MRMD: Is This Cannabis Stock About to Ignite?

 There is another cannabis stock that has recently caught my attention, and that stock is MariMed (MRMD). While it may not be one of the more widely followed names in the cannabis sector, I think the recent price and volume action is worth paying attention to.

If you look at the daily chart above, one of the first things that jumps out at me is the heavy volume that came into the stock on Thursday and Friday. Whenever I see a sudden increase in volume like this, I take notice. Volume is one of the most important pieces of information on a chart because it can give me an indication that something has changed beneath the surface.

What makes the recent action even more interesting to me is what happened on the weekly chart. MRMD has reclaimed a key support level on heavy volume and, perhaps more importantly, closed right at the high of the week. In my opinion, that is a very bullish development.

I tend to look at moves like this differently depending on where they occur and how they develop. At this point, I would characterize the recent move as more of an igniting move than a climactic move. In other words, I don't necessarily view the surge in volume as evidence that everyone is rushing to get out. Instead, I think there is a possibility that we are seeing the beginning of something rather than the end of a move.

The company's recent earnings report gives me another reason to keep MRMD on my radar.

MariMed reported quarterly sales of $41.925 million, which was above the analyst consensus estimate of $39.8 million. Revenue also increased 5.84% from $39.611 million during the same period last year. Earnings came in at a loss of $0.01 per share, which was in line with analyst expectations.

What I found particularly encouraging was some of the operational commentary. Wholesale revenue increased 6% sequentially, while retail revenue increased 7% sequentially. Revenue increased at 12 of the company's 13 Thrive Dispensary locations, and transactions across the retail network also increased 7%.

Another thing that caught my attention was the company's branded product business. Management said distribution of its branded products increased to 85% of available storefronts on a trailing 12-month basis. Betty's Eddies remained the number-one-selling edible brand across MariMed's core states, while Vibations remained a top-10 brand.

Perhaps most importantly, adjusted gross margin held steady at 40% sequentially. In an industry where many operators continue to struggle with pricing pressure, I think maintaining profitability while continuing to grow revenue is encouraging.

None of this guarantees that MRMD is about to embark on a major rally. I've learned not to make that assumption with cannabis stocks. But when I combine improving operating results with a stock reclaiming an important support level, heavy volume, and a weekly close at the high, I think MRMD deserves a closer look.

For now, I'm watching it closely. If this volume continues to come into the stock and MRMD can build on this breakout, I think we could be looking at the early stages of a much more interesting move.

TRLV Continues to Flex Its Relative Strength

 

Well, it’s been a few weeks since my last post on cannabis stocks, so I figured it was time to give a little update. And so far, I have to say that things are working out pretty much exactly as I had hoped.

Back on July 31st, which is Point A on the chart, I posted about the reasons I was turning bullish on TRLV. At the time, I was seeing some very encouraging signs, particularly when it came to relative strength. Since then, TRLV has put together a really impressive move.

If you look at the daily chart above on the left, you can see the beautiful rally that has taken place over the past several weeks. The stock has continued to grind higher, producing a series of green candles along the way. What really caught my attention, however, is what has happened over the last three trading days. We’ve seen multiple strong green candles accompanied by expanding volume. That is exactly the type of price and volume action I like to see when a stock is beginning to establish itself as a leader.

One of my favorite tools for identifying potential opportunities is relative strength. Rather than simply looking at whether a stock is going up or down, I want to know how that stock is performing compared with its peers. In this case, I’ve been comparing TRLV to the MSOS cannabis ETF.

If you look at the ratio line on the chart above on the left, you can see something particularly encouraging, TRLV versus MSOS has broken out to a new high. This is precisely what I was anticipating when I turned bullish on the stock back in July.

To me, this is an important confirmation that TRLV is indeed emerging as one of the leading stocks in the cannabis sector. The price action is strong, volume is expanding, and now the relative strength line is confirming that TRLV is outperforming the broader cannabis group.

The next level I’m watching closely is the previous swing high of $13.28, which was established in June. I’d like to see this rally continue and eventually challenge that level. As we get closer to $13.28, I’ll be watching volume carefully. Ideally, I’d like to see volume continue to expand as the stock approaches and potentially breaks through that resistance.

Of course, nothing moves straight up forever, so a pullback wouldn’t surprise me at all. In fact, if we do get a healthy pullback, I would view that as a potential opportunity to add to my long position, assuming the underlying strength remains intact.

If you’d like to read my original post from last month, you can do so by clicking “Don’t Ignore This Bullish Signal in TRLV.”

Is Tilray Finally Ready to Wake Up?

 

Could the long awaited turnaround in Tilray finally be getting underway? I'm not ready to declare victory just yet, but I have to admit the chart is beginning to look much more interesting than it has in a very long time.

Take a look at the daily chart above. Over the past two trading days, TLRY has posted two of the strongest bullish sessions we've seen in many months. Just as important as the price action is the volume behind the move. Buying volume has surged, giving us the heaviest green volume days we've seen in quite some time. Whenever I see unusually heavy volume accompanying a strong advance, I pay attention because it often signals that institutional investors may be accumulating shares.

Now shift your attention to the weekly chart on the right. One thing immediately stands out: TLRY has formed a bullish outside reversal bar. That's a pattern I always like to see after a prolonged decline because it tells me buyers stepped in aggressively after sellers initially pushed prices lower. Even more encouraging is where this reversal occurred. The pattern developed right at a major long-term support area, which makes the signal much more meaningful.

Momentum is also beginning to improve. The weekly MACD, one of my favorite momentum indicators, has just generated its first bullish crossover in many months. By itself, a MACD crossover doesn't guarantee higher prices, but when it occurs alongside a bullish reversal pattern, expanding volume, and major support, it certainly gets my attention.

Speaking of volume, this past week's buying volume was the strongest bullish weekly volume we've seen since September 2025. That tells me this wasn't just another ordinary bounce. Someone was buying, and they were buying aggressively.

Fundamentally, Tilray also gave investors something to think about with its recently released fiscal 2026 earnings. The company reported record annual revenue of $915.5 million, an 11% increase over last year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $61.1 million, while gross profit also reached a record level. Looking ahead, management expects adjusted EBITDA to increase again in fiscal 2027 to between $68 million and $75 million. While these numbers don't suddenly transform Tilray into a high-growth company, they do suggest management is making steady progress and that the business is moving in the right direction.

From my perspective, improving fundamentals combined with improving technicals make for an interesting combination.

As for my trading plan, it's very straightforward. A break above last week's high of $4.56 will likely get me long. My stop would be below the major support area near $3.50, giving me approximately $1.00 of downside risk.

Could the trade fail? Absolutely. There are never any guarantees in the stock market. But when I weigh the relatively small amount of risk against the upside potential, especially considering how explosive Tilray has been during previous cannabis rallies, I think it's a risk worth taking. As always, I'm sharing what I'm seeing before the move, not after the fact. Whether TLRY becomes one of the next leaders remains to be seen, but it's definitely a stock I'll be watching very closely

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Don't Ignore This Bullish Signal in TRLV

 

Well, another month has come to a close, and unfortunately it was another disappointing one for cannabis investors. If you've been following my blog for a while, you know I'm a big believer in seasonality. Historically, July has been one of the most bullish months of the year for marijuana stocks, so I came into the month expecting the sector to finally show some life. Instead, we got the exact opposite.

Rather than rallying, cannabis stocks spent most of July drifting lower and breaking important support levels along the way. Needless to say, that wasn't what I expected. Does that change my long-term outlook? Not at all.

The truth is, nobody knows when this sector is finally going to wake up. It could be next week, next month, or several months from now. That's simply the reality of investing in a beaten down sector. But one thing I have learned over the years is that the biggest moves usually begin when the majority of investors have already given up hope. That's why I believe it's so important to have a game plan before the rally begins instead of trying to figure things out after prices have already exploded higher.

One cannabis stock that continues to stand out to me is TRLV. If you look at the daily chart above, you'll notice there really isn't much to get excited about. During the month of July, the stock basically moved sideways with a slight downward bias. If you were only looking at the price chart, you'd probably move on to something else.

But that's exactly why I spend so much time studying relative strength.

Now take a look at the ratio chart comparing TRLV to MSOS. Suddenly, the picture changes. While the stock itself has gone nowhere, the ratio line has been climbing steadily higher. In fact, it's now sitting at a new five-week high. To me, that's a very encouraging sign because it tells me TRLV is quietly outperforming the cannabis ETF even though the sector as a whole continues to struggle.

I've said it many times before: the strongest stocks usually reveal themselves before they actually begin making major price advances. Relative strength often gives us an early clue about where institutional money may be flowing, and right now TRLV is showing exactly the kind of behavior I like to see.

My expectation is that when MSOS finally turns higher and I do believe that day is coming, TRLV has an excellent chance of leading the cannabis sector. That's one of the reasons it remains one of my favorite cannabis holdings, and I continue to believe much higher prices are ahead.

I also want to point out something that's important. Notice the timing of this post. I'm not writing about TRLV after it has already made a huge move or after everyone on social media is talking about it. I'm sharing what I'm seeing before the breakout happens. Will I be right? Of course, there's no guarantee. The market has a way of humbling all of us. But if you're looking for a cannabis stock that is quietly showing leadership while everyone else is focused on the weakness in the sector, I believe TRLV deserves a spot at the top of your watch list.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Why I'm Watching CURLD Closely Heading Into July

 

Above is a daily chart of CURLD, and in the lower pane you'll see the MACD indicator. One of the patterns I've noticed for this stock is that when the MACD is below the zero line and then produces a bullish crossover, the stock often goes on to rally. It's certainly not a perfect signal, but it has proven to be a useful tool for identifying potential turning points after periods of weakness.

If you look at the chart, you'll see several examples of this setup. At points A, B, C, and D, the MACD crossed higher while still below the zero line. In each case, the stock responded positively. Point C spent more time moving sideways than trending higher, but the bullish crossover still marked the end of the previous decline. The other signals led to much stronger advances.

Now we're seeing a very similar setup develop once again.

The MACD remains below the zero line, but it's beginning to curl upward. If it completes a bullish crossover, I'll be paying very close attention. On its own, I believe this setup has better than a 50% chance of producing a profitable move. However, I've found that no single indicator should ever be relied upon by itself. Instead, I like to stack multiple factors in my favor before committing capital.

That's where seasonality comes into the picture.

Above is a seasonal table for CURLD, and one statistic immediately jumps off the page. Historically, July has been the stock's strongest month, producing a bullish move approximately 85% of the time. Granted, the historical data only goes back to 2018, so we're dealing with a relatively small sample size. Even with that limitation, July stands out by a wide margin as the most favorable month on the calendar for this stock.

When I combine those two factors, a potential MACD buy signal and a very strong seasonal tailwind, I believe the probability of success increases meaningfully. Neither one guarantees the stock will rally, but together they create a setup that deserves my attention.

This is exactly how I like to approach trading. Rather than relying on a single indicator or making emotional decisions, I prefer to look for situations where technical analysis, seasonality, and probability all point in the same direction. The more pieces of evidence I can gather, the more confidence I have in taking a trade.

I'm not blindly buying just because the calendar is turning to July. I still want to see confirmation from the MACD and, ideally, some improvement in price action before getting involved. If those pieces begin to fall into place over the next several trading sessions, CURLD could become one of the more interesting cannabis stocks on my watch list.

I'll be stalking this trade closely in the days ahead to see if everything comes together.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Will History Repeat Itself for TLRY This July?

 

Above is a monthly chart of TLRY, and as you can see, this has been one of the weakest cannabis stocks in the group. All year long it has displayed relative weakness compared to MSOS, which has spent most of the year moving sideways rather than trending lower. That relative weakness is the main reason I threw in the towel on TLRY several months ago. I simply didn't see a reason to stay invested when there were much stronger opportunities elsewhere in the sector.

Having said that, we're now approaching a very interesting time of year for TLRY from a seasonal perspective.

Historically, July has been TLRY's strongest month. Based on the data we have, the stock has rallied during July roughly 71% of the time. Now, it's important to keep this statistic in perspective because TLRY has only been trading since 2018, so we're working with a relatively small sample size. Even so, July clearly stands out as its most bullish month, making it a seasonal tendency that's worth paying attention to.

Another thing that caught my eye is the monthly chart itself. In recent years, whenever TLRY has managed to take out the high from the month of June, it has often followed through with a respectable rally. There's certainly no guarantee history repeats itself, but it's a pattern that has shown up enough times for me to keep it on my radar.

At the moment, I don't own any shares of TLRY, but I'm beginning to entertain the idea of getting back in if the technical picture starts improving. As many of you know from my post last week, I'm already bullish on MSOS. If MSOS begins a meaningful advance, there's a good chance the rest of the cannabis sector will participate as well. After all, you've probably heard the saying, "A rising tide lifts all boats."

That doesn't necessarily mean TLRY is my favorite cannabis stock. In fact, I still believe there are stronger names in the group, including GTBIF, CURLD, and TRLV  which have shown much better relative strength over the past several months. However, one thing I've learned over the years is that when TLRY finally starts moving, it can catch fire in a hurry. The stock has a history of making explosive moves once momentum returns.

What also makes this setup attractive is the current monthly trading range. Price has been consolidating in a relatively tight range, which helps define risk while leaving the door open for a potentially attractive reward if cannabis stocks begin their next leg higher.

I'll be watching closely to see if this seasonal pattern plays out once again. Let me know what you think in the comments.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Holds Critical Support: Is a Trend Reversal Beginning?

 

Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and as you can see, this market has been under pressure for the past couple of weeks. While the recent selling has certainly been frustrating for cannabis investors, I'd like to point out something on the chart that I believe deserves our attention.

Today, MSOS tested a very significant support zone between 4.30 and 4.45 and, more importantly, held it. This isn't just some random price area. If you look back at the chart, you'll notice this support zone first developed toward the end of last year. Since then, it has repeatedly acted as both resistance and support, making it one of the more important technical levels on the chart. Markets have a tendency to remember these types of price zones because they represent areas where buyers and sellers have repeatedly agreed on value.

What I find encouraging is that today's test of support was met with buyers stepping in aggressively enough to push the ETF well off its lows. Instead of closing weak, MSOS finished the session with a strong close above that support zone. When I see a market successfully defend a major level after an extended decline, it tells me that sellers may be losing some of their momentum.

Another positive development was today's noticeable expansion in trading volume. Increased volume doesn't guarantee a reversal, but it does tell me that there was greater participation during today's session. When higher volume accompanies a successful test of an important support level, I pay attention because it often signals institutional interest.

I've also drawn a trendline connecting the June 9th high with the subsequent lower highs. That downtrend has remained intact throughout this recent pullback, but we're getting close to challenging it. If MSOS can trade above today's high of 4.70, I believe that would also confirm a break of that descending trendline.

From my perspective, that's where things start to get interesting. A market that successfully holds a major support zone while simultaneously breaking a downtrend line often has the technical ingredients for at least a tradable bounce. No chart pattern is foolproof, and there are never any guarantees in the market, but when multiple technical factors begin lining up in the same direction, I believe the odds start shifting in favor of the bulls.

For now, I'm simply watching to see if buyers can build on today's strength. A move above 4.70 would be an encouraging next step and could attract additional momentum buyers. Whether this marks the beginning of a larger advance or just a short-term rally remains to be seen, but today's price action was certainly constructive. Let's see how things unfold tomorrow.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Relative Weakness In NVDA Could Lead To A Great Entry Opportunity

 Over the past few trading sessions I’ve been noticing some relative weakness developing in NVDA when compared to the SPY, and it’s something that immediately caught my attention as a trader. Relative strength and relative weakness are two of the biggest things I focus on intraday because they can often give clues about where institutional money is flowing. In this case, NVDA has clearly been lagging behind the broader market.

If you look at the chart above, you’ll see NVDA displayed on the top with the SPY directly below it for comparison purposes. What really stands out to me are the areas marked A, B, C, and D. At each of those points the SPY continued pushing to higher highs while NVDA was doing the exact opposite by putting in lower highs. That divergence is a textbook example of relative weakness. When a leading stock begins failing to confirm the strength of the overall market, it’s often a warning sign that momentum is slowing down.

For active day traders, this setup actually presented a solid opportunity on the short side. While the market itself continued grinding higher, NVDA struggled to keep pace and repeatedly failed at resistance levels. Those failed pushes created opportunities to scalp short-term downside moves throughout the day. In many cases, weak stocks in a strong market can offer some of the cleanest short setups because they tend to drop quickly once buying pressure dries up.

That said, I’m not bearish on NVDA longer term. In fact, when I shift over and look at the Daily chart on the right side, I actually see a very healthy pullback developing. After such a powerful run over the past couple of months, a retracement like this is completely normal and, in my opinion, even constructive. The stock now appears to be approaching a rising trend line that could act as an area of support. If buyers step in near that level, it could set up for another leg higher.

Because of that, I’m already thinking ahead to next week and planning how I want to position myself. Rather than chasing shares outright, my strategy will likely be to sell out of the-money puts around the 205 strike price. I like this approach because it allows me to collect premium while potentially entering the stock at a lower price if the options get exercised.

Even if my timing is slightly off and NVDA continues drifting lower temporarily, I honestly wouldn’t mind owning shares down near the 205 area. That would give me a solid entry on a high quality stock while also allowing me to keep the premium collected from selling the puts. For now, I’m staying patient and letting the charts guide me. It should be interesting to see how this setup unfolds next week.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Closes Strong at $4.14 as Late Day Momentum Signals Potential Breakout

 

Not a bad day at all for MSOS, and I have to admit it felt good seeing it finally close above that psychological $4 level. That’s one of those round numbers that tends to matter more than it should, but time and again the market proves that traders pay attention to it. Getting above it and more importantly holding it into the close is a small but meaningful win for the bulls.

When I look at the 5-minute chart, most of the session was honestly pretty forgettable. Price action was choppy and lacked conviction, the kind of day where it feels like neither side really has control. For the majority of the trading day, MSOS just drifted, with no real urgency from buyers to step in aggressively. If I had only checked midday, I probably would’ve written the day off as noise.

But the last hour completely changed the tone.

That’s where things got interesting. We saw a clear surge in buying, and what really caught my attention was the accompanying volume. It wasn’t just a slow grind higher, there was real participation behind the move. Volume expanding into the close is something I always watch closely because it can signal institutional involvement or at least a broader shift in sentiment. It tells me this wasn’t just retail chasing, it had some weight behind it.

Closing on the exact high of the day at 4.14 is another detail I don’t ignore. That kind of close suggests buyers were in control right into the bell, with no meaningful profit taking to push it down. It’s a subtle sign of strength, but in my experience, those closes tend to matter, especially when they line up with key levels on higher timeframes.

And that brings me to the daily chart.

Zooming out, it’s pretty clear that 4.14 isn’t just any number, it lines up perfectly with last month’s high. That makes it a level worth respecting. Markets have memory, and prior highs often act as resistance until proven otherwise. So while today’s action was encouraging, the real test comes next.

If we can clear 4.14 convincingly tomorrow, I think there’s a very good chance we see continuation to the upside. Breakouts above well defined levels like this can trigger momentum, especially if short sellers start to cover and sidelined buyers feel forced to chase.

This setup also reinforces what I wrote back on April 4th about momentum shifting in favor of the bulls. At that time, the technicals, especially the MACD turning bullish suggested that a change in character was underway. Now, we’re starting to see price action confirm that idea.

It’s still early, and one day doesn’t make a trend, but this is the kind of price behavior I want to see if MSOS is going to make a meaningful move higher.

April 4th commentary: MSOS Setting Up at Major Support as MACD Turns Bullish

INTC Breakout: A Textbook Relative Strength Winner

 Wow, what a week it’s been for the market, and especially for INTC. I’m still shaking my head a bit, not because I’m surprised, but because it’s always satisfying to see a setup play out exactly the way you anticipated. About a week ago, I wrote about how INTC was showing clear signs of strength. What really stood out to me wasn’t just the price action, it was the relative strength. The stock wasn’t just moving up; it was outperforming its peers and the broader market. That’s always one of my biggest tells that something meaningful could be unfolding.

If you look back at the chart I shared, the arrow marks the exact spot where I alerted readers right here on this site that INTC looked ready to move higher. At the time, it wasn’t about predicting the future, it was about recognizing a high probability setup. The stock had been acting well, holding key levels, and quietly building momentum while others were still chopping around and moving lower. That kind of behavior tends to precede strong moves, and that’s exactly what we got.

Since that post, INTC has absolutely exploded to the upside, hitting a high today of 63.39. Moves like that don’t happen by accident. They’re usually the result of accumulation, improving sentiment, and underlying strength that shows up in the relative performance before it becomes obvious to everyone else. That’s why I focus so heavily on relative strength, it gives me an edge in spotting leaders early.

Another important piece of the puzzle was the broader semiconductor space. I pointed out at the time that other semis were also starting to show strength, and that added even more conviction to the trade. When you see a stock leading within a strong group, it significantly increases the odds that the move has legs. It’s not just a one-off story, it’s part of a bigger trend. That kind of confirmation is something I always look for before committing capital.

To me, this trade was a textbook setup, something straight out of my playbook. It had all the elements I look for: relative strength, sector confirmation, and clean technical structure. Those are the kinds of trades I try to focus on consistently, because over time, that’s where the real edge comes from.

If you’re interested in how I use relative strength in my own trading, I go into much more detail in my book, Master The Market with Relative Strength. And if you want to revisit the original analysis from last week on INTC, feel free to go back and check out that post. It’s always valuable to study these setups in real time and see how they evolve.

CURLF Showing Relative Strength at a Key Support Level

 Above is a daily chart of CURLF, and in the lower pane I’m using a ratio line of CURLF versus MSOS to measure relative strength within the cannabis space. Right away, the first thing that stands out to me is the strong support level that CURLF has just bounced from, and I think that level is the key to the entire setup.

Back in November, CURLF found support just under the $2 area, and now we’re seeing buyers step back into the stock at that same level once again. I always pay close attention when a stock reacts positively at a prior support zone because it tells me that the market still recognizes that area as important. When a level has already proven itself in the past and then works again later, it tends to carry more weight in my analysis.

What I like here is not just the bounce itself, but the way the bounce is happening. We’re now seeing three above average sized green candles come off that support area, and that’s not something I ignore. Strong candles like that often tell me buyers are stepping in with conviction rather than just creating a weak dead cat bounce. To me, that kind of price action suggests demand is returning in a meaningful way.

The lower pane is also giving me a very important clue. As CURLF was retesting support, the ratio line versus MSOS was actually showing bullish divergence. In other words, while price was coming back down toward that support level, the stock was quietly beginning to outperform the broader cannabis ETF. That’s something I always find encouraging because it can often be an early signal that the stock is beginning to strengthen beneath the surface before the price chart fully reflects it.

What makes this even more interesting is that the ratio line now looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out of its consolidation before price does. That’s exactly the kind of pattern I like to watch for because relative strength often acts as a leading indicator. When I see the ratio line improving ahead of a clear price breakout, it tells me that buyers may already be positioning in anticipation of a larger move.

Of course, I still want to see the cannabis sector continue to improve overall. If MSOS can keep moving higher and the group starts to gain momentum, I think CURLF has a very good chance of emerging as one of the stronger names in the space. It’s already showing the kind of relative behavior I want to see in a potential leader.

For that reason, CURLF is definitely one I think is worth watching here. It’s sitting on proven support, showing strong buying pressure off the lows, and beginning to outperform its sector. In my opinion, that combination gives it the potential to become one of the leaders if the cannabis trade continues to develop.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

INTC Starting to Act Like a Leader

 

Above is a daily chart of INTC, and in the lower pane I’m using SPY for comparison. One of the things I’m always looking for is relative strength, especially during periods when the broader market is under pressure, and I think INTC has been showing a very clear example of that.

If you look closely from point A to point B, the contrast between INTC and SPY really stands out. SPY went on to make a much lower low at point B, which tells you the overall market was still getting hit pretty hard. But while the market was falling apart, INTC held up much better and actually made a considerably higher low at point B. To me, that is exactly the kind of price action that deserves attention.

This is one of the classic signs of relative strength. When the market gets hammered but a stock refuses to break down with it, that usually means there is underlying demand supporting the name. In other words, buyers are stepping in sooner and with more confidence than they are in the broader market. That doesn’t always lead to an immediate breakout, but it often gives me an early clue about where money may be quietly rotating.

What I like about this setup is that the relative strength isn’t just subtle, it’s pretty obvious on the chart. INTC didn’t just survive the market weakness; it absorbed it and then began to stabilize in a constructive way. When I see that kind of action, I start thinking less about what the market is doing in the moment and more about what the stock may do once market pressure starts to ease.

Another bullish development is that INTC has now broken out above its trendline. That alone gets my attention, but what really adds conviction for me is the way it happened. The stock pushed through that area with three large consecutive green candles, which is not the kind of action I like to ignore. Strong candles in succession often signal urgency from buyers, and when they appear after a period of relative strength, I view that as an important shift in character.

I’m also encouraged by the fact that INTC is not acting strong in isolation. Several other semiconductor names have been showing relative strength as well, and that kind of group behavior matters. When I see multiple stocks in the same sector starting to outperform together, it often suggests that institutional money is moving into that space. Sector confirmation can go a long way in supporting an individual setup.

At this point, I think INTC is in a favorable position technically. It has held up better than the broader market, it has broken trendline resistance with authority, and it’s doing so alongside strength in other semiconductors. For those reasons, I expect higher prices in the weeks ahead and will be watching to see if this momentum continues to build.

NFLX Showing Relative Strength Ahead of a Potential Breakout

 

Over the past several weeks, NFLX has really caught my attention, and I think it’s setting up in a way that traders should be paying close attention to. On the daily chart above, I’m looking at a stock that has been acting far better than much of the broader market, and that kind of behavior is always worth noting. In the lower pane, I’m using a ratio line of NFLX versus SPY, and that comparison is telling an important story.

Back in late February, NFLX had a powerful gap higher, and since then it has been working through a consolidation phase. That kind of price action is often constructive because rather than immediately giving back the move, the stock has been digesting gains in an orderly fashion. To me, that suggests institutions may still be involved and that the stock is being accumulated rather than distributed. When a stock gaps up and then holds the bulk of that move, I always see that as something potentially bullish.

What stands out even more is what happened two weeks ago. NFLX pulled back and tested the beginning of that gap area, which is a spot I would expect to matter technically. Instead of falling apart, buyers stepped in and defended the level. That support tells me demand is still present, and it reinforces the idea that the gap wasn’t just a one day event. It now looks more like a meaningful reference point on the chart.

The real reason I’m interested here, though, is the relative strength. While the overall market has had its ups and downs (mostly down), NFLX has continued to show leadership. In the bottom pane, the ratio line is doing something I pay very close attention to: it has already broken out to a new swing high ahead of price itself. That’s a pattern I respect because the ratio line often acts like a leading indicator. When relative strength improves before price actually clears resistance, it can be an early clue that a breakout may be coming.

In my experience, when I see a stock outperforming quietly beneath the surface while price is still consolidating, it often means the stock is preparing for its next leg higher. That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course, but it definitely puts the name on my radar.

From here, I’ll be watching closely for a breakout over the $100.19 high. That level is the trigger that would tell me price is finally ready to confirm what the ratio line has already been hinting at. If NFLX can clear that area with conviction, I think there’s a reasonable path toward the $110 zone. As long as relative strength continues to lead, I’ll stay constructive on the setup.

MSOS Setting Up at Major Support as MACD Turns Bullish

This past week was very interesting for the cannabis stocks, and I want to point out a few things that really stood out to me on the chart. Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane is the MACD indicator. When I look at a setup like this, I’m not just looking for random movement or trying to force a bullish opinion. I want to see whether price is reacting at a meaningful level and whether momentum is beginning to confirm that reaction. Right now, I think that’s exactly what may be taking place.

The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the major support and resistance zone between $3.00 and $3.35. This is not just some arbitrary line drawn on the chart. This is an area where the market has repeatedly shown us that buyers and sellers care. If you look back, you can see that this zone has acted as both support and resistance numerous times in the past. Every time price has entered this area, the market has responded with a significant move. That is the type of level I pay very close attention to because repeated reactions at the same zone usually mean there is real supply and demand there.

When a level is tested many times and the market continues to react from it, I take notice. That tells me the level has memory. It tells me traders are seeing the same thing, and that’s important because the more eyes on a level, the more meaningful it often becomes. Right now, MSOS appears to be bouncing from that exact support zone, and that immediately puts it on my radar.

The second thing I want to point out is what is happening in the lower pane with the MACD. At point D, the MACD has just now crossed to the upside, giving what many traders would consider a bullish buy signal. On its own, that doesn’t mean much to me. I’ve said many times that I do not rely on indicators by themselves. In fact, a MACD cross in the middle of nowhere is something I usually ignore. But when momentum starts to turn at a major level of support, that gets my attention.

What makes this especially interesting is that we’ve seen this exact behavior before. Every time the MACD was below the zero line and then gave a bullish crossover to the upside, the market rallied significantly afterward. You can see this at points A, B, and C, and now once again at point D. That type of repetition is important because it shows a pattern that has been respected multiple times before.

Take a closer look at point B. The MACD gave a bullish signal while price was holding support, and what followed was a very strong move higher. Then look at point C. Once again, the MACD crossed bullishly at an established support area, and the result was another explosive move to the upside. Those are the types of setups I want to see because they combine price structure with momentum confirmation.

And that’s really the key here. MACD signals by themselves mean very little to me unless they are combined with other tools. I want to see alignment. I want support and resistance, relative strength, volume, and momentum all working together. When multiple factors start lining up at the same time, that’s when I begin to pay closer attention because those are often the setups that can lead to meaningful moves.

Now at point D, we once again have a bullish MACD crossover occurring right at this same important support zone. That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course, but it does suggest that momentum may be starting to shift in favor of the bulls. If that’s the case, then I think higher prices are likely, especially if MSOS can reclaim and close back above $4.00. That would be an important sign that buyers are regaining control and that this bounce has real follow-through behind it.

For now, I think this is a chart worth watching very closely. We have a major level, we have momentum beginning to confirm it, and we have prior examples on the chart showing how powerful these setups can become. Now we wait and see how things unfold.

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Cannabis Stocks Finally Show a Pulse

 

It’s been a while since I last posted about the cannabis stocks and honestly, there has not been much reason to. For most of the month, the group has done very little. Price action has been choppy, directionless, and mostly drifting sideways to lower. That kind of environment usually keeps me on the sidelines because there is no edge in forcing trades when the sector is not showing any real leadership. Today, though, the action finally caught my attention, and I wanted to share what I’m seeing.

What stood out to me was the intraday behavior in MSOS compared to the broader market. On the 5-minute chart, while the S&P 500 was pressing to new lows for the day around 12:30, MSOS was not following it lower. Instead, it was holding up extremely well and consolidating near the highs of the morning. That immediately got my attention because when a sector refuses to break down while the market is weak, I view that as a sign that something may be changing beneath the surface. To me, that kind of divergence is often an early clue that relative strength is starting to emerge.

As the day developed, that interpretation only became more convincing. MSOS continued to hold its ground, and once resistance was cleared, buyers stepped in aggressively and pushed the ETF higher for the rest of the afternoon. That type of move suggests to me that money was entering the space, not just random short covering or noise. When I see a stock or sector absorb market weakness, tighten up near the highs, and then expand upward once resistance gives way, I pay attention. That is the kind of action that can sometimes mark the beginning of a change in character.

Looking at the daily chart adds even more context. MSOS now appears to have the potential to form a double bottom at 3.53. Of course, that setup is not confirmed yet. For me, confirmation would come with a decisive move through resistance at 4.14. Until that level is taken out, it remains only a possibility. Still, the setup is there, and that alone makes the chart more interesting than it has been in quite some time.

Another thing worth highlighting is volume. Today, MSOX posted its highest daily volume candle of the year. That matters to me because volume is one of the clearest ways to judge conviction. When I combine relative strength with unusually heavy volume, I see that as evidence that money may be rotating into the group.

That said, one good day is not enough. Now I want to see follow through tomorrow. Without that, this could easily turn into another false start, which this sector has delivered plenty of before. Still, I have to admit that today’s action was encouraging, and I’ll be watching closely to see how the rest of the week unfolds.

CURLF Holds the Line: Cycle Timing, 200-Day Support, and Early Signs of Leadership

 

So far, the analysis I wrote about ten days ago for CURLF has been spot on, so I want to walk through it again with an update and explain why this area continues to matter. Above is the daily chart of CURLF, and in the lower pane is MSOS, which gives important context for what’s happening under the surface.

On February 9th, I pointed out that CURLF was sitting right on its 200-day moving average. That level isn’t magic, but it does tend to matter, especially in beaten-down groups where institutions are looking for a place to step back in. My thinking at the time was simple: if this stock was going to stabilize anywhere, this was the logical spot. So far, that view has held up. Over the past ten days, the 200-day moving average has acted as support, with price probing it but not decisively breaking below.

What made that test even more compelling was the timing. This move down into the 200-day coincided almost perfectly with the 50-day cycle I had written about. Cycles don’t give exact turning points, but they do define time windows where reversals are more likely. In this case, I said this window was ideal for a cyclical low to form. When price, time, and support line up, that’s usually when I start paying much closer attention.

Fast forward to today’s action, and it looks like we’re finally getting confirmation that a low may be in place. Confirmation doesn’t mean certainty, nothing in markets ever does but the character of the price action is starting to change. Selling pressure appears to be drying up, and buyers are becoming more visible. That’s often how meaningful lows form, not with fireworks at first, but with quiet absorption.

One of the most important tells, in my view, comes from the relative strength comparison with MSOS in the lower pane. From point A to point B, MSOS made a lower low. CURLF did not. Instead, CURLF put in a higher low. That divergence is classic relative strength. When the broader group makes a new low but a leading stock refuses to confirm it, that’s usually a sign that stronger hands are accumulating shares.

This is exactly the kind of behavior I look for when trying to identify potential leaders early. CURLF isn’t outperforming by accident here. Buyers were clearly willing to step in sooner and more aggressively than they were in the ETF. That doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does tilt the odds in favor of a constructive outcome.

I want to be clear: I’m not claiming this is “the” bottom or that price can’t revisit these levels. Markets rarely move in straight lines. But when I step back and look at the full picture, the 200-day moving average holding, the cycle window lining up, and the relative strength versus MSOS,  I have to respect what the chart is telling me.

One can never be sure what will happen next, but so far, I like what I’m seeing.

You can read my original commentary regarding CURLF and its 50 day cycle here.

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MSOS Finally Speaks: A Gap Fill, Relative Strength, and a Potential Turning Point

 

Finally, something to talk about in MSOS. After what has felt like a relentless and grueling two months, I’ll admit it was refreshing to see a session that actually mattered. Since MSOS topped out on December 18th, the tape has been unforgiving. Week after week, I watched each support level get taken out one by one. No drama, no snapback rallies just steady pressure and a market that refused to reward early optimism. Those are the kinds of stretches that test patience and discipline, especially when you’re trying to stay objective instead of emotional.

As the weeks dragged on, there was really only one level left that mattered to me, the open gap from December 11th. That gap wasn’t just a random reference point on the chart. It was the last meaningful support from the prior advance, and in my mind it represented the final line between a normal correction and something more damaging. 

Today, it finally happened. MSOS traded down and filled that December 11th gap, and more importantly, buyers showed up in a big way. That alone got my attention, but what really stood out was the character of the move as the day developed. The real tip-off came right after lunch. The S&P pushed to a fresh low on the day, but MSOS refused to confirm it. That relative strength divergence is the kind of subtle tell that doesn’t always show up in a headline, but it matters. It’s often the market’s way of whispering before it starts talking out loud.

Once resistance was taken out (specifically the high of day) the tone changed. MSOS exploded into the close, hitting a high at 4.28.That kind of late-day acceleration isn’t random. It suggests urgency, short covering, and fresh buyers stepping in with conviction rather than hope.

On the daily chart, the structure is even more interesting. We just printed a multi-day bullish engulfing pattern, and the context is what makes it significant. This pattern formed immediately after filling that key gap, not in the middle of nowhere. When you see an engulfing pattern appear at a well-defined support level, it carries far more weight. Add in today’s clear range expansion, and you have the ingredients for a potential trend shift rather than just a one-day bounce.

I’m not declaring victory or calling for a straight line move higher. This market has been too unforgiving for that kind of certainty. But cycles and seasonals still remain bullish, and now price is finally starting to align with that backdrop. After weeks of damage, seeing strength appear exactly where it should is encouraging.

For now, I’m focused on follow-through. If today’s range expansion is real, the next few sessions should confirm it. Let’s see how things unfold.

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MSOS: Basing at Support as We Wait for the Next Catalyst

 

Another week has come to a close, and honestly, there’s nothing especially exciting to report. That in itself probably explains the mood around here. Above is the daily chart of MSOS, and as you can clearly see, we’ve been moving sideways for the past two weeks. No real expansion in range, no decisive breakout, just a slow grind back and forth within a tightening range. It’s not dramatic, but it is information.

The 50-day cycle still suggests that higher prices should begin to emerge in the weeks ahead. That timing window hasn’t changed. If anything, the longer we base here near support, the more meaningful the eventual move could be. The bottom of the channel continues to hold as support, and the gap at 3.76 remains intact. Until that level is decisively broken, the technical structure is still constructive. Price is sitting right where it needs to hold.

It was admittedly a little disappointing that Pam Bondi wasn’t asked about cannabis during her recent appearance. Given how sensitive this space is to any hint of regulatory progress, that omission likely contributed to the lackluster trading we’ve been seeing. There was no new narrative catalyst, no headline spark, and in this sector, silence often translates into drift.

The bigger question still hangs in the air: when will cannabis rescheduling finally be finalized? At this point, trying to predict the timing feels like a fool’s game. Everyone has been wrong about it, myself included. Rather than guessing when the next update will hit the tape, I’m choosing to focus strictly on the technical signals in front of me. The chart doesn’t care about my opinions or anyone else’s timeline. It simply reflects supply and demand.

Right now, we are sitting at key support. Time cycles are pointing higher. Seasonals are also favorable. Historically, January and February have been strong months for cannabis stocks. So far, those seasonals haven’t really exerted their influence this year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Sometimes the bias kicks in late. If we’re going to see that bullish tilt, the next couple of weeks would be the window for it to show up.

I won’t sugarcoat it, this has been frustrating. I’ve had capital tied up in this space since last summer, and we’ve essentially been meandering. Not only that, but we’ve given back some substantial open profits along the way. That’s part of trading cycles, but it doesn’t make it any less irritating.

Still, when I strip away the emotion and just look at the chart, the reward-to-risk ratio at these levels is favorable. We’re sitting on defined support. If it fails, I know where I’m wrong. If it holds and the cycle turns up as expected, the upside could be meaningful.

For now, patience remains the trade. Let’s see what next week brings.

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CURLF: When Price and Time Start to Line Up

 

The other day I mentioned that CURLF was starting to look like it might be ready to turn back up, so I figured I’d follow that up by posting a chart and walking through exactly what I’m seeing. Sometimes it’s easier to explain this stuff visually, and CURLF is a good example of how price and time can line up in a meaningful way.

Above is a daily chart of CURLF. The first thing that jumped out at me is how the stock has been behaving around the 200 day moving average. This level has acted as support in the past, and once again price has pulled back right into that zone and is holding. I don’t look at moving averages as magic lines, but when you see repeated reactions at the same level, you have to respect it. The market clearly knows where the 200 day is, and CURLF is no exception.

What makes this more interesting is the timing. We are now in the window for the 50 day cycle, which is due pretty much right here. I’ve talked about these cycles many times before, especially when it comes to cannabis stocks, and CURLF tends to respect them fairly well. When a cycle is due, I’m looking for signs of stabilization, loss of downside momentum, and ideally some form of higher low or tight price action. That’s exactly what we’re starting to see.

This is where price and time come together. On the price side, we have support at the 200 day moving average. On the time side, we have a 50 day cycle that is due now. When those two things align, it puts the stock on my radar. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does improve the odds that a low could be forming rather than a breakdown accelerating.

From here, it’s a matter of letting the market prove it. I want to see CURLF hold above the 200 day and start to push higher, ideally showing some relative strength versus the broader market. If that happens, this could turn into a solid swing setup. If not, then we move on. As always, we’ll see what happens in the days to come.

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Gold Shows Relative Strength as Platinum and Silver Break Down

 

Above is a 4-hour chart of platinum futures, and in the lower panes I’ve added gold and silver for comparison. The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the divergence between the three metals. Both silver and platinum have broken down to new lows, but gold did not. That’s a big deal. Instead of confirming the weakness, gold is actually holding up and making a higher low, which is a classic sign of relative strength.

I’m always looking for these types of intermarket tells because they often give you a clue about what might lead on the next move. When most of the group is breaking down but one member refuses to go with them, that’s information. In this case, gold is acting like the strongest horse in the race, and that’s something I want to pay attention to.

Silver has been underperforming for a while, and platinum breaking down as well just reinforces that the industrial and more cyclical metals are still under pressure. Gold, on the other hand, is behaving differently. The higher low suggests that buyers are stepping in earlier, and that demand is stronger relative to the other metals. This doesn’t guarantee that gold will rally, but it does suggest that if the metals complex turns higher, gold is likely to lead.

What I’ll be watching closely next week is how gold behaves if we get a turn up in the sector. If platinum and silver stabilize and start to bounce, I want to see whether gold can push through Wednesday’s high. A move above that level would be a short-term trigger that buyers are taking control, and it could set up a tradable move higher.

This is where relative strength becomes actionable. I’m not just looking at gold in isolation, I’m comparing it to its peers. If the group turns up and gold is already showing strength, that’s the one I want to be focused on for potential long setups. Conversely, if the group continues lower, gold’s relative strength may simply mean it falls less, not that it rallies.

For now, gold is on my watchlist. The higher low stands out, and if we get confirmation with a break above Wednesday’s high, I’ll be paying very close attention for a potential buy setup.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage