INTC Starting to Act Like a Leader

 

Above is a daily chart of INTC, and in the lower pane I’m using SPY for comparison. One of the things I’m always looking for is relative strength, especially during periods when the broader market is under pressure, and I think INTC has been showing a very clear example of that.

If you look closely from point A to point B, the contrast between INTC and SPY really stands out. SPY went on to make a much lower low at point B, which tells you the overall market was still getting hit pretty hard. But while the market was falling apart, INTC held up much better and actually made a considerably higher low at point B. To me, that is exactly the kind of price action that deserves attention.

This is one of the classic signs of relative strength. When the market gets hammered but a stock refuses to break down with it, that usually means there is underlying demand supporting the name. In other words, buyers are stepping in sooner and with more confidence than they are in the broader market. That doesn’t always lead to an immediate breakout, but it often gives me an early clue about where money may be quietly rotating.

What I like about this setup is that the relative strength isn’t just subtle, it’s pretty obvious on the chart. INTC didn’t just survive the market weakness; it absorbed it and then began to stabilize in a constructive way. When I see that kind of action, I start thinking less about what the market is doing in the moment and more about what the stock may do once market pressure starts to ease.

Another bullish development is that INTC has now broken out above its trendline. That alone gets my attention, but what really adds conviction for me is the way it happened. The stock pushed through that area with three large consecutive green candles, which is not the kind of action I like to ignore. Strong candles in succession often signal urgency from buyers, and when they appear after a period of relative strength, I view that as an important shift in character.

I’m also encouraged by the fact that INTC is not acting strong in isolation. Several other semiconductor names have been showing relative strength as well, and that kind of group behavior matters. When I see multiple stocks in the same sector starting to outperform together, it often suggests that institutional money is moving into that space. Sector confirmation can go a long way in supporting an individual setup.

At this point, I think INTC is in a favorable position technically. It has held up better than the broader market, it has broken trendline resistance with authority, and it’s doing so alongside strength in other semiconductors. For those reasons, I expect higher prices in the weeks ahead and will be watching to see if this momentum continues to build.

NFLX Showing Relative Strength Ahead of a Potential Breakout

 

Over the past several weeks, NFLX has really caught my attention, and I think it’s setting up in a way that traders should be paying close attention to. On the daily chart above, I’m looking at a stock that has been acting far better than much of the broader market, and that kind of behavior is always worth noting. In the lower pane, I’m using a ratio line of NFLX versus SPY, and that comparison is telling an important story.

Back in late February, NFLX had a powerful gap higher, and since then it has been working through a consolidation phase. That kind of price action is often constructive because rather than immediately giving back the move, the stock has been digesting gains in an orderly fashion. To me, that suggests institutions may still be involved and that the stock is being accumulated rather than distributed. When a stock gaps up and then holds the bulk of that move, I always see that as something potentially bullish.

What stands out even more is what happened two weeks ago. NFLX pulled back and tested the beginning of that gap area, which is a spot I would expect to matter technically. Instead of falling apart, buyers stepped in and defended the level. That support tells me demand is still present, and it reinforces the idea that the gap wasn’t just a one day event. It now looks more like a meaningful reference point on the chart.

The real reason I’m interested here, though, is the relative strength. While the overall market has had its ups and downs (mostly down), NFLX has continued to show leadership. In the bottom pane, the ratio line is doing something I pay very close attention to: it has already broken out to a new swing high ahead of price itself. That’s a pattern I respect because the ratio line often acts like a leading indicator. When relative strength improves before price actually clears resistance, it can be an early clue that a breakout may be coming.

In my experience, when I see a stock outperforming quietly beneath the surface while price is still consolidating, it often means the stock is preparing for its next leg higher. That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course, but it definitely puts the name on my radar.

From here, I’ll be watching closely for a breakout over the $100.19 high. That level is the trigger that would tell me price is finally ready to confirm what the ratio line has already been hinting at. If NFLX can clear that area with conviction, I think there’s a reasonable path toward the $110 zone. As long as relative strength continues to lead, I’ll stay constructive on the setup.

MSOS Setting Up at Major Support as MACD Turns Bullish

This past week was very interesting for the cannabis stocks, and I want to point out a few things that really stood out to me on the chart. Above is a daily chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane is the MACD indicator. When I look at a setup like this, I’m not just looking for random movement or trying to force a bullish opinion. I want to see whether price is reacting at a meaningful level and whether momentum is beginning to confirm that reaction. Right now, I think that’s exactly what may be taking place.

The first thing that immediately jumps out to me is the major support and resistance zone between $3.00 and $3.35. This is not just some arbitrary line drawn on the chart. This is an area where the market has repeatedly shown us that buyers and sellers care. If you look back, you can see that this zone has acted as both support and resistance numerous times in the past. Every time price has entered this area, the market has responded with a significant move. That is the type of level I pay very close attention to because repeated reactions at the same zone usually mean there is real supply and demand there.

When a level is tested many times and the market continues to react from it, I take notice. That tells me the level has memory. It tells me traders are seeing the same thing, and that’s important because the more eyes on a level, the more meaningful it often becomes. Right now, MSOS appears to be bouncing from that exact support zone, and that immediately puts it on my radar.

The second thing I want to point out is what is happening in the lower pane with the MACD. At point D, the MACD has just now crossed to the upside, giving what many traders would consider a bullish buy signal. On its own, that doesn’t mean much to me. I’ve said many times that I do not rely on indicators by themselves. In fact, a MACD cross in the middle of nowhere is something I usually ignore. But when momentum starts to turn at a major level of support, that gets my attention.

What makes this especially interesting is that we’ve seen this exact behavior before. Every time the MACD was below the zero line and then gave a bullish crossover to the upside, the market rallied significantly afterward. You can see this at points A, B, and C, and now once again at point D. That type of repetition is important because it shows a pattern that has been respected multiple times before.

Take a closer look at point B. The MACD gave a bullish signal while price was holding support, and what followed was a very strong move higher. Then look at point C. Once again, the MACD crossed bullishly at an established support area, and the result was another explosive move to the upside. Those are the types of setups I want to see because they combine price structure with momentum confirmation.

And that’s really the key here. MACD signals by themselves mean very little to me unless they are combined with other tools. I want to see alignment. I want support and resistance, relative strength, volume, and momentum all working together. When multiple factors start lining up at the same time, that’s when I begin to pay closer attention because those are often the setups that can lead to meaningful moves.

Now at point D, we once again have a bullish MACD crossover occurring right at this same important support zone. That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course, but it does suggest that momentum may be starting to shift in favor of the bulls. If that’s the case, then I think higher prices are likely, especially if MSOS can reclaim and close back above $4.00. That would be an important sign that buyers are regaining control and that this bounce has real follow-through behind it.

For now, I think this is a chart worth watching very closely. We have a major level, we have momentum beginning to confirm it, and we have prior examples on the chart showing how powerful these setups can become. Now we wait and see how things unfold.

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Cannabis Stocks Finally Show a Pulse

 

It’s been a while since I last posted about the cannabis stocks and honestly, there has not been much reason to. For most of the month, the group has done very little. Price action has been choppy, directionless, and mostly drifting sideways to lower. That kind of environment usually keeps me on the sidelines because there is no edge in forcing trades when the sector is not showing any real leadership. Today, though, the action finally caught my attention, and I wanted to share what I’m seeing.

What stood out to me was the intraday behavior in MSOS compared to the broader market. On the 5-minute chart, while the S&P 500 was pressing to new lows for the day around 12:30, MSOS was not following it lower. Instead, it was holding up extremely well and consolidating near the highs of the morning. That immediately got my attention because when a sector refuses to break down while the market is weak, I view that as a sign that something may be changing beneath the surface. To me, that kind of divergence is often an early clue that relative strength is starting to emerge.

As the day developed, that interpretation only became more convincing. MSOS continued to hold its ground, and once resistance was cleared, buyers stepped in aggressively and pushed the ETF higher for the rest of the afternoon. That type of move suggests to me that money was entering the space, not just random short covering or noise. When I see a stock or sector absorb market weakness, tighten up near the highs, and then expand upward once resistance gives way, I pay attention. That is the kind of action that can sometimes mark the beginning of a change in character.

Looking at the daily chart adds even more context. MSOS now appears to have the potential to form a double bottom at 3.53. Of course, that setup is not confirmed yet. For me, confirmation would come with a decisive move through resistance at 4.14. Until that level is taken out, it remains only a possibility. Still, the setup is there, and that alone makes the chart more interesting than it has been in quite some time.

Another thing worth highlighting is volume. Today, MSOX posted its highest daily volume candle of the year. That matters to me because volume is one of the clearest ways to judge conviction. When I combine relative strength with unusually heavy volume, I see that as evidence that money may be rotating into the group.

That said, one good day is not enough. Now I want to see follow through tomorrow. Without that, this could easily turn into another false start, which this sector has delivered plenty of before. Still, I have to admit that today’s action was encouraging, and I’ll be watching closely to see how the rest of the week unfolds.

CURLF Holds the Line: Cycle Timing, 200-Day Support, and Early Signs of Leadership

 

So far, the analysis I wrote about ten days ago for CURLF has been spot on, so I want to walk through it again with an update and explain why this area continues to matter. Above is the daily chart of CURLF, and in the lower pane is MSOS, which gives important context for what’s happening under the surface.

On February 9th, I pointed out that CURLF was sitting right on its 200-day moving average. That level isn’t magic, but it does tend to matter, especially in beaten-down groups where institutions are looking for a place to step back in. My thinking at the time was simple: if this stock was going to stabilize anywhere, this was the logical spot. So far, that view has held up. Over the past ten days, the 200-day moving average has acted as support, with price probing it but not decisively breaking below.

What made that test even more compelling was the timing. This move down into the 200-day coincided almost perfectly with the 50-day cycle I had written about. Cycles don’t give exact turning points, but they do define time windows where reversals are more likely. In this case, I said this window was ideal for a cyclical low to form. When price, time, and support line up, that’s usually when I start paying much closer attention.

Fast forward to today’s action, and it looks like we’re finally getting confirmation that a low may be in place. Confirmation doesn’t mean certainty, nothing in markets ever does but the character of the price action is starting to change. Selling pressure appears to be drying up, and buyers are becoming more visible. That’s often how meaningful lows form, not with fireworks at first, but with quiet absorption.

One of the most important tells, in my view, comes from the relative strength comparison with MSOS in the lower pane. From point A to point B, MSOS made a lower low. CURLF did not. Instead, CURLF put in a higher low. That divergence is classic relative strength. When the broader group makes a new low but a leading stock refuses to confirm it, that’s usually a sign that stronger hands are accumulating shares.

This is exactly the kind of behavior I look for when trying to identify potential leaders early. CURLF isn’t outperforming by accident here. Buyers were clearly willing to step in sooner and more aggressively than they were in the ETF. That doesn’t guarantee higher prices, but it does tilt the odds in favor of a constructive outcome.

I want to be clear: I’m not claiming this is “the” bottom or that price can’t revisit these levels. Markets rarely move in straight lines. But when I step back and look at the full picture, the 200-day moving average holding, the cycle window lining up, and the relative strength versus MSOS,  I have to respect what the chart is telling me.

One can never be sure what will happen next, but so far, I like what I’m seeing.

You can read my original commentary regarding CURLF and its 50 day cycle here.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage