MSOS Prints Its Tightest Range Since Christmas

 

Another quiet day today for MSOS, seriously, was today a holiday or something? Price action was about as sleepy as it gets, but that’s exactly why it caught my attention. Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane you’re not looking at volume. What you’re seeing instead is the daily range for each session. I zoomed in to make it easier to see the recent action, which is why some of the top of the chart got chopped off, but the message is still very clear.

Take a look at today’s bar. The daily range was extremely narrow, in fact, it was the tightest range we’ve seen since Christmas. When ranges compress to this degree, it usually doesn’t last long. Tight ranges tend to precede range expansion, and when that expansion finally comes, it can be fast. This is the kind of environment where I stop being bored and start getting ready.

Structurally, MSOS has now put in what I consider six consecutive lower highs. Yes, I know Friday technically took out Thursday’s high by a single tick, but I was watching it closely in real time, and we never actually saw a bid above Thursday’s high. For me, that still counts as a series of lower highs. That sequence tells me sellers have been able to cap price consistently, even though they haven’t been able to push it meaningfully lower either.

At the same time, MSOS is still holding the daily gap. That’s an important detail. Gaps often act as support on pullbacks, and the fact that we’re holding in this area suggests buyers are still defending it. This is a zone where a bounce can develop, especially if we see volatility start to expand in the right direction.

The way I’m planning to play this is pretty straightforward. I want to see a range expansion to the upside. Ideally, that comes in the form of an opening range breakout or at least early signs of relative strength compared to the broader market. If buyers step in and we start to see momentum build, I’ll be watching closely for price to push above today’s high at 4.09. If that happens with some conviction, I’ll look to grab some more shares for a possible leg higher.

For now, there’s nothing to do but stay patient and stay alert. Quiet days like this often set the stage for bigger moves. The key takeaway here is simple: be ready for range expansion, because MSOS looks like it’s coiling for its next move

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RDW Is Back at a Level That’s Worked Before

 

Well, RDW is once again testing the 13 simple moving average of lows, and this is an area I’ve been paying close attention to. I’ve been using this moving average to successfully trade the last two pullbacks in RDW, so when price comes back to this level, it immediately gets my attention. So far, this average has acted as reliable dynamic support, and now we’re seeing another test to see if it continues to hold.

Today’s high came in at 11.73, which puts 11.75 right on my radar as a potential entry level. A clean move over that price would tell me buyers are stepping back in and that this pullback may be ending. That said, I’m not locked into one specific trigger. How we open tomorrow will matter, and I’ll be watching closely to see whether the stock shows early signs of strength. If I see relative strength compared to the broader market or an uptick in volume, I’d consider an earlier entry. As always, I want the market to confirm my thesis rather than forcing a trade.

One of the more encouraging aspects of this pullback has been the volume profile. Volume has been declining as RDW pulls back, which is exactly what I want to see during a healthy consolidation. Selling pressure appears to be easing rather than accelerating. Today’s volume, in particular, was noticeably lighter than what we’ve seen in recent sessions, and that suggests sellers are becoming less aggressive at these levels.

However, there is one thing that continues to give me pause. Four days ago, RDW printed a very high-volume green candle. That kind of volume stands out, and it often marks an important reference point on the chart. The issue is that we’re currently trading below the low of that candle. When price drops below the low of a high-volume up day, it raises the bar for the next move higher. In order for RDW to push higher from here, I want to see volume really start to pick up again. Without that renewed participation, there’s a risk that any bounce could be short-lived.

For now, I’m staying patient and letting the chart do the talking. The 13 simple moving average of lows is being tested again, volume on the pullback has been constructive, and I have clear levels in mind. If RDW can reclaim momentum with expanding volume, I’ll be interested. If not, there’s no rush. I’d rather miss a trade than step in before the conditions are fully aligned.

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HYPD on Watch as Volume Leads Price

 

HYPD is a stock I currently have on my radar as a potential breakout candidate, and the more I study the chart, the more interested I become. Above is a daily chart of HYPD along with the On Balance Volume indicator, shown in yellow and right away there are several technical clues that suggest this stock may be setting up for a meaningful move.

The first thing that jumps out to me is the double bottom on the daily chart. For my style of trading, this is often one of the earliest signals that a downtrend is losing steam and a possible trend change is developing. After a prolonged move lower, seeing buyers step in twice at roughly the same level tells me that demand is starting to outweigh supply. It doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does put the stock on my watchlist and shifts my focus from looking for shorts to watching for long setups.

Another important piece of the puzzle is the tight sideways range HYPD has been trading in for the past five weeks. Price has been coiling in a relatively narrow band, and in my experience, tight consolidations like this often precede a volatility expansion. The longer and tighter the base, the more meaningful the move can be once price finally breaks out. To me, this looks like a stock that is storing energy rather than distributing shares.

From a price perspective, the key level I’m watching is 4.40. A clean break and hold above that level would mark a breakout from the range and signal that buyers are taking control. What makes this setup especially interesting, however, is what’s already happening under the surface with volume.

The On Balance Volume line has already broken out, even though price itself has not yet done so. OBV is a reflection of volume flow, and the fact that it’s moving higher tells me that accumulation is already taking place. Over the past five trading days, we’ve seen heavier volume come into HYPD, and that buying pressure is being captured by the OBV indicator.

I often view OBV as a leading indicator, and in this case, it appears to be hinting that higher prices could follow once price confirms with a breakout. When volume leads and price follows, that’s a combination I like to see. For now, HYPD remains firmly on my radar, and I’m encouraged by how the technical pieces are lining up. Now it’s simply a matter of letting the chart confirm and seeing how things play out.

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GME Is Finally Starting to Shape Up

 

It was a strong day for GME right from the opening bell, and the stock never really looked back. GME closed up over 8% on the day, and what stood out to me the most was how decisive the move was. This wasn’t a slow grind higher or a late-day squeeze,  buyers were in control early and that strength carried through the close.

Above is a daily chart of GME, and for the first time in a while, it’s finally starting to shape up in a constructive way. A couple of months ago, GME formed a clear double bottom in the $20 area. At the time, it was easy to be skeptical because the stock had already burned a lot of traders earlier in the year. But this is exactly how meaningful bottoms tend to form, quietly with plenty of disbelief along the way. That $20 level held twice, and since then the stock has been working higher in a much more orderly fashion.

What really has my attention now is the volume. Over the past 10 trading days, volume has been steadily increasing as the stock moves higher. That’s exactly what I want to see when a base starts to resolve. Rising price combined with expanding volume tells me this move isn’t just a lack of sellers — it’s actual demand coming in. To me, that adds credibility to the breakout attempt we’re seeing now.

As far as resistance goes, the next key area I’m watching is the $28 level. This is where GME failed back in early October, and it’s an obvious spot where sellers could show up again. Markets have memory, and former failure points often become the next test when momentum builds. Based on the current volume profile and the strength of today’s move, I think that’s exactly where we’re headed next.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but the combination of a confirmed double bottom, improving structure, and rising volume puts the odds in favor of higher prices. For now, GME looks like a stock that’s finally waking up again.

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Holding TLRY Despite the Warnings… Here’s What I Learned

 

As we begin a new month, I can’t help but reflect on some of the trading mistakes I made recently, specifically with TLRY. One of the main tools I use in my trading and investing is relative strength, which is why I’m a little annoyed with myself that I’m still holding most of my shares. I know better than to ignore it, yet here I am.

Above is a daily chart of TLRY, and in the lower pane, I’ve plotted a relative strength line of TLRY versus MSOS. Looking back, there are clear moments where TLRY signaled caution. At point B, TLRY made a lower high compared to point A. If you compare that to a chart of MSOS not shown here, you’d see it made a much higher high. I remember that day vividly. While my P&L for MSOS was setting new highs, my TLRY profit was far below where it had been in October, at point A. That is textbook relative weakness, yet I held on.

Then came the large bearish outside reversal day tied to the executive order signing, followed by follow-through the next day. These were clear warning signals, yet I still held. And even toward the end of January, when TLRY broke down out of its consolidation and filled the gap, I continued holding. I kept asking myself, how many more bearish signals do I need to see before I act on them?

By ignoring these relative weakness signals, I now find myself holding TLRY while its ratio line is teetering on the edge of new lows. I'm still up on the trade, but it’s rapidly becoming one of my worst-performing holdings. The lesson is painfully clear: I should have at least lightened up on my position when the early warnings appeared, with the mindset that I could always get back in if the trend reversed.

This experience is a perfect reminder of an old saying I often quote: “Trade what you see, not what you think.” TLRY embodies exactly why that rule exists. It’s easy to get attached to a position when you’re up on paper or when you believe in the long-term story, but the market doesn’t care about your thesis. It only reacts to price and relative strength.

Reflecting on this trade, I can see clearly where I went wrong, and I’m committed to letting the signals drive my decisions moving forward. TLRY may still have upside, but right now it is a stark example of what happens when you ignore what the charts are telling you. Going forward, I will act more decisively on relative weakness, even if it means taking partial losses. TLRY has taught me an invaluable lesson about patience, discipline, and respecting the market over my own bias.

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