CURLF Holds Breakout While Maintaining Leadership in Cannabis

 

Above is a daily chart of CURLF, with the lower pane displaying the relative strength ratio of CURLF versus MSOS, and the technical picture is starting to look increasingly constructive. On Friday, CURLF broke out decisively on very heavy volume, a clear sign that big money interest may be returning to the name. Breakouts that occur on expanding volume tend to be more reliable, as they suggest real demand rather than a fleeting short-covering move or retail driven pop.

Following that strong breakout day, today’s action formed an inside day. Rather than being a negative, this is often exactly what you want to see after a powerful move. Price paused, consolidated the gains, and most importantly held above the breakout level. This type of tight consolidation indicates that sellers are not aggressively pressing their bets, while buyers appear comfortable holding their positions. In other words, the market is digesting the prior move instead of immediately giving it back.

The lower pane adds an important layer of confirmation. The CURLF versus MSOS ratio line remains in a clear uptrend, even through the recent pullback in the broader cannabis space. That relative strength is critical. It tells us that CURLF has been outperforming the sector ETF, which is exactly the behavior you want to see when trying to identify potential leaders. Strong stocks tend to stay strong on a relative basis, even when the group temporarily cools off.

Today, the ratio line turned higher once again, reinforcing the idea that CURLF continues to attract incremental capital compared to its peers. For me, that is further evidence that this stock is positioning itself as one of the leaders within the cannabis space rather than just another name moving in sympathy with headlines.

From a tactical standpoint, the level to watch is the high of the “mother candle” from Friday, which comes in at 4.04. A decisive move back above that level could trigger another breakout and potentially mark the start of a new leg higher. Until then, the current price action suggests constructive consolidation rather than distribution.

While cannabis traders will understandably remain on alert for any new headlines regarding rescheduling, it’s always an advantage to do the work in advance. Knowing which stocks are already showing leadership allows you to react decisively if the sector starts to run. CURLF, based on both price and relative strength, is firmly on that list.

Always One Stop Away: The Cannabis Catalyst and the Waiting Game

 

Expectations were high heading into today after CNBC reported Friday that President Trump was expected to move forward with rescheduling cannabis. That announcement never came. Markets, which had been pricing in near-term clarity, were left in limbo once again.

However, the story didn’t end there.

When asked directly by a reporter about marijuana rescheduling, Trump made it clear the issue is still very much on the table. His response was emphatic: “We’re looking at reclassifying marijuana VERY STRONGLY, it unlocks MASSIVE medical research!” While no timeline was provided, the language itself was notable. This wasn’t a dismissal or a delay framed as uncertainty. It was a reaffirmation of intent.

That distinction matters for investors.

Cannabis stocks have spent years trading in a fog of regulatory ambiguity, reacting violently to headlines while drifting lower in between. Today’s non-event reinforces a familiar pattern,  expectations run ahead of policy, followed by frustration when reality doesn’t immediately catch up. Yet the underlying thesis hasn’t changed. Rescheduling remains widely expected, the only real question is timing.

Some believe it could still happen this week. Others are looking toward year-end as a more realistic window. Until then, price action will continue to reflect that tension between hope and patience.

From a market perspective, these pauses often matter less than the broader trend. Big moves in heavily shorted, sentiment-driven sectors rarely begin with perfect clarity. They begin with uncertainty, skepticism, and repeated false starts. When the policy finally arrives, the market response is rarely subtle.

For now, cannabis investors remain in wait-and-see mode, watching headlines closely, but understanding that the eventual catalyst is likely a matter of when, not if.

BEAT Breaks 9-Month Range on Record Volume: Key Levels to Watch This Week

 

Above on the left is a weekly chart of BEAT, and one thing immediately jumps off the page. Last week we closed above a nine-month trading range, and that breakout came on record volume. When a stock spends that much time consolidating and then finally resolves higher with volume, I pay attention. Volume is the tell. It suggests real participation, not just a random price pop.

What I like even more is what’s happening on the daily chart on the right. After the initial gap higher, BEAT hasn’t rushed to give back those gains. Instead, price has tightened up and printed an inside day, which tells me sellers aren’t in control here. In fact, this kind of price action often reflects digestion rather than distribution. The stock is taking a breather, not rolling over.

From a tactical standpoint, the level I’m watching is very clear. If BEAT can curl higher and take out the high of the mother candle at 2.82, that could be the trigger that brings in the next wave of momentum. Inside day breakouts following higher-timeframe range breaks are often where some of the cleanest moves begin.

For now, I’m not chasing anything. I’m simply watching how price behaves as it coils near these levels. Strength that holds after a breakout is often a sign of more strength ahead. BEAT has put itself on my radar, and it will be one of my top stocks to watch this week.

NVDA Is Showing Relative Weakness vs SPY as the Ratio Line Breaks Down

 NVDA Is Flashing Relative Weakness Before Price Confirms

Above is a daily chart of NVDA, and in the lower pane is a ratio chart of NVDA versus the SPY. I rely heavily on ratio charts because they tell me how a stock is behaving relative to the market, not just in isolation. Right now, that message from NVDA is hard to ignore.

The ratio line is clearly sloping downward, which tells me NVDA is lagging the broader market. While the SPY has been holding up, NVDA has been quietly underperforming. This kind of relative weakness often shows up before the price chart breaks down  and that’s exactly what we’re seeing here.

Relative Weakness Is Leading Price

What really stands out to me is how weak the ratio line has become. NVDA price is still above its pivot low from 12 days ago, but the ratio line is not. In fact, the ratio has already broken below that prior low and gone on to make a five-month low. That’s important.

When a ratio line makes a new low before price does, it tells me that institutions are rotating elsewhere. Money is leaving NVDA relative to the SPY even though price hasn’t fully reflected it yet. This is a classic example of relative weakness leading price, not lagging it.

Why Ratio Line Correlation Matters

When I use ratio charts, I want to see a clean relationship between price and the ratio line. If the stock goes up, I want the ratio line moving up. If the stock goes down, the ratio line should move down as well.

If a ratio line chops sideways or moves randomly while price trends, I don’t find it useful. In my opinion, a ratio that doesn’t correlate well with price has little analytical value. That’s not the case here with NVDA, the correlation is excellent. The stock’s struggles are being confirmed by a weakening ratio line. That gives me confidence that this relative weakness is real and not just noise.

NVDA Isn’t Broken — But It’s on Watch

At this point, I’m not short NVDA. I’m simply watching it closely. Price is still holding above support, including the pivot low from roughly two weeks ago. As long as that level holds, NVDA can continue chopping around.

However, if NVDA breaks below the 169.55 low from two weeks ago, that would get my attention. A breakdown in price, combined with a ratio line already making multi-month lows, would be a strong confirmation of downside risk  especially if the broader market is also heading lower.

Why I pay attention to Relative Strength

This is exactly why I focus so much on relative strength. Price alone doesn’t always tell the full story. The ratio chart often gives me an early warning when a stock is falling out of favor.

Right now, NVDA isn’t leading. It’s lagging  and the ratio line is making that crystal clear. Until that changes, I’m treating NVDA as a stock to watch carefully, not one to aggressively buy.

Press the Button, Mr. President… Our Portfolios Can’t Wait!

 

This isn’t just cartoon exaggeration, it mirrors the anticipation in the cannabis market right now. With speculation swirling around a possible rescheduling announcement coming Monday, traders are glued to every hint, rumor, and headline. Stocks like MSOS, TLRY, and CGC could see significant moves depending on the news.

Cannabis stocks are notoriously sensitive to political developments. Even the slightest policy shift can trigger explosive after-hours or pre-market activity. Traders aren’t just watching the news, they’re trying to predict the button press before it happens.

The cartoon captures this perfectly: the blend of humor, suspense, and just a little bit of market anxiety. While we can laugh at the image, the reality is that preparation matters. Knowing your positions, managing risk, and planning potential trades ahead of the announcement is crucial.

So as we wait for Monday, whether you’re a seasoned trader or just following the news, the lesson is clear: excitement is part of the game but discipline wins it.