Thursday, January 8, 2026

All Eyes on $10 After TLRY Earnings


Well, TLRY earnings are out and the stock is trading higher in the after-hours, and at least on the surface the numbers give the bulls something to work with. Tilray reported record Q2 net revenue of roughly $218 million, adjusted EBITDA of $8.4 million, and a net loss that improved by 49% to $43.5 million. Just as important, the company has now moved into a net cash position of nearly $30 million. Management also reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance in the $62 to $72 million range, which adds a level of forward visibility that this group has been lacking for a long time.

A big driver of the quarter was international cannabis growth. Global cannabis revenue was up about 36% year over year and 51% sequentially, as Tilray continues to shift supply away from low-priced Canadian wholesale and into higher-margin European markets. Expansion of cultivation capacity, including a strong Cayuga outdoor harvest, clearly helped support that growth. This is the type of transition I like to see moving away from volume for volume’s sake and toward better margins.

The Tilray Pharma and beverage segments also deserve mention. The European pharmacy distribution business just posted its biggest quarter ever at approximately $85 million, and management is planning to triple its German medical cannabis footprint. On the beverage side, the craft beer category continues to face headwinds, but Tilray still managed to deliver $27 million in annualized cost savings and remains on track for its $33 million target under Project 420. That tells me management is at least staying disciplined on the cost front.

Yesterday I talked about my game plan and specifically about waiting to see if TLRY could break $10, and sure enough that was the exact high reached in after-hours trading. We still have roughly 90 minutes left in the after-hours session so anything can happen. Heading into tomorrow, the $10 level will be a key pivot for me after the open. If I see relative strength and increasing volume, that will help guide my decision on whether to add. For me, it really comes down to whether TLRY can finally push through and hold above $10. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

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