close attention to price behavior. Today, I finally got what I was looking for, a trigger.

When I’m trading cycles, timing is only half the equation. The other half is confirmation from price. A cycle can say “a low should be forming,” but price still has to agree. In RDW’s case, price stepped up right where it needed to. If this cycle plays out the way it has in the past, the expectation is that RDW should begin trending higher over the coming days and weeks. I’m not calling a straight line move, but I am looking for higher highs and higher lows as the cycle turns up.

Risk management is always front and center for me, and this trade is no different. My protective stop would be placed a few ticks below yesterday’s low. That level makes sense structurally and keeps the risk clearly defined. If I’m wrong, I want to know quickly and get out with minimal damage. One of the biggest advantages of trading cyclical lows is that you can often define risk very tightly while still having meaningful upside if the trade works.

In the next chart, I zoomed in on the daily timeframe to better highlight the area where price held. What stands out immediately is the confluence of support. RDW held a significant support zone that includes the .618 Fibonacci retracement as well as prior highs from earlier in the move. Former resistance turning into support is something I always pay attention to, and when that lines up with a key Fibonacci level, it adds weight to the level.

This is where things start to get interesting. When you combine clear price support with an expected time window for a cyclical low, you get what I consider a high-probability setup. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, nothing ever is but it does mean the odds are stacked in my favor. These are the types of trades I want to take again and again over time.

For now, the work is done. I’ve identified the cycle, waited for price confirmation, defined my risk, and taken the trigger. The next step is patience. Now we let the market do what it’s going to do. Let’s see what next week brings.

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TLRY: A Case Study in Relative Weakness

 I received a few emails today asking why I sold part of my TLRY position, so I figured I’d give a quick update for anyone who’s interested and maybe clear up my thinking a bit. This wasn’t an emotional decision or a sudden change in my overall view of the cannabis space. It was simply a response to what the chart was telling me.

If you look at the 5-minute chart of TLRY above, with MSOS in the lower pane, the relative weakness really stands out. Yesterday, MSOS made a much higher high at point B compared to point A. That’s exactly what you want to see when momentum is improving. Now, if TLRY were acting well, you would expect it to do the same thing at the very least, make a similar higher high. Instead, TLRY did the opposite. At point B, it put in a much lower high. That divergence is classic relative weakness, and it immediately put TLRY on my radar.

That said, noticing relative weakness doesn’t automatically mean I hit the sell button especially on a lower time frame such as a 5 minute. I try not to front-run breakdowns. As long as support is holding, a weak stock can still snap back, especially in a sector that’s prone to sharp reversals. That’s why I didn’t sell anything yesterday, even after spotting the divergence. I wanted to see how price behaved at a key level.

This morning gave me my answer. On the open, TLRY broke short-term support, and that was my signal to act. I sold roughly one-third of my position, not because I think TLRY is “done,” but because the risk/reward shifted. When a stock shows relative weakness and then loses support, I’d rather play some defense than just sit there and hope.

My mindset with this trade is simple and flexible. If daily support holds and TLRY turns back up with improving volume and strength, I can always add those shares right back on. There’s no rule that says once you sell, you can’t buy again. I’d much rather re-enter on confirmation than stubbornly hold through a drawdown just to prove a point.

Looking at the daily chart now, TLRY is once again approaching gap support. This is an important area, and how the stock behaves here will tell us a lot. If buyers step in and defend this zone, the recent weakness could end up being nothing more than noise. If it fails, then selling that partial position will have been the right call.

For now, I’m watching closely and letting the chart do the talking.

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So Much for Four Green Days in a Row

 

Nobody expected MSOS to be green four days in a row, did they?  Of course, it would have been nice to see that kind of follow through, but instead we got a red day that completely wiped out the gains from the prior three sessions. That’s the frustrating part about trading this space, just when things start to feel constructive, the rug can get pulled out quickly. Even so, despite today’s disappointment, I still believe we are on the doorstep of an up cycle.

What bothered me most about today wasn’t just the red close, but the lack of follow-through from yesterday’s late day rally. When you see buyers step in during the final hours, you want to see that momentum carry into the next session. Instead, the market opened weak and never really recovered. That’s not what bulls want to see, especially when sentiment has finally started to shift after weeks of grinding action.

That said, the chart isn’t all bad news. If you look closely, MSOS put in a clean double bottom right at 3.89 to the penny, sitting directly on top of the gap fill area. That level clearly mattered. Buyers showed up there twice, and that tells me there is still demand lurking beneath the surface. For now, that support is intact, and as long as it holds, I’m willing to give this trade some room.

Because of that, I’m choosing to sit tight with what I have in MSOS and let things play out. Not every day needs action, and sometimes the best move is no move at all. Chopping yourself up during noisy sessions usually does more harm than good.

One adjustment I did make, however, was in TLRY. This stock has been showing too much relative weakness for my liking. Yesterday, when MSOS pushed to new highs late in the afternoon, TLRY couldn’t even get off the mat. That was a red flag. Then this morning, when we took out yesterday’s low, I sold one-third of my TLRY position. I’m not married to it. I can always add those shares back if and when I see bullish volume and real strength return.

For now, it’s a waiting game. Support has been defined, risk is clear, and patience is required. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

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Price Was Quiet, Relative Weakness Was Screaming in QQQ

 

Relative Weakness on Display in QQQ

What a great example of relative weakness in QQQ over yesterday and today. This is one of those moments where viewing the market through the lens of relative strength almost feels like having an X-ray machine. You’re not just seeing price, you’re seeing what’s happening under the surface and in this case, the message was loud and clear well before price finally gave way.

Above is a 10-minute chart of QQQ, and in the lower pane is the relative strength ratio of QQQ vs SPY. On the surface, QQQ didn’t look particularly threatening at first glance. Price was chopping sideways, nothing dramatic, nothing that would necessarily scare you out of a position if you were only watching candles.

But the relative strength line was telling a very different story.

Sideways Price, Weakening Internals

From point A to point B, QQQ price moved sideways. If you were focused solely on price action, you might have concluded that the market was simply digesting recent gains or pausing before another move higher. There was no obvious breakdown, no aggressive selling, and no sense of urgency.

However, the relative strength line was trending lower the entire time.

That’s the key. While price appeared stable, QQQ was quietly underperforming SPY. Capital was rotating away from QQQ, even though price hadn’t yet reflected that weakness. This is exactly why I rely so heavily on relative strength, it reveals what price alone hides.

The Early Warning at Point B

By the time we reached point B, the message became even clearer. The relative strength line had already broken to new lows, signaling confirmed relative weakness. This breakdown happened before QQQ itself broke support.

That’s the beauty of relative strength analysis: it often acts as a leading indicator. It doesn’t wait for the obvious breakdown. It alerts you while price is still lulling traders into a false sense of security.

If you were watching only price, there was no clear reason to expect trouble. But if you were watching relative strength, the warning signs were already flashing.

Price Finally Catches Up

Once support finally broke, QQQ did exactly what the relative strength line had been hinting at all along. The ETF trended lower yesterday and continued lower into today, confirming the earlier signal. What looked like harmless consolidation turned out to be distribution.

This is a textbook example of why I say that looking at price alone isn’t enough. Relative strength adds critical context. It tells you where money is flowing and more importantly, where it’s leaving.

Final Thoughts

This was just a great, clean example of relative weakness in action. Sideways price, deteriorating relative strength, an early breakdown in the ratio, and then price following lower shortly after. When you learn to trust what relative strength is telling you, you stop reacting late and start positioning early.

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Is RDW About to Do What It Usually Does Every 52 Days?

 This is now the sixth consecutive day where RDW has closed below its open, and that kind of short-term weakness is exactly what gets my attention. When I see multiple red closes in a row, I don’t automatically think “run away.” More often than not, I start thinking about pullbacks and whether the stock is setting up for a tradable low. In this case, I think RDW is pulling back into an area where a buy entry could start to make sense.

Above is a daily chart of RDW with its 52-day cycle highlighted in green. I want you to really study that chart, because the accuracy of these cyclical lows is hard to ignore. Roughly every 52 trading days, RDW has put in a meaningful low, and those lows have often marked excellent entry points. Cycles don’t need to be perfect to be useful, and in my opinion, this one has shown pretty darn good timing when it comes to identifying downside exhaustion.

I always encourage you to be your own judge when it comes to cycles. Look at the chart closely and decide for yourself if this pattern has merit. For me, the consistency is enough to take it seriously, especially when price action lines up with the timing window. The main reason I’m showing you this cycle is simple: we are now in the time window for another cyclical low if this pattern continues to hold up.

That said, I’m not in a rush to jump in blindly. Time alone isn’t a signal. What I want to see next is evidence that buyers are actually stepping in. That could show up in several ways, relative strength versus the market, a bullish engulfing candle on a lower time frame, or a surge in volume that suggests accumulation. Any of those would tell me that selling pressure is starting to dry up and demand is returning.

From a price perspective, support appears to be coming in around the $9 level. If RDW tests that area and we see a clean bounce, that may be enough for me to get long. I don’t need to catch the exact bottom; I just want confirmation that the low is likely in or very close.

The most important takeaway here is that RDW is currently sitting in a critical time window for a meaningful low. If this 52-day cycle continues to assert itself, the odds start to favor a reversal rather than further downside. Because of that, RDW is firmly on my radar, and I’ll be staying alert for a clear buy signal to present itself.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage