PLTR Runs Into Heavy Resistance: Watching 176–178 Closely

 Above is a 2-hour chart of PLTR that includes both the pre-market and after-hours sessions and there are a few important things that stand out to me. After-hours right now at 10:30pm ET,  PLTR has rallied right back into a well defined resistance zone that I’ve marked between 176 and 178. This area has acted as demand in the past and should now act as supply. So far it looks like price is responding to it once again.

Zooming out slightly, the broader structure over the last couple of weeks still looks bearish to me. We’ve seen a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, which tells me the short-term trend remains down. Rallies like this, especially when they push into resistance, often turn into opportunities rather than reasons to chase strength. That’s why I’m paying close attention to how PLTR behaves here instead of reacting to the move higher.

At this point, I’m not in a position, but PLTR is firmly on my watchlist for a potential shorting opportunity. What I want to see is some sign of failure in this resistance zone, whether that’s a rejection wick, loss of momentum, or a rollover back below the prior intraday support. If sellers step in and defend this area, it would reinforce the idea that this rally is corrective rather than the start of a new uptrend.

For now, patience is key. I’m less interested in predicting what will happen and more focused on waiting for confirmation. Tomorrow morning should give us more clarity, especially with how the stock trades around this 176–178 zone once regular market hours get underway.

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Why Bitcoin’s Cycle and Weekly Structure Suggest Lower Prices Ahead

 

Above is a daily chart of bitcoin, and what really stands out to me is how well this fairly simple two month cycle has tracked price over the past several swings. When I first overlaid the cycle on the chart, I didn’t expect it to line up this cleanly, but if you look closely, the troughs in the cycle are almost perfectly aligned with key lows in bitcoin. That kind of consistency is something I pay attention to, especially when it starts to line up with the broader technical picture.

Based on where we are in that cycle right now, the implication is that bitcoin still has some work to do on the downside, potentially into the end of January. Cycles aren’t timing tools to the exact day, but they do a good job of framing expectations. When a cycle suggests weakness and the chart structure agrees, I’m much more cautious on the long side.

Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, even though I’m not showing that chart here, we are dealing with what looks like a classic bear flag. After a sharp decline, price has been consolidating in a relatively tight range, drifting higher in an orderly fashion. That’s why I’ve drawn the blue trendline on the daily chart. This line represents the lower boundary of that consolidation, and it’s an important level to watch.

If bitcoin starts to roll over and breaks that trendline, especially while the cycle is still pointing lower, that would be a strong signal to me that another leg down is unfolding. At the moment, I don’t have a position, and I’m comfortable with that. There’s no need to be early when the market hasn’t confirmed the move yet. For now, I’m staying patient, watching how price reacts around that trendline, and waiting for confirmation before committing capital.

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TLT: Consolidation, Relative Weakness, and Why the Odds Still Favor Lower Prices

 

Above is a monthly chart of TLT and below it a ratio chart of TLT versus the SPY, and there are a few important things I want to point out. On the TLT chart I’ve marked three major consolidation zones labeled A, B, and C. What’s interesting is that during each of these consolidation periods, the ratio line was trending lower. That tells us TLT was underperforming equities even while price was moving sideways. In each case, that relative weakness eventually resolved itself to the downside, and TLT went on to trade lower in the months that followed.

We’re seeing that same pattern develop again right now at point C. TLT has been consolidating for roughly two years, but during that entire period the ratio line has continued to trend lower. To me, this is a clear message that money is still leaving the bond market and flowing elsewhere. Sideways price action can fool a lot of people into thinking a bottom is forming, but when relative strength keeps deteriorating, it usually means the market is just pausing before the next leg lower. Based on this setup alone, lower prices in TLT would not surprise me.

The next chart I want to talk about is a monthly chart of the 30-year bond futures, with the Commitment of Traders data shown in the lower pane. The red line represents commercial traders, while the blue line represents small traders. Historically, commercials tend to be on the right side of major moves, while small traders often get positioned incorrectly at key turning points. Right now, the commercial traders’ short position is at levels that have coincided with notable bond market sell offs in the past. You can see similar readings in the summer of 2012 and again in 2016. In 2018 we saw another sell signal, although that move turned out to be more modest.

The key takeaway is that commercials are flashing a sell signal, not a buy signal. There’s been a lot of talk on social media about record short interest in TLT, and that lines up with what we’re seeing in the commercial positioning. At the same time, small traders are very long, and they have a history of being heavily long near market tops. I know many investors are hoping 2026 will finally be the year bonds stage a meaningful rally, but based on the evidence right now, the odds still favor another move lower.

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TCNNF Emerges as a Cannabis Leader on Relative Strength and Record Volume

 

Above is a monthly chart of TCNNF and below that a ratio chart of TCNNF versus MSOS, and this is exactly the kind of setup I like to pay attention to when evaluating leadership within a sector. I don’t just want to know how a stock is performing against the S&P 500, I also want to see how it stacks up against its own industry. Comparing TCNNF directly to MSOS gives a much clearer picture of whether this name is attracting capital relative to its peers.

What really stands out to me here is the ratio line. TCNNF versus MSOS has pushed to an all-time high, which tells me that this stock is outperforming the broader cannabis ETF on a relative basis. That’s an important clue. In any sector, there are always leaders and laggards, and money tends to flow toward the names showing persistent relative strength. Right now, TCNNF is clearly acting like a leader.

Another notable development is volume. December’s monthly volume came in at an all time high, which is not something I ignore. When I see record volume occurring alongside relative strength, it often signals institutional participation or at least growing interest from larger market participants. Volume is the fuel behind price, and expanding volume at key moments can foreshadow meaningful moves ahead.

From a longer-term perspective, this combination of relative strength and volume expansion is exactly what I want to see when building a watchlist. It doesn’t guarantee higher prices in the short term, but it does suggest that TCNNF is being accumulated.

If you’re bullish on the cannabis space and looking for potential leaders rather than just exposure to the group as a whole, TCNNF is a stock that deserves a spot on your radar.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

TLRY May Be Turning the Corner as Seasonality and Price Action Line Up

 

As many of you know, I’ve been stalking TLRY and the rest of the cannabis space for an opportunity to add to my position, and after Friday’s action I think TLRY may finally be starting to turn the corner. I’ve been patient with this group, waiting for price to tell me when the risk starts to shift back to the upside, and we may be getting that signal now.

If you look at the daily chart of TLRY on the left, you’ll see that price appears to be bouncing right off the gap I’ve outlined on the chart. That area has acted as a reference point for me, and seeing buyers step in there is encouraging. On Friday we also saw a slight expansion in volatility along with a modest uptick in volume. It wasn’t anything dramatic, but it was enough to suggest that selling pressure may be easing and buyers are beginning to show some interest.

Turning to the weekly chart on the right, there’s a pattern that continues to stand out. TLRY has a tendency to pull back for roughly two weeks before making its next push higher, and that rhythm seems to be playing out once again. Last week’s range contraction makes sense as well, especially with the holiday shortened trading week. Quiet weeks like that often set the stage for a more active move to follow.

What I’m watching closely now is how TLRY behaves this week. Ideally, I’d like to see the stock take out last week’s high at 9.85, and I’d want to see that happen with expanding range and increasing volume. That would go a long way toward confirming that momentum is shifting.

Seasonality is also worth keeping in mind. Historically, cannabis stocks tend to perform well during January and February, which adds another supportive layer to this setup. Now it’s simply a matter of staying patient and seeing how things unfold from here.