Above is a weekly chart of AAPL, and in the lower pane, I’ve added a histogram showing the difference between each week’s close and its open. Over the past 15 months, I’ve noticed an interesting pattern that I want to share with you. Whenever AAPL closes the week $11 or more away from its weekly open, the stock has a tendency to rally the following week. Put another way, if Friday’s close is $11 lower than Monday’s open, buying at the next Monday’s open and holding through Friday has historically resulted in a positive return.
Looking back, this scenario has occurred seven times in the past 15 months, and each time the stock rallied the following week. I find it fascinating because it provides a simple, mechanical edge that doesn’t rely on guesswork or market timing. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the markets, but having a repeated pattern like this can help guide trading decisions and improve probabilities.
That said, AAPL has been showing relative weakness versus the broader market lately, so it will be particularly interesting to see if this pattern holds. Sometimes even historically reliable patterns can fail when the underlying trend of the stock is weak compared to the market, which is why I like to watch relative strength alongside price-based patterns.
For me, these kinds of observations are exactly what makes trading exciting. Patterns, edges, and setups like this give structure to the otherwise chaotic world of stocks. I’ll be closely watching AAPL in the coming week to see if history repeats itself and whether a clear setup emerges based on this weekly close/open pattern.
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