A Classic Case of Relative Weakness: Why I’m Watching TEM on the Short Side

 Here’s a stock I’m watching closely for a potential short, and it’s a great example of why I always keep relative strength front and center in my analysis. Above is a 60-minute chart of TEM. In the middle pane I have the SPY for market context, and in the lower pane is a ratio line comparing TEM to SPY. Right away, the message from the chart is clear.

The SPY is pushing to a new high, yet TEM is doing the exact opposite. Instead of confirming the market’s strength, TEM is making a much lower high. This is a textbook example of relative weakness. When the overall market is strong and making new highs, but the stock you’re watching can’t even keep pace, that should immediately grab your attention. To me, that’s the market quietly telling you where money is not flowing.

The ratio line really drives this point home. It’s been in a clear downtrend, and more importantly, it has already broken down to a new swing low before price has done the same. This is one of the biggest clues I look for. Relative weakness often shows up in the ratio line first, and price tends to follow later. When I see the ratio making new lows ahead of price, I start thinking in terms of downside risk rather than upside potential.

As far as execution goes, I’m not interested in guessing. What I want to see is confirmation. In this case, recent support sits around 61.55. A clean break below 61.50, in my opinion, could open the door to continued weakness in the days ahead. That level is important because it represents the line in the sand where buyers have previously stepped in.

What makes this setup even more compelling is the broader context. This weakness is occurring while the overall market is rising. If TEM can’t hold up in a strong market, just imagine what might happen if the market starts to roll over. That’s why I’m keeping this one on my watchlist. For now, I’ll stay patient, wait for support to break, and let the market confirm the short before taking action.

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MSOS Chart Update: Watching for a Potential Bottom as Lower Highs Continue

 Well, the waiting continues for me as MSOS makes yet another lower daily high. This marks the fifth consecutive lower high, and it has me on alert, watching carefully for a potential long entry. It’s hard not to notice the similarity to November 20th, when we saw a comparable setup. Back then, MSOS also made consecutive lower daily highs, and that series of highs ended up marking a significant low. That historical context is why I’m particularly attentive this time around.

Volume has been shrinking over the past several days, which is understandable given the holiday season. Low volume is expected during Christmas, but it still tells me something important, the market is slowing down, consolidating and getting ready for its next move. We’re still within the gap area which I feel will act as a large zone of support. This is one of the reasons I expect MSOS to put in some kind of bottom any day now.

Another point I’m watching closely is the presence of back to back inside days. This pattern signals a slowdown in momentum and often precedes a more decisive move. I like to see this type of action as a potential setup for a directional trade. Personally, what I’ll be looking for is a break above the mother candle’s high at $4.87. If MSOS can take out that level, the next key spot will be $5, which I consider very important. Reclaiming that mark could signal a meaningful shift in sentiment.

Of course, I’m aware that plans don’t always unfold the way we hope. As Mick Jagger famously said, “You can’t always get what you want.” That’s something I keep in mind every time I sit in front of the charts. My approach is to take it one day at a time, reacting to the price action as it develops, rather than trying to force a trade.

We also have the bullish seasonal kicking in next month, which adds another layer of anticipation for me. Overall, my plan is clear, watch for a bottom, monitor the inside days, and wait for a breakout over $4.87 before considering a long entry. For now, patience is the key, and I’ll let the market reveal its next move.

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What Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Is Telling Us About Liquidity Flows

 I’m seeing a lot of chatter on social media lately about Bitcoin being “cheap” and a must buy right here, but based on what I’m seeing, I have to disagree. When I step back and look at Bitcoin through the lens of relative strength, the evidence suggests money is leaving the space, not flowing into it.

Above is a 60-minute chart of GBTC, and in the lower pane I’m using the SPY as a benchmark. This comparison is important because relative strength isn’t about whether something is going up or down in isolation, it’s about how it’s behaving compared to where money could be going instead. What stands out to me is that while the SPY has pushed to a new swing high, GBTC has failed to do the same. Instead, it’s carving out a clear series of lower highs.

That’s a major red flag. If Bitcoin were under accumulation, especially during a strong stock market environment, you wouldn’t expect to see persistent lower highs. Strong assets tend to confirm strength elsewhere, not diverge from it. When equities are attracting capital and Bitcoin can’t keep pace, it tells me liquidity is favoring stocks over crypto, at least for now.

This is why I’m always focused on liquidity flows. Markets move based on where capital is rotating, and right now, I don’t see convincing evidence that money is rotating into Bitcoin. Belief and narratives don’t move markets. capital does.

From a tactical standpoint, the level I’m watching is 67.50 on GBTC, which represents minor support. If that level is taken out, it would get my attention and increase the odds of further downside. Until then, I’m staying on the sidelines. The warning signs are there, and patience is a position.

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SUUN Stock Rallies on $4M Project Payment – Inside Day Sets Up Potential Breakout

 

Above is a daily chart of SUUN, and what grabs my attention is the massive volume over the past several days. This surge comes after PowerBank Corporation (NASDAQ:SUUN) received its initial $4 million payment for the previously announced Elmira, Jordan Road 1, and Jordan Road 2 projects. The company expects the remaining portion of the $41 million transaction to be paid as construction milestones are met. This milestone-based payment schedule follows standard solar EPC industry practices, aligning revenue recognition with project progress and mitigating risk.

From a trading perspective, the volume spike indicates strong interest and participation in the stock, which is always something I look for when evaluating potential entries. The price action shows SUUN forming an inside day following Tuesday’s big rally, which is a classic consolidation pattern. Inside days often signal that the market is digesting the prior move before deciding on the next directional push.

The key level I’m watching is $2.18, which was Tuesday’s high. A break above this level could offer a potential long opportunity, as it would indicate that buyers are ready to push the stock higher after consolidating. With the combination of strong volume, positive fundamentals, and a clear technical pattern, SUUN is a stock I’m keeping on my radar. For traders who focus on breakout setups and continuation patterns, this chart is definitely worth watching closely over the next few sessions.

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Cannabis Stocks and Seasonality: Why January and February Matter Most

 

With just a few trading days left in the year, I wanted to take a step back and talk about seasonality in the cannabis stocks. When I look at seasonality, I usually start with MSOS, but in this case MJ gives us a longer data set, which makes it more useful for this type of analysis. Above is a seasonal chart of MJ, and what immediately stands out to me is that we are approaching what has historically been the most bullish time of the year for cannabis stocks.

As the chart shows, January and February have consistently been the strongest months, and they tend to produce the largest gains. That doesn’t mean prices will automatically move higher just because the calendar flips, but seasonality does give us a roadmap. It helps frame what is more likely to happen based on historical tendencies rather than emotion or guesswork.

If you’ve been reading my recent posts, you already know that from a technical standpoint I believe the cannabis stocks are setting up to turn higher. We’re seeing constructive price action across many of the major names, and that technical picture lines up well with the seasonal tailwind we’re about to enter. When technicals and seasonality start pointing in the same direction, I pay attention.

What really adds to my interest right now is volume. December has seen record monthly volume in names like MSOS, MSOX, CGC, TLRY and several others across the space. Heavy volume often shows that large players are positioning ahead of a potential move, not chasing it after the fact. On top of that, there’s a possible fundamental catalyst on the horizon, with Pam Bondi reportedly under pressure from President Trump to finalize marijuana rescheduling by the end of January. Whether or not that happens exactly on schedule, the market tends to move in anticipation, not reaction.

Of course, seasonality is not a guarantee. Nobody has a crystal ball, and anything can happen in the short term. All I’m doing is weighing the probabilities and sharing how I see the pieces lining up. Right now, technicals, volume, and seasonality appear to be working together, and that’s enough for me to stay engaged and prepared. I’d love to hear what you think.

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