Why I Added More CGC Here

 

Today I picked up some more shares of CGC in anticipation of the entire cannabis sector moving higher in the weeks and months ahead. I’ve been watching this group closely, and today’s action in CGC stood out enough for me to add. When I look at the market through a relative strength lens, CGC was clearly the strongest cannabis stock on the day, showing relative strength from the open right into the close.

There are a few key things on this chart that really caught my attention. First, if you look at the daily chart, you’ll notice I’ve marked off a fairly reliable 37-day cycle that has been pulsating through this market for almost a year. What’s impressive is how accurate these cyclical lows have been. Time and again, price has been bottoming right around that window, and I pay close attention when cycles line up as cleanly as this. With today’s rally, I believe we have now confirmed the current cycle low, and it came right on schedule.

Volume also adds to the story. While it wasn’t explosive, we did see a modest increase in volume accompanying today’s green candle. That matters to me because it suggests participation is starting to expand. Even more important, today’s candle produced the largest close greater than-open relationship we’ve seen in the past 14 days. In other words, buyers stayed in control throughout the session and were willing to pay higher prices into the close. That’s often how early turns begin.

Another technical detail that shouldn’t be overlooked is the gap fill at 1.13 last week. Gaps tend to act like unfinished business, and seeing CGC come back and fill that gap before turning higher helps clean up the chart. 

When I put all of these factors together, relative strength versus the rest of the cannabis space, a cycle low arriving right on time, improving volume, a strong bullish candle, and a completed gap fill, it made sense for me to take action. This wasn’t about chasing strength; it was about positioning early as conditions start to improve. That combination is what led to my long entry in CGC, and now I’ll be watching closely to see if the broader cannabis sector and TLRY follow through.

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All Eyes on $10 After TLRY Earnings

Well, TLRY earnings are out and the stock is trading higher in the after-hours, and at least on the surface the numbers give the bulls something to work with. Tilray reported record Q2 net revenue of roughly $218 million, adjusted EBITDA of $8.4 million, and a net loss that improved by 49% to $43.5 million. Just as important, the company has now moved into a net cash position of nearly $30 million. Management also reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance in the $62 to $72 million range, which adds a level of forward visibility that this group has been lacking for a long time.

A big driver of the quarter was international cannabis growth. Global cannabis revenue was up about 36% year over year and 51% sequentially, as Tilray continues to shift supply away from low-priced Canadian wholesale and into higher-margin European markets. Expansion of cultivation capacity, including a strong Cayuga outdoor harvest, clearly helped support that growth. This is the type of transition I like to see moving away from volume for volume’s sake and toward better margins.

The Tilray Pharma and beverage segments also deserve mention. The European pharmacy distribution business just posted its biggest quarter ever at approximately $85 million, and management is planning to triple its German medical cannabis footprint. On the beverage side, the craft beer category continues to face headwinds, but Tilray still managed to deliver $27 million in annualized cost savings and remains on track for its $33 million target under Project 420. That tells me management is at least staying disciplined on the cost front.

Yesterday I talked about my game plan and specifically about waiting to see if TLRY could break $10, and sure enough that was the exact high reached in after-hours trading. We still have roughly 90 minutes left in the after-hours session so anything can happen. Heading into tomorrow, the $10 level will be a key pivot for me after the open. If I see relative strength and increasing volume, that will help guide my decision on whether to add. For me, it really comes down to whether TLRY can finally push through and hold above $10. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

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IWM Sends a Loud Relative Strength Message

 

Today was a big day for IWM, and when you view the market through the lens of relative strength the way I do, the message on this chart was loud and clear. This is exactly the type of action I’m always watching for, because relative strength tends to show itself before the obvious price breakout that everyone else reacts to later.

Above, we have a 5-minute chart of IWM, with the middle pane showing the IWM vs SPY ratio, and the lower pane displaying a 5-minute chart of SPY. Before getting into today’s move, it’s important to first look at what happened yesterday. I’ve circled an area where IWM was essentially moving sideways yesterday. At first glance, that kind of price action might look uninteresting. But when I look at the relative strength line during that same period, it tells a very different story. While price was chopping around, the ratio line was moving sharply higher. That is a textbook sign of accumulation and relative strength. Even though price wasn’t advancing yet, money was clearly rotating into IWM beneath the surface.

Fast forward to today and that relative strength continued to assert itself. While the SPY opened the session making a lower swing low, clearly illustrated by the white trendlines, IWM did the opposite. It put in a higher low. That divergence is critical. When the broader market is weakening on an intraday basis but a stock or ETF refuses to break down and instead holds higher lows, it’s sending a strong message. Buyers are stepping in earlier and with more conviction.

Once resistance was broken, IWM did exactly what strong leaders tend to do. It pushed higher throughout the session and closed near the highs of the day. That type of close tells me there was no urgency to sell and that demand remained strong right into the bell.

If you shift your focus to the daily chart on the right, the bigger picture becomes even clearer. IWM is right on the verge of breaking out to a new closing  high. Compared to QQQ and SPY, IWM is clearly the leader right now. Over the past five trading days, the flow of money has been decisively moving into small caps, and the relative strength confirms it. This is exactly why I rely so heavily on relative strength, it keeps me aligned with where the market is actually going, not where I think it should go.

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Record Volume Puts NVVE on My Radar

 

Today was a big day for NVVE, as the stock surged 59% on record volume. Anytime I see that kind of price move paired with exceptional volume, it immediately gets my attention, especially when there is a clear news catalyst behind it. In this case, the move was driven by an announcement from Nuvve Japan K.K., which reported it has secured the rights to install and operate a grid-scale battery energy storage system in Oyada, Mino City, within Japan’s Gifu Prefecture.

According to the press release, the project will feature a rated output of 2MW with a storage capacity of 8MWh, providing a four-hour duration system. Operations are expected to begin in November 2026. While the project itself is still a ways off from going live, the importance of this news is what it represents. It shows progress, expansion, and tangible execution in a sector that investors are watching closely. That combination of forward-looking growth and confirmation through record volume is what made today’s move stand out to me.

Looking at the daily chart of NVVE, the next key area I’m focused on is the 6.50 to 6.75 zone. This is an important level because it represents the next meaningful area of potential resistance. How the stock behaves as it approaches that zone will tell me a lot about whether today’s move has legs or if it needs time to digest the gains.

As of after-hours trading, NVVE is trading about a dollar higher than the 4:00 close, which shows continued interest beyond the regular session. Even so, I’m not interested in chasing the stock after such a large one-day move. Instead, I’ll be watching closely for pullbacks on Thursday that could offer lower-risk buying opportunities. Strong stocks often provide second chances, and patience usually pays when volume and momentum are this extreme.

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MNTS Fills the Gap, Now Eyes Key Resistance

 Another strong day for MNTS, and this time it came on volume of over 25 million shares, which immediately tells me this move has participation behind it. Above is a daily chart of MNTS, and the first thing that stands out to me is that the stock has now filled its prior gap and has started to back off slightly. That type of action is completely normal. Gap fills are often areas where traders look to sell, lock in profits, or reduce exposure, so seeing some hesitation here is not a negative in my view.

What is notable is how well MNTS has held up despite that expected selling pressure. As of after-hours trading, the stock is trading around 15.70, which is roughly $1.80 higher than the 4:00 close. That kind of strength after the bell suggests there is still strong interest in the name and that buyers are willing to step in even after a big move.

Looking ahead, the most important level on my chart is clearly the $20 area. This is heavy overhead resistance and not a level I expect to be taken out easily. Back in the summer, $20 acted as support, and when that level finally broke, it flipped roles and became resistance. We saw that resistance clearly hold in December, which makes it even more meaningful now.

If MNTS does make a run toward $20, I’ll be paying very close attention to volume. Volume will tell the real story. A push into that level on declining or average volume would suggest sellers are still in control. On the other hand, if price approaches $20 with expanding volume, that would increase the odds of a breakout. For now, MNTS remains strong, but the next test will be whether it can absorb supply at that key level.

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