HYPD on Watch as Volume Leads Price

 

HYPD is a stock I currently have on my radar as a potential breakout candidate, and the more I study the chart, the more interested I become. Above is a daily chart of HYPD along with the On Balance Volume indicator, shown in yellow and right away there are several technical clues that suggest this stock may be setting up for a meaningful move.

The first thing that jumps out to me is the double bottom on the daily chart. For my style of trading, this is often one of the earliest signals that a downtrend is losing steam and a possible trend change is developing. After a prolonged move lower, seeing buyers step in twice at roughly the same level tells me that demand is starting to outweigh supply. It doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does put the stock on my watchlist and shifts my focus from looking for shorts to watching for long setups.

Another important piece of the puzzle is the tight sideways range HYPD has been trading in for the past five weeks. Price has been coiling in a relatively narrow band, and in my experience, tight consolidations like this often precede a volatility expansion. The longer and tighter the base, the more meaningful the move can be once price finally breaks out. To me, this looks like a stock that is storing energy rather than distributing shares.

From a price perspective, the key level I’m watching is 4.40. A clean break and hold above that level would mark a breakout from the range and signal that buyers are taking control. What makes this setup especially interesting, however, is what’s already happening under the surface with volume.

The On Balance Volume line has already broken out, even though price itself has not yet done so. OBV is a reflection of volume flow, and the fact that it’s moving higher tells me that accumulation is already taking place. Over the past five trading days, we’ve seen heavier volume come into HYPD, and that buying pressure is being captured by the OBV indicator.

I often view OBV as a leading indicator, and in this case, it appears to be hinting that higher prices could follow once price confirms with a breakout. When volume leads and price follows, that’s a combination I like to see. For now, HYPD remains firmly on my radar, and I’m encouraged by how the technical pieces are lining up. Now it’s simply a matter of letting the chart confirm and seeing how things play out.

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GME Is Finally Starting to Shape Up

 

It was a strong day for GME right from the opening bell, and the stock never really looked back. GME closed up over 8% on the day, and what stood out to me the most was how decisive the move was. This wasn’t a slow grind higher or a late-day squeeze,  buyers were in control early and that strength carried through the close.

Above is a daily chart of GME, and for the first time in a while, it’s finally starting to shape up in a constructive way. A couple of months ago, GME formed a clear double bottom in the $20 area. At the time, it was easy to be skeptical because the stock had already burned a lot of traders earlier in the year. But this is exactly how meaningful bottoms tend to form, quietly with plenty of disbelief along the way. That $20 level held twice, and since then the stock has been working higher in a much more orderly fashion.

What really has my attention now is the volume. Over the past 10 trading days, volume has been steadily increasing as the stock moves higher. That’s exactly what I want to see when a base starts to resolve. Rising price combined with expanding volume tells me this move isn’t just a lack of sellers — it’s actual demand coming in. To me, that adds credibility to the breakout attempt we’re seeing now.

As far as resistance goes, the next key area I’m watching is the $28 level. This is where GME failed back in early October, and it’s an obvious spot where sellers could show up again. Markets have memory, and former failure points often become the next test when momentum builds. Based on the current volume profile and the strength of today’s move, I think that’s exactly where we’re headed next.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but the combination of a confirmed double bottom, improving structure, and rising volume puts the odds in favor of higher prices. For now, GME looks like a stock that’s finally waking up again.

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Holding TLRY Despite the Warnings… Here’s What I Learned

 

As we begin a new month, I can’t help but reflect on some of the trading mistakes I made recently, specifically with TLRY. One of the main tools I use in my trading and investing is relative strength, which is why I’m a little annoyed with myself that I’m still holding most of my shares. I know better than to ignore it, yet here I am.

Above is a daily chart of TLRY, and in the lower pane, I’ve plotted a relative strength line of TLRY versus MSOS. Looking back, there are clear moments where TLRY signaled caution. At point B, TLRY made a lower high compared to point A. If you compare that to a chart of MSOS not shown here, you’d see it made a much higher high. I remember that day vividly. While my P&L for MSOS was setting new highs, my TLRY profit was far below where it had been in October, at point A. That is textbook relative weakness, yet I held on.

Then came the large bearish outside reversal day tied to the executive order signing, followed by follow-through the next day. These were clear warning signals, yet I still held. And even toward the end of January, when TLRY broke down out of its consolidation and filled the gap, I continued holding. I kept asking myself, how many more bearish signals do I need to see before I act on them?

By ignoring these relative weakness signals, I now find myself holding TLRY while its ratio line is teetering on the edge of new lows. I'm still up on the trade, but it’s rapidly becoming one of my worst-performing holdings. The lesson is painfully clear: I should have at least lightened up on my position when the early warnings appeared, with the mindset that I could always get back in if the trend reversed.

This experience is a perfect reminder of an old saying I often quote: “Trade what you see, not what you think.” TLRY embodies exactly why that rule exists. It’s easy to get attached to a position when you’re up on paper or when you believe in the long-term story, but the market doesn’t care about your thesis. It only reacts to price and relative strength.

Reflecting on this trade, I can see clearly where I went wrong, and I’m committed to letting the signals drive my decisions moving forward. TLRY may still have upside, but right now it is a stark example of what happens when you ignore what the charts are telling you. Going forward, I will act more decisively on relative weakness, even if it means taking partial losses. TLRY has taught me an invaluable lesson about patience, discipline, and respecting the market over my own bias.

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Bitcoin Is Weak — RIOT Doesn’t Care

 

If you’ve read my most recent post on Bitcoin, you know I’ve been bearish for quite some time, and that hasn’t changed. Longer-term cycles still suggest lower prices ahead. That said, markets don’t move in straight lines, and based on a shorter-term cycle, there is reason to believe we could see a short-term bounce develop. I have no interest in buying Bitcoin itself, but there is a Bitcoin-related stock that’s starting to get my attention and that stock is RIOT.

Above is a daily chart of RIOT, and in the lower pane I have GBTC for comparison. I like using GBTC as a proxy for Bitcoin because it removes some of the noise and lets me focus on relative performance. Right away, one thing stands out. At point B, GBTC is making new lows relative to point A. Bitcoin, at least through this lens is clearly weaker. RIOT, on the other hand, is telling a very different story.

While GBTC pushed to fresh lows, RIOT held well above its prior low and actually formed a much higher low. That’s classic relative strength. It tells me that despite continued weakness in Bitcoin, buyers are stepping into RIOT earlier and with more conviction. When you see a stock refuse to make new lows while its underlying asset is still sliding, that’s worth paying attention to.

Now, seeing relative strength does not mean I’m rushing out to buy this at the open. Nothing could be further from the truth. Relative strength simply puts a stock on my radar. From there, I let price action do the talking. For me to get involved on the long side, I would need to see clear resistance levels taken out or strong intraday relative strength develop over the coming week. I want confirmation that buyers are willing to press their advantage, not just defend support.

If RIOT fails to do that, I’ll happily do nothing. That’s an outcome I’m perfectly comfortable with. I don’t feel the need to force trades, especially when my broader view on Bitcoin remains bearish. At this point, RIOT is simply a watchlist stock, nothing more.

However, if Bitcoin does manage to rally over the short term, RIOT has positioned itself as a potential leader. That’s the type of stock I want to be focused on, one that shows strength before the move, not after it’s already underway. For now, it’s a waiting game. Let’s see what unfolds in the coming days.

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This LUNR Setup Has Worked Before… Here We Are Again

 

Above is a 60-minute chart of LUNR, and in the lower pane I have a 14-bar stochastics indicator. I’ll be the first to admit I’m not a big fan of oscillators in general. Most of the time they create more noise than clarity. That said, when an oscillator is clearly synced with the dominant cycle of a stock, the signals tend to be far more reliable. In this case, LUNR’s stochastics has done a pretty good job of identifying meaningful short-term lows.

If you look back on this chart, there have been four separate occasions where the stochastics pushed below the buy line and then turned back up. Each time, that turn coincided with a significant bottom and led to a solid rally. Those weren’t minor bounces either, they were tradable moves. That’s why I’m paying attention now, because once again the oscillator is sitting down in the buy zone.

What really adds weight to this setup for me is the price action itself. LUNR is currently sitting at the lower end of a clearly defined price channel, which appears to be providing support around the $18.50 level. I like when multiple tools point to the same area. The channel alone gives me a level to work with, but when you combine that with an oscillator that has historically marked good entry points, the odds start to tilt in your favor.

That said, I’m not interested in blindly buying just because we’re at support and the oscillator is oversold. The way I plan to approach this is simple: I want to see $18.50 hold, followed by the stochastics crossing back above the buy-zone level. That turn is my signal that momentum may be shifting back to the upside.

One very important caveat here is relative strength. I do not want to see relative weakness at these levels. If the broader market is moving higher and LUNR can’t participate or worse if it breaks cleanly below $18.50, then all bets are off. In that scenario, I’m not interested in buying. Support failing while the market is strong is a big red flag.

For now, this is a stock on my watchlist, not in my portfolio. If the pieces line up, it could offer another solid opportunity. If they don’t, I’m perfectly fine standing aside.

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