TLRY Teases $10 but Flashes Relative Weakness

 What is going on with TLRY? That was the question running through my head for most of the session today. We started the day with a strong rally, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. From the open, momentum looked impressive, and at least to me it felt like buyers were in control. Price pushed higher steadily, and TLRY eventually reached an intraday high of 9.95. As you know, the $10 level is the area I’ve been focused on, so seeing the stock get that close made it feel like a breakout attempt was genuinely on the table.

For a while, the action was behaving exactly the way I wanted to see. Momentum was building, and the tape suggested follow through could be coming. However, that optimism didn’t last. Relative weakness started flashing warning signs, and once I saw it, I couldn’t unsee it. The divergence between TLRY and MSOS was especially telling.

At point A on the chart, both TLRY and MSOS made higher highs on the day. That’s normal and healthy market behavior, particularly when the group is acting well. But then point B told a very different story. When MSOS went on to make a new high, TLRY failed to confirm it and instead put in a lower high. That kind of action is a classic signal that sellers are stepping in and gaining control, and it’s not something I want to see when I’m anticipating a breakout.

Not long after that divergence appeared, TLRY broke minor support and began to roll over. The selling pressure picked up, and the stock faded into the close, effectively shutting the door on any near-term breakout attempt. It was a disappointing finish given how strong the day started.

That said, the bigger picture still matters. On the daily chart, TLRY is holding gap support, which keeps the overall setup intact for now. As long as that support holds, I’m still watching closely for another push toward, and potentially through, the $10 level. For now, it’s a waiting game. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

EVTV Explodes on Record Volume: Watching for a Pullback

 

Today was a big day for EVTV, with the stock closing up more than $2 from Friday’s close. Moves like that always demand attention, and the volume confirmed it was no ordinary session. We saw record trading activity with over 680 million shares exchanged, which tells me there was a massive surge in interest and participation. When price and volume expand together like that, it usually signals that something has changed, at least in the short term.

That said, this is not the type of move I like to chase. After such a sharp advance in a single session, the risk-reward often becomes skewed, and emotions tend to run hot. Instead, EVTV is a name I plan on watching closely over the next few days while I wait to see how the stock digests this move. Strong stocks often need time to consolidate or pull back before offering cleaner entries.

Looking at the 15-minute chart, there is a clear level of interest around 1.75. This area previously acted as resistance and was decisively taken out during today’s surge. In many cases, former resistance can turn into support on a pullback, making it a logical spot to monitor for buyers to step back in. What makes this level even more compelling is how well it aligns with the higher time frame.

On the daily chart, there is a significant level around the 1.65 area. This zone was tested multiple times in the past, acting as a ceiling before today’s breakout. Now that price is above it, that same area could serve as an important support zone. When short-term and daily levels overlap, I tend to pay closer attention.

If EVTV does pull back, the 1.60 to 1.75 range stands out as a potential support area. That’s the zone where I would be very interested in doing some buying, assuming the price action cooperates.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Breaks the Line in the Sand: Is the Cannabis Trade Finally Waking Up?

Well, MSOS finally broke above $5, and that level was a big deal for me. As you know, $5 was my line in the sand when it came to adding to my long position, so seeing price push through it is meaningful. I’ve been waiting patiently for confirmation, and this move checks an important box from both a technical and psychological standpoint. 

If you read my last post, I highlighted the back to back weekly inside weeks. In my experience, that type of price compression often acts like a coiled spring. When volatility tightens up that much, it usually resolves with a trending move, not just a quick pop and fade. From what it appears, that move higher may have just begun today. It’s still early, but the structure is encouraging, especially after such a prolonged period of consolidation and frustration over the past 3 weeks.

Another factor worth keeping front and center is seasonality. Cannabis stocks tend to benefit from a strong seasonal tailwind that kicks in around January and often runs into February. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does tilt the odds slightly in favor of the bulls, and I always want to be aware of when technicals and seasonals are aligned. Right now, that alignment is hard to ignore.

Volume today picked up modestly, which is a step in the right direction, although I would have liked to see heavier participation to really confirm an igniting move. Still, improving volume alongside a key breakout is better than the alternative. It suggests interest is returning, even if enthusiasm hasn’t fully caught fire yet. Keep in mind institutional ownership has been on the rise.

It also wasn’t just MSOS showing strength. Several other cannabis names broke out of their consolidations, including VRNO, CRLBF, TSNDF, and GTBIF. Seeing multiple names participate adds weight to the move and hints that this could be more than just a one stock story.

From here, I’m content to take it one day at a time. If these bullish influences continue to build and we finally get the catalyst we’ve all been waiting for, this market could have plenty of room to run.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

MSOS Is Winding the Spring — Something Big Is Brewing

 

This week should be a very interesting one for cannabis stocks, because I believe we may be getting close to a move that finally ignites. Above is a weekly chart of MSOS, and the very first thing that jumps out at me is the presence of back to back inside weeks. When you see this type of price action, it tells you the market is tightening up. Over the past three weeks, the trading range has continued to narrow, and many times this kind of contraction is exactly what precedes an explosive move.

What makes these inside weeks even more compelling is where the weekly closes are occurring. Each of the last few weekly closes has been within roughly five cents of one another. In my opinion, that’s not a coincidence. It shows a real equilibrium between buyers and sellers, where neither side has been able to gain the upper hand. When markets reach this type of balance, they rarely stay there for long. Eventually, something gives.

Now, does this mean I’m predicting that a major catalyst is guaranteed to appear this coming week? Not at all. Markets don’t need official news to move. Sometimes the anticipation of news is enough. Traders may start positioning ahead of a potential announcement. Maybe rumors begin circulating that Pam Bondi is close to finalizing rescheduling. Maybe the White House provides an update. Or maybe nothing concrete happens at all. Regardless, when price contracts this tightly, even a small spark can start a move that snowballs quickly.

As I’ve been saying for weeks, the key level I’m watching is $5. That level is my line in the sand. I want to see MSOS trade $5.01 bid before I add to my long position. A clean move above $5 would tell me that buyers are finally stepping in with conviction and that the market is ready to resolve higher. Until then, patience is required.

At the same time, I’m not ignoring the downside. It’s entirely possible that we head lower first, especially if the market decides it wants to fill the gap sitting below current prices. That scenario wouldn’t surprise me, and it wouldn’t invalidate the larger setup either. Consolidations can break in either direction before the real move unfolds.

The main takeaway for me is simple: this market is contracting, volatility is being compressed, and a meaningful move is likely right around the corner. Whether it happens on a headline or simply on positioning and anticipation, I’ll be watching closely.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

AAPL’s $11 Weekly Pattern: What History Tells Us About Next Week

 Above is a weekly chart of AAPL, and in the lower pane, I’ve added a histogram showing the difference between each week’s close and its open. Over the past 15 months, I’ve noticed an interesting pattern that I want to share with you. Whenever AAPL closes the week $11 or more away from its weekly open, the stock has a tendency to rally the following week. Put another way, if Friday’s close is $11 lower than Monday’s open, buying at the next Monday’s open and holding through Friday has historically resulted in a positive return.

Looking back, this scenario has occurred seven times in the past 15 months, and each time the stock rallied the following week. I find it fascinating because it provides a simple, mechanical edge that doesn’t rely on guesswork or market timing. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the markets, but having a repeated pattern like this can help guide trading decisions and improve probabilities.

That said, AAPL has been showing relative weakness versus the broader market lately, so it will be particularly interesting to see if this pattern holds. Sometimes even historically reliable patterns can fail when the underlying trend of the stock is weak compared to the market, which is why I like to watch relative strength alongside price-based patterns.

For me, these kinds of observations are exactly what makes trading exciting. Patterns, edges, and setups like this give structure to the otherwise chaotic world of stocks. I’ll be closely watching AAPL in the coming week to see if history repeats itself and whether a clear setup emerges based on this weekly close/open pattern.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage