TLRY May Be Turning the Corner as Seasonality and Price Action Line Up

 

As many of you know, I’ve been stalking TLRY and the rest of the cannabis space for an opportunity to add to my position, and after Friday’s action I think TLRY may finally be starting to turn the corner. I’ve been patient with this group, waiting for price to tell me when the risk starts to shift back to the upside, and we may be getting that signal now.

If you look at the daily chart of TLRY on the left, you’ll see that price appears to be bouncing right off the gap I’ve outlined on the chart. That area has acted as a reference point for me, and seeing buyers step in there is encouraging. On Friday we also saw a slight expansion in volatility along with a modest uptick in volume. It wasn’t anything dramatic, but it was enough to suggest that selling pressure may be easing and buyers are beginning to show some interest.

Turning to the weekly chart on the right, there’s a pattern that continues to stand out. TLRY has a tendency to pull back for roughly two weeks before making its next push higher, and that rhythm seems to be playing out once again. Last week’s range contraction makes sense as well, especially with the holiday shortened trading week. Quiet weeks like that often set the stage for a more active move to follow.

What I’m watching closely now is how TLRY behaves this week. Ideally, I’d like to see the stock take out last week’s high at 9.85, and I’d want to see that happen with expanding range and increasing volume. That would go a long way toward confirming that momentum is shifting.

Seasonality is also worth keeping in mind. Historically, cannabis stocks tend to perform well during January and February, which adds another supportive layer to this setup. Now it’s simply a matter of staying patient and seeing how things unfold from here.