CURLF Holds the Line: Cycle Timing, 200-Day Support, and Early Signs of Leadership

 

So far, the analysis I wrote about ten days ago for CURLF has been spot on, so I want to walk through it again with an update and explain why this area continues to matter. Above is the daily chart of CURLF, and in the lower pane is MSOS, which gives important context for what’s happening under the surface.

On February 9th, I pointed out that CURLF was sitting right on its 200-day moving average. That level isn’t magic, but it does tend to matter, especially in beaten-down groups where institutions are looking for a place to step back in. My thinking at the time was simple: if this stock was going to stabilize anywhere, this was the logical spot. So far, that view has held up. Over the past ten days, the 200-day moving average has acted as support, with price probing it but not decisively breaking below.

What made that test even more compelling was the timing. This move down into the 200-day coincided almost perfectly with the 50-day cycle I had written about. Cycles don’t give exact turning points, but they do define time windows where reversals are more likely. In this case, I said this window was ideal for a cyclical low to form. When price, time, and support line up, that’s usually when I start paying much closer attention.

Fast forward to today’s action, and it looks like we’re finally getting confirmation that a low may be in place. Confirmation doesn’t mean certainty, nothing in markets ever does but the character of the price action is starting to change. Selling pressure appears to be drying up, and buyers are becoming more visible. That’s often how meaningful lows form, not with fireworks at first, but with quiet absorption.

One of the most important tells, in my view, comes from the relative strength comparison with MSOS in the lower pane. From point A to point B, MSOS made a lower low. CURLF did not. Instead, CURLF put in a higher low. That divergence is classic relative strength. When the broader group makes a new low but a leading stock refuses to confirm it, that’s usually a sign that stronger hands are accumulating shares.

This is exactly the kind of behavior I look for when trying to identify potential leaders early. CURLF isn’t outperforming by accident here. Buyers were clearly willing to step in sooner and more aggressively than they were in the ETF. That doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does tilt the odds in favor of a constructive outcome.

I want to be clear: I’m not claiming this is “the” bottom or that price can’t revisit these levels. Markets rarely move in straight lines. But when I step back and look at the full picture, the 200-day moving average holding, the cycle window lining up, and the relative strength versus MSOS,  I have to respect what the chart is telling me.

One can never be sure what will happen next, but so far, I like what I’m seeing.

You can read my original commentary regarding CURLF and its 50 day cycle here.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Finally Speaks: A Gap Fill, Relative Strength, and a Potential Turning Point

 

Finally, something to talk about in MSOS. After what has felt like a relentless and grueling two months, I’ll admit it was refreshing to see a session that actually mattered. Since MSOS topped out on December 18th, the tape has been unforgiving. Week after week, I watched each support level get taken out one by one. No drama, no snapback rallies just steady pressure and a market that refused to reward early optimism. Those are the kinds of stretches that test patience and discipline, especially when you’re trying to stay objective instead of emotional.

As the weeks dragged on, there was really only one level left that mattered to me, the open gap from December 11th. That gap wasn’t just a random reference point on the chart. It was the last meaningful support from the prior advance, and in my mind it represented the final line between a normal correction and something more damaging. 

Today, it finally happened. MSOS traded down and filled that December 11th gap, and more importantly, buyers showed up in a big way. That alone got my attention, but what really stood out was the character of the move as the day developed. The real tip-off came right after lunch. The S&P pushed to a fresh low on the day, but MSOS refused to confirm it. That relative strength divergence is the kind of subtle tell that doesn’t always show up in a headline, but it matters. It’s often the market’s way of whispering before it starts talking out loud.

Once resistance was taken out (specifically the high of day) the tone changed. MSOS exploded into the close, hitting a high at 4.28.That kind of late-day acceleration isn’t random. It suggests urgency, short covering, and fresh buyers stepping in with conviction rather than hope.

On the daily chart, the structure is even more interesting. We just printed a multi-day bullish engulfing pattern, and the context is what makes it significant. This pattern formed immediately after filling that key gap, not in the middle of nowhere. When you see an engulfing pattern appear at a well-defined support level, it carries far more weight. Add in today’s clear range expansion, and you have the ingredients for a potential trend shift rather than just a one-day bounce.

I’m not declaring victory or calling for a straight line move higher. This market has been too unforgiving for that kind of certainty. But cycles and seasonals still remain bullish, and now price is finally starting to align with that backdrop. After weeks of damage, seeing strength appear exactly where it should is encouraging.

For now, I’m focused on follow-through. If today’s range expansion is real, the next few sessions should confirm it. Let’s see how things unfold.

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MSOS: Basing at Support as We Wait for the Next Catalyst

 

Another week has come to a close, and honestly, there’s nothing especially exciting to report. That in itself probably explains the mood around here. Above is the daily chart of MSOS, and as you can clearly see, we’ve been moving sideways for the past two weeks. No real expansion in range, no decisive breakout, just a slow grind back and forth within a tightening range. It’s not dramatic, but it is information.

The 50-day cycle still suggests that higher prices should begin to emerge in the weeks ahead. That timing window hasn’t changed. If anything, the longer we base here near support, the more meaningful the eventual move could be. The bottom of the channel continues to hold as support, and the gap at 3.76 remains intact. Until that level is decisively broken, the technical structure is still constructive. Price is sitting right where it needs to hold.

It was admittedly a little disappointing that Pam Bondi wasn’t asked about cannabis during her recent appearance. Given how sensitive this space is to any hint of regulatory progress, that omission likely contributed to the lackluster trading we’ve been seeing. There was no new narrative catalyst, no headline spark, and in this sector, silence often translates into drift.

The bigger question still hangs in the air: when will cannabis rescheduling finally be finalized? At this point, trying to predict the timing feels like a fool’s game. Everyone has been wrong about it, myself included. Rather than guessing when the next update will hit the tape, I’m choosing to focus strictly on the technical signals in front of me. The chart doesn’t care about my opinions or anyone else’s timeline. It simply reflects supply and demand.

Right now, we are sitting at key support. Time cycles are pointing higher. Seasonals are also favorable. Historically, January and February have been strong months for cannabis stocks. So far, those seasonals haven’t really exerted their influence this year, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Sometimes the bias kicks in late. If we’re going to see that bullish tilt, the next couple of weeks would be the window for it to show up.

I won’t sugarcoat it, this has been frustrating. I’ve had capital tied up in this space since last summer, and we’ve essentially been meandering. Not only that, but we’ve given back some substantial open profits along the way. That’s part of trading cycles, but it doesn’t make it any less irritating.

Still, when I strip away the emotion and just look at the chart, the reward-to-risk ratio at these levels is favorable. We’re sitting on defined support. If it fails, I know where I’m wrong. If it holds and the cycle turns up as expected, the upside could be meaningful.

For now, patience remains the trade. Let’s see what next week brings.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

CURLF: When Price and Time Start to Line Up

 

The other day I mentioned that CURLF was starting to look like it might be ready to turn back up, so I figured I’d follow that up by posting a chart and walking through exactly what I’m seeing. Sometimes it’s easier to explain this stuff visually, and CURLF is a good example of how price and time can line up in a meaningful way.

Above is a daily chart of CURLF. The first thing that jumped out at me is how the stock has been behaving around the 200 day moving average. This level has acted as support in the past, and once again price has pulled back right into that zone and is holding. I don’t look at moving averages as magic lines, but when you see repeated reactions at the same level, you have to respect it. The market clearly knows where the 200 day is, and CURLF is no exception.

What makes this more interesting is the timing. We are now in the window for the 50 day cycle, which is due pretty much right here. I’ve talked about these cycles many times before, especially when it comes to cannabis stocks, and CURLF tends to respect them fairly well. When a cycle is due, I’m looking for signs of stabilization, loss of downside momentum, and ideally some form of higher low or tight price action. That’s exactly what we’re starting to see.

This is where price and time come together. On the price side, we have support at the 200 day moving average. On the time side, we have a 50 day cycle that is due now. When those two things align, it puts the stock on my radar. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does improve the odds that a low could be forming rather than a breakdown accelerating.

From here, it’s a matter of letting the market prove it. I want to see CURLF hold above the 200 day and start to push higher, ideally showing some relative strength versus the broader market. If that happens, this could turn into a solid swing setup. If not, then we move on. As always, we’ll see what happens in the days to come.

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Gold Shows Relative Strength as Platinum and Silver Break Down

 

Above is a 4-hour chart of platinum futures, and in the lower panes I’ve added gold and silver for comparison. The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the divergence between the three metals. Both silver and platinum have broken down to new lows, but gold did not. That’s a big deal. Instead of confirming the weakness, gold is actually holding up and making a higher low, which is a classic sign of relative strength.

I’m always looking for these types of intermarket tells because they often give you a clue about what might lead on the next move. When most of the group is breaking down but one member refuses to go with them, that’s information. In this case, gold is acting like the strongest horse in the race, and that’s something I want to pay attention to.

Silver has been underperforming for a while, and platinum breaking down as well just reinforces that the industrial and more cyclical metals are still under pressure. Gold, on the other hand, is behaving differently. The higher low suggests that buyers are stepping in earlier, and that demand is stronger relative to the other metals. This doesn’t guarantee that gold will rally, but it does suggest that if the metals complex turns higher, gold is likely to lead.

What I’ll be watching closely next week is how gold behaves if we get a turn up in the sector. If platinum and silver stabilize and start to bounce, I want to see whether gold can push through Wednesday’s high. A move above that level would be a short-term trigger that buyers are taking control, and it could set up a tradable move higher.

This is where relative strength becomes actionable. I’m not just looking at gold in isolation, I’m comparing it to its peers. If the group turns up and gold is already showing strength, that’s the one I want to be focused on for potential long setups. Conversely, if the group continues lower, gold’s relative strength may simply mean it falls less, not that it rallies.

For now, gold is on my watchlist. The higher low stands out, and if we get confirmation with a break above Wednesday’s high, I’ll be paying very close attention for a potential buy setup.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Near a Decision Point as Cycles, Support, and Catalysts Align

 

Another week has come to an end, so I want to take a step back and update everything from a technical perspective and talk about what I’m watching as we head into next week. There are moments in the market where multiple factors start lining up at the same time, and MSOS is beginning to feel like one of those moments.

Above is the daily chart of MSOS with the 50-day cycle overlaid. As you can see, we are right in the heart of the time window where I would expect a cycle low to form and a rally to begin. Cycles don’t give you an exact day or price, but they do narrow the window dramatically, and that’s exactly where we are now. This is the same framework I’ve used many times before, and when it lines up with price, it gets my attention.

From a price standpoint, MSOS is sitting at a very interesting level. We are down at the bottom of a clearly defined channel, which by itself is notable. But it doesn’t stop there. That area also coincides with the open gap around 3.76 as well as the 200-day moving average. When you have a channel low, a gap, and the 200-day all clustering together, that’s what I consider a real confluence of support. These are the areas where markets often make decisions, and right now the odds favor stabilization and a turn higher rather than a clean breakdown.

Adding to the technical setup is a potential fundamental catalyst next week. Pam Bondi is scheduled to appear before a key House committee, and advocates are hopeful that lawmakers will press her for an update on the Justice Department’s progress in carrying out President Trump’s executive order to finalize the federal marijuana rescheduling process. Whether this turns into anything concrete remains to be seen, but markets often move on expectations and headlines. This could very well be the spark that ignites the next rally, especially with the technicals already coiled up the way they are.

Looking beyond MSOS, there are several individual names worth mentioning. TLRY has turned back up and is showing signs that support is holding. I trimmed some shares on Thursday, but I’m still holding roughly 65% of my original position. If I see some follow through on Monday, I’m very open to adding those shares back. The structure looks constructive, and I want to stay flexible.

CURLF, CRLBF, GTBIF, CRON, and TCNNF are all holding their 200-day moving averages, which is encouraging. In particular, I really like what CURLF is doing. The stock is tightly consolidating right on its 200-day, and that kind of tight action after a decline often precedes a meaningful move. The reward to risk ratio is favorable here so I added a little more CURLF today, the risk is well-defined and the setup makes sense within the broader group.

Overall, I’m heading into next week with cautious optimism. The cycles are lining up, support is clearly defined, and we may have a catalyst on deck. Now it’s about letting the market confirm. Everyone have a great weekend and thanks for taking the time to stop by, its appreciated.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

The Ratio Line Gave the Clue Before the Dow Broke Out

 

Using a Ratio Line to Read the Market

Today was a great example of how a simple ratio line can give you a real edge when the market is setting up for a big move. The Dow Jones Industrials went on to make new all-time highs, but the clues were there well before price actually broke out. Above is a 30-minute chart of DIA, and in the lower pane I have a ratio line of DIA versus SPY. This is one of my favorite ways to gauge relative strength in real time, especially during choppy or unclear market conditions.

Point A: Early Hints of Bullishness

At point A, DIA made a new low. On the surface, that looks bearish and is exactly the kind of price action that shakes people out or keeps them on the sidelines. But when I shifted my focus to the ratio line, something important stood out. While price made a lower low, the ratio line did not. It stopped making new lows and began to stabilize.

This is a classic bullish divergence. It was the first hint that DIA was starting to outperform SPY, even as price still looked weak. That said, this alone wasn’t enough for me to take a trade. Divergences can last longer than you expect, and I don’t like jumping in just because I see the first sign of potential strength. At this stage, it simply put DIA on my radar and told me to stay alert.

Points B and C: Strength Beneath the Surface

Things really started to get interesting at points B and C. During this entire period, DIA was going sideways. If you were only watching price, it looked like nothing was happening. No momentum, no breakout, just chop. This is where a lot of traders lose interest or start forcing trades in the wrong direction.

But the ratio line was telling a completely different story. Instead of going sideways, it was in a strong, steady uptrend. That meant DIA was consistently outperforming SPY during this consolidation. Even though price wasn’t moving higher yet, relative strength was building underneath the surface.

This is the kind of action I love to see. When price pauses but the ratio line keeps trending higher, it often means the market is coiling up for a move. Institutions don’t always chase breakouts; they often accumulate during quiet, sideways periods. The ratio line helps expose that accumulation.

The Breakout and Entry Opportunity

Once resistance was finally taken out, the picture became much clearer. Price confirmed what the ratio line had been signaling for a while. That breakout was your opportunity to enter the market with confidence, aligned with both price and relative strength.

Instead of chasing the move after it was obvious, the ratio line allowed you to anticipate it. That’s the real value here. You’re not predicting; you’re simply recognizing strength early and waiting for price to confirm.

Gaining an Edge with the Ratio Line

This was just a great example of how using a ratio line can help you gain an edge. It adds context to price action and helps separate meaningful consolidations from random chop. Today’s rally in the Dow didn’t come out of nowhere, the clues were there if you knew where to look.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

RDW Triggers at a Key Cycle Low

 

Above is a daily chart of RDW with its 52-day cycle plotted, a cycle I talked about just a few days ago. Coming into today, RDW was in the time window where I expected a cyclical low to form. That alone doesn’t mean you blindly buy, but it does mean I’m paying very close attention to price behavior. Today, I finally got what I was looking for, a trigger.

When I’m trading cycles, timing is only half the equation. The other half is confirmation from price. A cycle can say “a low should be forming,” but price still has to agree. In RDW’s case, price stepped up right where it needed to. If this cycle plays out the way it has in the past, the expectation is that RDW should begin trending higher over the coming days and weeks. I’m not calling a straight line move, but I am looking for higher highs and higher lows as the cycle turns up.

Risk management is always front and center for me, and this trade is no different. My protective stop would be placed a few ticks below yesterday’s low. That level makes sense structurally and keeps the risk clearly defined. If I’m wrong, I want to know quickly and get out with minimal damage. One of the biggest advantages of trading cyclical lows is that you can often define risk very tightly while still having meaningful upside if the trade works.

In the next chart, I zoomed in on the daily timeframe to better highlight the area where price held. What stands out immediately is the confluence of support. RDW held a significant support zone that includes the .618 Fibonacci retracement as well as prior highs from earlier in the move. Former resistance turning into support is something I always pay attention to, and when that lines up with a key Fibonacci level, it adds weight to the level.

This is where things start to get interesting. When you combine clear price support with an expected time window for a cyclical low, you get what I consider a high-probability setup. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, nothing ever is but it does mean the odds are stacked in my favor. These are the types of trades I want to take again and again over time.

For now, the work is done. I’ve identified the cycle, waited for price confirmation, defined my risk, and taken the trigger. The next step is patience. Now we let the market do what it’s going to do. Let’s see what next week brings.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

TLRY: A Case Study in Relative Weakness

 I received a few emails today asking why I sold part of my TLRY position, so I figured I’d give a quick update for anyone who’s interested and maybe clear up my thinking a bit. This wasn’t an emotional decision or a sudden change in my overall view of the cannabis space. It was simply a response to what the chart was telling me.

If you look at the 5-minute chart of TLRY above, with MSOS in the lower pane, the relative weakness really stands out. Yesterday, MSOS made a much higher high at point B compared to point A. That’s exactly what you want to see when momentum is improving. Now, if TLRY were acting well, you would expect it to do the same thing at the very least, make a similar higher high. Instead, TLRY did the opposite. At point B, it put in a much lower high. That divergence is classic relative weakness, and it immediately put TLRY on my radar.

That said, noticing relative weakness doesn’t automatically mean I hit the sell button especially on a lower time frame such as a 5 minute. I try not to front-run breakdowns. As long as support is holding, a weak stock can still snap back, especially in a sector that’s prone to sharp reversals. That’s why I didn’t sell anything yesterday, even after spotting the divergence. I wanted to see how price behaved at a key level.

This morning gave me my answer. On the open, TLRY broke short-term support, and that was my signal to act. I sold roughly one-third of my position, not because I think TLRY is “done,” but because the risk/reward shifted. When a stock shows relative weakness and then loses support, I’d rather play some defense than just sit there and hope.

My mindset with this trade is simple and flexible. If daily support holds and TLRY turns back up with improving volume and strength, I can always add those shares right back on. There’s no rule that says once you sell, you can’t buy again. I’d much rather re-enter on confirmation than stubbornly hold through a drawdown just to prove a point.

Looking at the daily chart now, TLRY is once again approaching gap support. This is an important area, and how the stock behaves here will tell us a lot. If buyers step in and defend this zone, the recent weakness could end up being nothing more than noise. If it fails, then selling that partial position will have been the right call.

For now, I’m watching closely and letting the chart do the talking.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

So Much for Four Green Days in a Row

 

Nobody expected MSOS to be green four days in a row, did they?  Of course, it would have been nice to see that kind of follow through, but instead we got a red day that completely wiped out the gains from the prior three sessions. That’s the frustrating part about trading this space, just when things start to feel constructive, the rug can get pulled out quickly. Even so, despite today’s disappointment, I still believe we are on the doorstep of an up cycle.

What bothered me most about today wasn’t just the red close, but the lack of follow-through from yesterday’s late day rally. When you see buyers step in during the final hours, you want to see that momentum carry into the next session. Instead, the market opened weak and never really recovered. That’s not what bulls want to see, especially when sentiment has finally started to shift after weeks of grinding action.

That said, the chart isn’t all bad news. If you look closely, MSOS put in a clean double bottom right at 3.89 to the penny, sitting directly on top of the gap fill area. That level clearly mattered. Buyers showed up there twice, and that tells me there is still demand lurking beneath the surface. For now, that support is intact, and as long as it holds, I’m willing to give this trade some room.

Because of that, I’m choosing to sit tight with what I have in MSOS and let things play out. Not every day needs action, and sometimes the best move is no move at all. Chopping yourself up during noisy sessions usually does more harm than good.

One adjustment I did make, however, was in TLRY. This stock has been showing too much relative weakness for my liking. Yesterday, when MSOS pushed to new highs late in the afternoon, TLRY couldn’t even get off the mat. That was a red flag. Then this morning, when we took out yesterday’s low, I sold one-third of my TLRY position. I’m not married to it. I can always add those shares back if and when I see bullish volume and real strength return.

For now, it’s a waiting game. Support has been defined, risk is clear, and patience is required. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Price Was Quiet, Relative Weakness Was Screaming in QQQ

 

Relative Weakness on Display in QQQ

What a great example of relative weakness in QQQ over yesterday and today. This is one of those moments where viewing the market through the lens of relative strength almost feels like having an X-ray machine. You’re not just seeing price, you’re seeing what’s happening under the surface and in this case, the message was loud and clear well before price finally gave way.

Above is a 10-minute chart of QQQ, and in the lower pane is the relative strength ratio of QQQ vs SPY. On the surface, QQQ didn’t look particularly threatening at first glance. Price was chopping sideways, nothing dramatic, nothing that would necessarily scare you out of a position if you were only watching candles.

But the relative strength line was telling a very different story.

Sideways Price, Weakening Internals

From point A to point B, QQQ price moved sideways. If you were focused solely on price action, you might have concluded that the market was simply digesting recent gains or pausing before another move higher. There was no obvious breakdown, no aggressive selling, and no sense of urgency.

However, the relative strength line was trending lower the entire time.

That’s the key. While price appeared stable, QQQ was quietly underperforming SPY. Capital was rotating away from QQQ, even though price hadn’t yet reflected that weakness. This is exactly why I rely so heavily on relative strength, it reveals what price alone hides.

The Early Warning at Point B

By the time we reached point B, the message became even clearer. The relative strength line had already broken to new lows, signaling confirmed relative weakness. This breakdown happened before QQQ itself broke support.

That’s the beauty of relative strength analysis: it often acts as a leading indicator. It doesn’t wait for the obvious breakdown. It alerts you while price is still lulling traders into a false sense of security.

If you were watching only price, there was no clear reason to expect trouble. But if you were watching relative strength, the warning signs were already flashing.

Price Finally Catches Up

Once support finally broke, QQQ did exactly what the relative strength line had been hinting at all along. The ETF trended lower yesterday and continued lower into today, confirming the earlier signal. What looked like harmless consolidation turned out to be distribution.

This is a textbook example of why I say that looking at price alone isn’t enough. Relative strength adds critical context. It tells you where money is flowing and more importantly, where it’s leaving.

Final Thoughts

This was just a great, clean example of relative weakness in action. Sideways price, deteriorating relative strength, an early breakdown in the ratio, and then price following lower shortly after. When you learn to trust what relative strength is telling you, you stop reacting late and start positioning early.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Is RDW About to Do What It Usually Does Every 52 Days?

 This is now the sixth consecutive day where RDW has closed below its open, and that kind of short-term weakness is exactly what gets my attention. When I see multiple red closes in a row, I don’t automatically think “run away.” More often than not, I start thinking about pullbacks and whether the stock is setting up for a tradable low. In this case, I think RDW is pulling back into an area where a buy entry could start to make sense.

Above is a daily chart of RDW with its 52-day cycle highlighted in green. I want you to really study that chart, because the accuracy of these cyclical lows is hard to ignore. Roughly every 52 trading days, RDW has put in a meaningful low, and those lows have often marked excellent entry points. Cycles don’t need to be perfect to be useful, and in my opinion, this one has shown pretty darn good timing when it comes to identifying downside exhaustion.

I always encourage you to be your own judge when it comes to cycles. Look at the chart closely and decide for yourself if this pattern has merit. For me, the consistency is enough to take it seriously, especially when price action lines up with the timing window. The main reason I’m showing you this cycle is simple: we are now in the time window for another cyclical low if this pattern continues to hold up.

That said, I’m not in a rush to jump in blindly. Time alone isn’t a signal. What I want to see next is evidence that buyers are actually stepping in. That could show up in several ways, relative strength versus the market, a bullish engulfing candle on a lower time frame, or a surge in volume that suggests accumulation. Any of those would tell me that selling pressure is starting to dry up and demand is returning.

From a price perspective, support appears to be coming in around the $9 level. If RDW tests that area and we see a clean bounce, that may be enough for me to get long. I don’t need to catch the exact bottom; I just want confirmation that the low is likely in or very close.

The most important takeaway here is that RDW is currently sitting in a critical time window for a meaningful low. If this 52-day cycle continues to assert itself, the odds start to favor a reversal rather than further downside. Because of that, RDW is firmly on my radar, and I’ll be staying alert for a clear buy signal to present itself.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

TCNNF and the 50-Day Cycle: My Low-Risk, High-Reward Cannabis Setup

 

If you’ve been following my recent posts, you know I’ve been watching the 50-day cycle in MSOS very closely. It’s a cycle I’ve been stalking because it tends to mark some of the most important turning points in the cannabis sector. As I mentioned in my last post, I believe the cyclical low is in, and that has me thinking about how this pattern connects with other big movers in the space. One of the standout names at the end of the day was TCNNF, which happens to be one of my favorite cannabis stocks. I wanted to zoom in and show you how that same 50-day rhythm in MSOS aligns surprisingly well with TCNNF.

Looking at the daily chart of TCNNF, it’s fascinating to see how consistently this cycle nails the lows. Each low is roughly the same distance apart, and that distance just so happens to be about 50 trading days. I’ve been tracking cycles for a while now, and the thing about them is that they repeat at fairly predictable intervals. The actual triggers for the moves, however, aren’t always obvious. Sometimes it’s news, sometimes it’s market sentiment, and sometimes it’s just the invisible hand of the cycle itself nudging prices at the right moment.

The last cyclical low for TCNNF was back in December, and if you remember, that rally was driven by anticipation of President Trump rescheduling cannabis. That event acted as a catalyst, giving life to the pattern and driving the stock higher. This time, I don’t know what the catalyst will be. Will it be Pam Bondi finalizing rescheduling? Some other regulatory announcement? The truth is, my job isn’t to predict headlines, it’s to identify patterns and trade them. Cycles have been described as mysterious forces that trigger events, and I’m just along for the ride, watching as the pieces fall into place.

Now, I have to admit, I could be totally wrong about the timing. Nothing in trading is guaranteed, and cycles aren’t foolproof. But the signals I’m seeing are aligning in a way that suggests this could be a low-risk, high-reward area. For me, TCNNF is at the top of my watchlist right now. The alignment of the 50-day cycle, combined with its history of predictable lows, makes this a stock I’m excited to follow closely. It’s one of those setups where the odds feel stacked in my favor, and even if the market surprises me, the risk remains defined.

Trading isn’t about certainty. it’s about positioning yourself where the probabilities are favorable. That’s exactly what I think I’m seeing with TCNNF right now, and I’m sharing it with all of you because the setup is too interesting to keep to myself.

This article reflects my personal market analysis and is for educational purposes only. For a deeper look with more data, see my post from yesterday on MSOS returning to the 50-day cycle window here

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS: Is the 50-Day Cycle Low In?

 

Today was an interesting day for MSOS for several reasons, and I want to walk through what I was watching and why I think it matters. As you know, just yesterday I wrote about the 50-day cycle that is expected to bottom this week. Going into today, I was already on alert for signs of that low coming in, and I have to say I saw some encouraging evidence both yesterday and again today.

On the left is a 30-minute chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane I’m comparing MSOS versus the SPY. The first thing that immediately stood out to me was how well the 3.95 level held. That area acted like a clear floor of support throughout the session. Every time price dipped into that zone, sellers couldn’t push it any lower. That alone was noteworthy, but what really caught my attention was what the broader market was doing at the same time.

While MSOS was holding firm at support, the SPY was making new intraday lows. Normally, you’d expect MSOS to crack if the market is selling off, but that didn’t happen. Instead, the ratio line in the lower pane began to rise, showing bullish divergence. That’s your first real clue that something has changed. When a stock or ETF refuses to go down while the market is making new lows, it usually means buyers are stepping in and quietly accumulating shares.

Another important detail was volume. The last 30 minutes of trading saw the heaviest volume we’ve seen in weeks. That’s not something I ignore. Heavy volume into the close, especially near support and after a prolonged decline, often signals institutional participation. In my opinion, that volume confirms what the relative strength was already hinting at: demand is starting to show up.

Based on all of this, I believe the 50-day cycle low that we were expecting this week may already be in. Now, nobody knows for sure what will happen next, and I’m the first to admit that. Markets don’t give guarantees. But if I’m right, I think we’ll see MSOS begin to trend higher over the coming weeks.

Looking at the daily chart on the right adds more context. We came very close to filling the gap, which often happens near important lows. Even more important, we broke the downtrend line drawn from the December high. That doesn’t automatically mean straight up from here, but it is a meaningful change in character.

Whether this turns out to be a major low or not remains to be seen. What matters most to me is risk management and protecting capital. At these levels, I believe the reward-to-risk is favorable, which is why I added yesterday and again today to the long position I’ve been holding for quite some time. Now we wait and let the market tell us the rest. Let’s see what happens.

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CGC: Is the Timing Finally Lining Up?

 

CGC… is it time? If you read my last post on MSOS, then you already know that the 50-day cycle is due this week. This is the same cycle I’ve been tracking and trading for a long time now, and when it kicks in, it rarely acts in isolation. Historically, it tends to lift the entire cannabis space, and CGC is no exception. Whether you love the company or hate it, this stock has a track record of moving hard when the timing lines up.

Just look at what CGC did at the last cyclical low back in November. From low to high, the stock doubled. Go back even further to last April and you’ll see a similar story, it doubled again. That’s not a coincidence, and it’s not something I’m ignoring. CGC may not always be a leader, but when the group catches a bid, it has a habit of responding in a big way. That’s exactly why I’m paying attention here.

From a technical standpoint, CGC is sitting in an interesting spot. The stock is currently at the bottom of an ascending channel that began back in March of last year. This channel has defined price action for nearly a year, and today it looks like CGC may finally be starting to bounce off that lower boundary. I’m not calling a confirmed bottom yet, but the location matters. When price is this stretched to the downside and lines up with a cyclical time window, my ears perk up.

What really caught my attention, though, is the ratio line of CGC versus MSOS. That ratio just broke above a downtrend line that has been in place since the spring of last year. Relative strength shifts like that often show up before price makes a meaningful move, not after. To me, that’s another piece of evidence suggesting that downside momentum may be fading and that CGC could be setting up for a turn.

Given that we’re now in the time window for a cyclical low and price is beginning to confirm the possibility of a bottom, I’m watching this very closely. I’m already long CGC, and I’ll be looking to add on a move over 1.20. That level would tell me that buyers are finally stepping in with some conviction.

Some of you may argue that CGC isn’t exactly the best cannabis company out there, and you may be right. But this trade isn’t about fundamentals, it’s about timing. When a rising tide comes in, it usually lifts all boats. If CGC does what it’s done in the past and doubles from here, I certainly won’t complain. From where I’m sitting, the risk-reward looks favorable.

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MSOS Returns to the 50-Day Cycle Window

 

Above is a daily chart of MSOS with its 50-day cycle, a cycle I’ve been writing about consistently for many months now. This isn’t something I just noticed last week or retroactively drew on a chart to make myself look smart. Back on December 6th, I openly wrote that a cyclical low was likely in and that a rally should follow. And to be blunt, that call worked almost perfectly. I nailed the bottom, stepped in right where the risk/reward made sense, and rode the move higher as MSOS ripped off the lows. From an entry standpoint, it was one of my better trades.

Unfortunately, my exit was terrible.

That exit coincided with the day Trump signed the executive order, and I watched a large chunk of unrealized profits evaporate in real time. Anyone who has traded long enough knows that feeling in the pit of your stomach. You do the hard part right, waiting patiently, buying when fear is high, trusting your work and then you fumble the ball on the goal line. It was a painful reminder that having a great entry is only half the battle. The exit matters just as much, if not more. You don’t get paid for being right; you get paid for managing risk and locking in gains.

Fast forward to today, and here we are again approaching another potential opportunity. As you can see on the chart, the next cyclical low is due around February 5th, give or take a few days. Cycles aren’t magic, and they’re certainly not precise to the exact day, but they give you something incredibly valuable: a time window. Instead of guessing blindly, I know that we are entering a period where a bottom should be forming. That alone changes how I think, how I size trades, and how aggressive or patient I’m willing to be.

What continues to impress me is just how accurate this 50-day cycle has been over the past two and a half years. Every cyclical low marked in blue at the bottom of the chart is exactly the same distance apart, yet they line up remarkably well with actual market lows in MSOS. That’s not random. At some point, this cycle will lose its influence, everything works until it doesn’t, but until that happens I’m going to keep trading it because it has earned my respect.

I added to MSOS today and also picked up some TLRY. No, we haven’t received clear confirmation that the cyclical low is officially in yet. I may be early, and I know that. But I did notice some subtle signs of relative strength compared to the broader market’s action today, and that’s often how these turns begin. I’m not swinging for the fences here. I’m positioning myself where the odds start to shift back in my favor, armed with experience, humility from my last exit, and a clear plan for how I want to handle the next move.

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MSOS Prints Its Tightest Range Since Christmas

 

Another quiet day today for MSOS, seriously, was today a holiday or something? Price action was about as sleepy as it gets, but that’s exactly why it caught my attention. Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane you’re not looking at volume. What you’re seeing instead is the daily range for each session. I zoomed in to make it easier to see the recent action, which is why some of the top of the chart got chopped off, but the message is still very clear.

Take a look at today’s bar. The daily range was extremely narrow, in fact, it was the tightest range we’ve seen since Christmas. When ranges compress to this degree, it usually doesn’t last long. Tight ranges tend to precede range expansion, and when that expansion finally comes, it can be fast. This is the kind of environment where I stop being bored and start getting ready.

Structurally, MSOS has now put in what I consider six consecutive lower highs. Yes, I know Friday technically took out Thursday’s high by a single tick, but I was watching it closely in real time, and we never actually saw a bid above Thursday’s high. For me, that still counts as a series of lower highs. That sequence tells me sellers have been able to cap price consistently, even though they haven’t been able to push it meaningfully lower either.

At the same time, MSOS is still holding the daily gap. That’s an important detail. Gaps often act as support on pullbacks, and the fact that we’re holding in this area suggests buyers are still defending it. This is a zone where a bounce can develop, especially if we see volatility start to expand in the right direction.

The way I’m planning to play this is pretty straightforward. I want to see a range expansion to the upside. Ideally, that comes in the form of an opening range breakout or at least early signs of relative strength compared to the broader market. If buyers step in and we start to see momentum build, I’ll be watching closely for price to push above today’s high at 4.09. If that happens with some conviction, I’ll look to grab some more shares for a possible leg higher.

For now, there’s nothing to do but stay patient and stay alert. Quiet days like this often set the stage for bigger moves. The key takeaway here is simple: be ready for range expansion, because MSOS looks like it’s coiling for its next move

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RDW Is Back at a Level That’s Worked Before

 

Well, RDW is once again testing the 13 simple moving average of lows, and this is an area I’ve been paying close attention to. I’ve been using this moving average to successfully trade the last two pullbacks in RDW, so when price comes back to this level, it immediately gets my attention. So far, this average has acted as reliable dynamic support, and now we’re seeing another test to see if it continues to hold.

Today’s high came in at 11.73, which puts 11.75 right on my radar as a potential entry level. A clean move over that price would tell me buyers are stepping back in and that this pullback may be ending. That said, I’m not locked into one specific trigger. How we open tomorrow will matter, and I’ll be watching closely to see whether the stock shows early signs of strength. If I see relative strength compared to the broader market or an uptick in volume, I’d consider an earlier entry. As always, I want the market to confirm my thesis rather than forcing a trade.

One of the more encouraging aspects of this pullback has been the volume profile. Volume has been declining as RDW pulls back, which is exactly what I want to see during a healthy consolidation. Selling pressure appears to be easing rather than accelerating. Today’s volume, in particular, was noticeably lighter than what we’ve seen in recent sessions, and that suggests sellers are becoming less aggressive at these levels.

However, there is one thing that continues to give me pause. Four days ago, RDW printed a very high-volume green candle. That kind of volume stands out, and it often marks an important reference point on the chart. The issue is that we’re currently trading below the low of that candle. When price drops below the low of a high-volume up day, it raises the bar for the next move higher. In order for RDW to push higher from here, I want to see volume really start to pick up again. Without that renewed participation, there’s a risk that any bounce could be short-lived.

For now, I’m staying patient and letting the chart do the talking. The 13 simple moving average of lows is being tested again, volume on the pullback has been constructive, and I have clear levels in mind. If RDW can reclaim momentum with expanding volume, I’ll be interested. If not, there’s no rush. I’d rather miss a trade than step in before the conditions are fully aligned.

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HYPD on Watch as Volume Leads Price

 

HYPD is a stock I currently have on my radar as a potential breakout candidate, and the more I study the chart, the more interested I become. Above is a daily chart of HYPD along with the On Balance Volume indicator, shown in yellow and right away there are several technical clues that suggest this stock may be setting up for a meaningful move.

The first thing that jumps out to me is the double bottom on the daily chart. For my style of trading, this is often one of the earliest signals that a downtrend is losing steam and a possible trend change is developing. After a prolonged move lower, seeing buyers step in twice at roughly the same level tells me that demand is starting to outweigh supply. It doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does put the stock on my watchlist and shifts my focus from looking for shorts to watching for long setups.

Another important piece of the puzzle is the tight sideways range HYPD has been trading in for the past five weeks. Price has been coiling in a relatively narrow band, and in my experience, tight consolidations like this often precede a volatility expansion. The longer and tighter the base, the more meaningful the move can be once price finally breaks out. To me, this looks like a stock that is storing energy rather than distributing shares.

From a price perspective, the key level I’m watching is 4.40. A clean break and hold above that level would mark a breakout from the range and signal that buyers are taking control. What makes this setup especially interesting, however, is what’s already happening under the surface with volume.

The On Balance Volume line has already broken out, even though price itself has not yet done so. OBV is a reflection of volume flow, and the fact that it’s moving higher tells me that accumulation is already taking place. Over the past five trading days, we’ve seen heavier volume come into HYPD, and that buying pressure is being captured by the OBV indicator.

I often view OBV as a leading indicator, and in this case, it appears to be hinting that higher prices could follow once price confirms with a breakout. When volume leads and price follows, that’s a combination I like to see. For now, HYPD remains firmly on my radar, and I’m encouraged by how the technical pieces are lining up. Now it’s simply a matter of letting the chart confirm and seeing how things play out.

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GME Is Finally Starting to Shape Up

 

It was a strong day for GME right from the opening bell, and the stock never really looked back. GME closed up over 8% on the day, and what stood out to me the most was how decisive the move was. This wasn’t a slow grind higher or a late-day squeeze,  buyers were in control early and that strength carried through the close.

Above is a daily chart of GME, and for the first time in a while, it’s finally starting to shape up in a constructive way. A couple of months ago, GME formed a clear double bottom in the $20 area. At the time, it was easy to be skeptical because the stock had already burned a lot of traders earlier in the year. But this is exactly how meaningful bottoms tend to form, quietly with plenty of disbelief along the way. That $20 level held twice, and since then the stock has been working higher in a much more orderly fashion.

What really has my attention now is the volume. Over the past 10 trading days, volume has been steadily increasing as the stock moves higher. That’s exactly what I want to see when a base starts to resolve. Rising price combined with expanding volume tells me this move isn’t just a lack of sellers — it’s actual demand coming in. To me, that adds credibility to the breakout attempt we’re seeing now.

As far as resistance goes, the next key area I’m watching is the $28 level. This is where GME failed back in early October, and it’s an obvious spot where sellers could show up again. Markets have memory, and former failure points often become the next test when momentum builds. Based on the current volume profile and the strength of today’s move, I think that’s exactly where we’re headed next.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but the combination of a confirmed double bottom, improving structure, and rising volume puts the odds in favor of higher prices. For now, GME looks like a stock that’s finally waking up again.

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