Relative Strength Led the Way: TSLA’s Breakout to New All-Time Highs

 

Today was a big day for TSLA as it pushed to new all-time highs, and the rally didn’t come out of nowhere. The strength we saw into the breakout was being telegraphed ahead of time through relative strength, and that’s what I want to walk through here.

Above is a 15-minute chart of TSLA, with SPY in the lower pane for comparison. For the past 8 days TSLA and SPY were moving in lockstep. The highs and lows were closely correlated, which is what you would normally expect when a stock is simply following the broader market. Nothing about that action stood out as unusual or noteworthy.

That changed at point A. While SPY was making a new swing low, TSLA did not fully confirm that weakness. The divergence wasn’t dramatic, but it was enough to get my attention. Instead of accelerating lower with the market, TSLA began to show subtle signs of buying pressure. These early divergences are easy to dismiss because they don’t look impressive on their own, but they often serve as the first clue that something is shifting beneath the surface.

By the time we reached point B, the relative strength became much more obvious. SPY continued to trend lower, pressing to fresh lows, while TSLA carved out a clear higher low. This is the type of behavior I’m always watching for. When a stock refuses to follow the market lower and instead begins to stabilize and turn up, it tells me that institutions may already be positioning.

Once resistance was broken at 482, the message was clear. TSLA broke out and rallied strongly into the close, confirming what the relative strength had been hinting at earlier in the day. From that point forward, momentum stayed firmly to the upside.

Looking ahead, I’d like to see a pullback toward the 482 level for a potential buying opportunity. Former resistance often becomes support, and if TSLA can hold that area, it would further validate the strength we’re seeing. We’ll see how things unfold, but for now, I really like the character of this move.

Going Up While the Market Goes Down: A Perfect Relative Strength Breakout in MSOS

 

What a great day for MSOS, which pushed to a new high for the year and gave us a textbook example of how powerful relative strength can be when it shows up at the right time. Days like this are exactly why I spend so much time watching how a stock or ETF behaves relative to the broader market, not just in isolation.

Above is a 5-minute chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane I have SPY for comparison. For most of the morning and well into the lunch hour, SPY was trending lower. Sellers were in control, and the general tone of the market was weak. Under normal circumstances, you would expect most ETFs to follow along. MSOS had other plans.

Instead of breaking down with the market, MSOS was quietly making higher lows. That divergence immediately caught my attention. While the market was leaking lower, buyers were consistently stepping in earlier on each pullback in MSOS. That’s a subtle but important clue that demand is overwhelming supply, even in a bearish market environment.

The setup became even more compelling when MSOS pushed up to 6.09, which also happened to be yesterday’s high. Now we had a clear reference level. Prior highs often act as resistance, and when price can lean on that level without backing off, it tells me pressure is building. MSOS spent time consolidating just beneath that level while SPY continued to struggle.

Right around 1:00, the divergence really paid off. SPY made another push to a new low, but MSOS did the exact opposite. It pushed to a new high, breaking out of the consolidation and clearing that prior resistance. That’s the moment I want to be involved,

From there, MSOS went on to rally beautifully into the close, rewarding anyone who recognized the relative strength early. This was a clean, high confidence breakout that didn’t require prediction, just observation. To me, it’s a wonderful example of how relative strength can lead price and point you toward the best opportunities, even on days when the broader market is working against you.

When Relative Weakness Speaks First: What AMZN vs SPY Is Telling Me

 

Above is a 2-hour chart of AMZN, and in the lower pane I’m tracking a ratio line of AMZN versus SPY. This ratio line is something I rely on heavily because, at times, it can act as a leading indicator often tipping its hand before price itself makes the message obvious. When I focus only on price, I’m seeing what everyone else sees. When I add the ratio, I’m seeing how that price is behaving relative to the broader market, and that perspective can be invaluable.

A great example of this showed up earlier on the chart at point A. The ratio line broke below the prior low well before AMZN’s price did. At the time, price action alone didn’t look particularly alarming, but the relative performance was already rolling over. That breakdown in the ratio was a subtle but important signal of underlying weakness, one that simply wasn’t visible by looking at AMZN in isolation. In the days that followed, price eventually caught up to what the ratio line had already been signaling, and AMZN trended lower.

Now I’m seeing a very similar setup developing again. The ratio line has once again broken down, this time pushing to a new low below point B, while price has not yet confirmed the move. To me, this is another clear indication that AMZN is underperforming the overall market. Even if the broader indexes are holding up, AMZN is quietly losing ground on a relative basis. That kind of divergence matters, especially when it repeats a pattern that has already played out once on the same chart.

From here, my focus is on the 115 level. That area stands out as key support, and it’s the line in the sand for how I’m thinking about this trade. If AMZN breaks below 115, that will be the confirmation I’m waiting for. At that point, price will be aligning with the message the ratio line is already sending, and I would expect lower prices in the days to come.

This is how I’m planning to play it, letting relative weakness guide me and waiting for price confirmation before acting. I’ve found that using the ratio line this way helps keep me on the right side of the market more often than not. Curious to hear your thoughts, do you use relative strength or ratio lines in a similar way, or do you prefer to rely strictly on price?

CURLF Holds Breakout While Maintaining Leadership in Cannabis

 

Above is a daily chart of CURLF, with the lower pane displaying the relative strength ratio of CURLF versus MSOS, and the technical picture is starting to look increasingly constructive. On Friday, CURLF broke out decisively on very heavy volume, a clear sign that big money interest may be returning to the name. Breakouts that occur on expanding volume tend to be more reliable, as they suggest real demand rather than a fleeting short-covering move or retail driven pop.

Following that strong breakout day, today’s action formed an inside day. Rather than being a negative, this is often exactly what you want to see after a powerful move. Price paused, consolidated the gains, and most importantly held above the breakout level. This type of tight consolidation indicates that sellers are not aggressively pressing their bets, while buyers appear comfortable holding their positions. In other words, the market is digesting the prior move instead of immediately giving it back.

The lower pane adds an important layer of confirmation. The CURLF versus MSOS ratio line remains in a clear uptrend, even through the recent pullback in the broader cannabis space. That relative strength is critical. It tells us that CURLF has been outperforming the sector ETF, which is exactly the behavior you want to see when trying to identify potential leaders. Strong stocks tend to stay strong on a relative basis, even when the group temporarily cools off.

Today, the ratio line turned higher once again, reinforcing the idea that CURLF continues to attract incremental capital compared to its peers. For me, that is further evidence that this stock is positioning itself as one of the leaders within the cannabis space rather than just another name moving in sympathy with headlines.

From a tactical standpoint, the level to watch is the high of the “mother candle” from Friday, which comes in at 4.04. A decisive move back above that level could trigger another breakout and potentially mark the start of a new leg higher. Until then, the current price action suggests constructive consolidation rather than distribution.

While cannabis traders will understandably remain on alert for any new headlines regarding rescheduling, it’s always an advantage to do the work in advance. Knowing which stocks are already showing leadership allows you to react decisively if the sector starts to run. CURLF, based on both price and relative strength, is firmly on that list.

Always One Stop Away: The Cannabis Catalyst and the Waiting Game

 

Expectations were high heading into today after CNBC reported Friday that President Trump was expected to move forward with rescheduling cannabis. That announcement never came. Markets, which had been pricing in near-term clarity, were left in limbo once again.

However, the story didn’t end there.

When asked directly by a reporter about marijuana rescheduling, Trump made it clear the issue is still very much on the table. His response was emphatic: “We’re looking at reclassifying marijuana VERY STRONGLY, it unlocks MASSIVE medical research!” While no timeline was provided, the language itself was notable. This wasn’t a dismissal or a delay framed as uncertainty. It was a reaffirmation of intent.

That distinction matters for investors.

Cannabis stocks have spent years trading in a fog of regulatory ambiguity, reacting violently to headlines while drifting lower in between. Today’s non-event reinforces a familiar pattern,  expectations run ahead of policy, followed by frustration when reality doesn’t immediately catch up. Yet the underlying thesis hasn’t changed. Rescheduling remains widely expected, the only real question is timing.

Some believe it could still happen this week. Others are looking toward year-end as a more realistic window. Until then, price action will continue to reflect that tension between hope and patience.

From a market perspective, these pauses often matter less than the broader trend. Big moves in heavily shorted, sentiment-driven sectors rarely begin with perfect clarity. They begin with uncertainty, skepticism, and repeated false starts. When the policy finally arrives, the market response is rarely subtle.

For now, cannabis investors remain in wait-and-see mode, watching headlines closely, but understanding that the eventual catalyst is likely a matter of when, not if.