TLRY May Be Turning the Corner as Seasonality and Price Action Line Up

 

As many of you know, I’ve been stalking TLRY and the rest of the cannabis space for an opportunity to add to my position, and after Friday’s action I think TLRY may finally be starting to turn the corner. I’ve been patient with this group, waiting for price to tell me when the risk starts to shift back to the upside, and we may be getting that signal now.

If you look at the daily chart of TLRY on the left, you’ll see that price appears to be bouncing right off the gap I’ve outlined on the chart. That area has acted as a reference point for me, and seeing buyers step in there is encouraging. On Friday we also saw a slight expansion in volatility along with a modest uptick in volume. It wasn’t anything dramatic, but it was enough to suggest that selling pressure may be easing and buyers are beginning to show some interest.

Turning to the weekly chart on the right, there’s a pattern that continues to stand out. TLRY has a tendency to pull back for roughly two weeks before making its next push higher, and that rhythm seems to be playing out once again. Last week’s range contraction makes sense as well, especially with the holiday shortened trading week. Quiet weeks like that often set the stage for a more active move to follow.

What I’m watching closely now is how TLRY behaves this week. Ideally, I’d like to see the stock take out last week’s high at 9.85, and I’d want to see that happen with expanding range and increasing volume. That would go a long way toward confirming that momentum is shifting.

Seasonality is also worth keeping in mind. Historically, cannabis stocks tend to perform well during January and February, which adds another supportive layer to this setup. Now it’s simply a matter of staying patient and seeing how things unfold from here.

MSOS Setting Up for a Bigger Move After Weekly Inside Bar

 Above is a weekly chart of MSOS, and I want to focus on the inside week that has just formed. Inside bars have always caught my attention because they often show up right before an expansion in volatility. Markets don’t stay quiet forever, and periods of tight consolidation usually lead to a larger, more directional move. That’s exactly why I think this setup deserves our attention right now.

An inside week tells us that neither buyers nor sellers were able to take control. The range tightened, emotions cooled, and energy started to build beneath the surface. At some point, that compressed range gives way, and when it does, the move can be meaningful. In this case, the high of the candle just prior to the inside week comes in at 5.01. For me, that level matters. If we see MSOS trade 5.02 bid, I think that could be the spark that ignites the next move higher.

Adding to the bullish case is the seasonal backdrop. Historically, this time of year tends to be favorable for the cannabis space, and that bullish seasonal could assert itself at any moment. Seasonality alone isn’t enough to take a trade, but when it lines up with a technical pattern like this, it certainly adds weight to the argument.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed. There is always the risk that the broader market rolls over and pulls everything lower, possibly leading MSOS to attempt to fill the gap on the daily chart. That’s a scenario I’m keeping in the back of my mind. 

What really stands out to me is that this compression isn’t just happening on the weekly chart. We also have an inside day on the daily chart, which further reinforces the idea that a move is coming. When multiple timeframes line up like this, it often leads to action sooner rather than later.

Now it becomes a game of patience. I’m watching the range, I’m watching volume and relative strength, and I’m staying focused on that 5.01 level. Let’s see which side shows its hand first and where the volume takes us from here.

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Why NFLX’s Relative Weakness Could Signal Lower Prices Ahead

 

About a month ago I posted about the potential weakness developing in NFLX, and since that time we’ve seen the stock move lower. Now, as I look at the charts again, I think there are fresh signs that this weakness may not be finished yet.

Above is a daily chart of NFLX, and below that is the SPY for comparison. One of the most important things I always look for is how a stock behaves relative to the broader market. From points A to B on the chart, the SPY pushed to a new high, signaling continued strength in the market. During that same period, however, NFLX was unable to make progress. Instead of confirming the market’s strength, the stock moved sideways, carving out a tight consolidation range.

That type of action is often an early warning sign. When the market is strong but a stock can’t participate, it usually means sellers are quietly distributing shares. Now we’re starting to see that consolidation resolve to the downside, with NFLX breaking lower in a way that closely resembles the relative weakness we saw back in early December.

From here, I think the risk remains to the downside. The next key area I’m watching is the psychological $90 level. If NFLX cracks below that level, I believe lower prices are likely in the days ahead, especially if the market begins to lose momentum as well.

This is another good reminder of why relative strength analysis can be so valuable. It often gives us clues about future price direction well before the move becomes obvious.

I’ll continue to monitor how NFLX behaves versus the SPY, as that relationship should tell us a lot about what comes next.

If you’d like to revisit my original analysis and see why NFLX first appeared on my radar, you can read my earlier post here.

PLTR Update: Managing Risk While Staying Positioned for More Downside

A few days ago, I posted about the warning signs PLTR was showing through the lens of relative strength, but in this case it was relative weakness that caught my attention. I highlighted how the trendline break would act as the confirmation for the setup, and that signal has already played out. Even so, I still think there is more room to the downside, as the next significant support level sits around the $150 mark.

To manage risk, I decided to take some profits off the table. I closed about a third of my position on the recent close. This allows me to lock in gains and reduce exposure so that if the trade unexpectedly reverses, my loss on the remaining position will be very small. It’s always important to respect risk and be ready for scenarios that don’t go your way.

I’m still holding two-thirds of my original position because I believe there’s a chance for a larger move down. The setup is still valid, and the technicals suggest that the downside momentum could continue before reaching the next support level.

. This trade is a good example of balancing risk management with conviction, taking profits where appropriate, but staying engaged for the bigger move.

It’s always a careful balance, but having a plan for both partial profits and holding a core position helps me manage risk while staying positioned for meaningful gains.

If you’d like to understand why I got into this trade in the first place, you can read my original PLTR trade analysis from a few days ago.

RDW Soars: How the 6-Day Cycle Helped Spot This Trade

Wow, what a day for RDW! This is a stock I’ve been writing about recently, and the 6-day cycle really helped us time into the trade perfectly. If you missed my early heads-up from a few days ago, today would have been a great example of how relative strength can guide you into a trade. I want to walk through the setup and show why this move unfolded so cleanly.

Above is a 5-minute chart of RDW, with the SPY in the lower pane for comparison. Around 10:20 ET, the SPY made a lower low, but RDW held a much higher low. That divergence was a clear clue that buyers were in control. Another hint was the elevated volume compared to the previous day, the kind of confirmation that signals conviction from the buying side.

Once the stock broke above $8.35, it continued moving higher into the close. Watching this unfold in real time, it was just a wonderful setup: clear price structure, strong relative strength, and supportive volume.

On the right is a daily chart of RDW, and you can see this is the largest green day we’ve seen in a while. The top of the channel comes in around $9.50, so I think there’s more upside potential still left in the stock before we see a pullback.

This trade is a great example of how combining the 6-day cycle with relative strength analysis can give you an edge, letting you spot entries well before a big move occurs. The signals were there, you just had to know what to look for.

For a deeper dive on this trade and how the 6-day cycle helped me get in ahead of this move, click here. It’s always exciting to see a plan come together, and RDW is a textbook example of timing, strength, and conviction lining up perfectly.