Price Was Quiet, Relative Weakness Was Screaming in QQQ

 

Relative Weakness on Display in QQQ

What a great example of relative weakness in QQQ over yesterday and today. This is one of those moments where viewing the market through the lens of relative strength almost feels like having an X-ray machine. You’re not just seeing price, you’re seeing what’s happening under the surface and in this case, the message was loud and clear well before price finally gave way.

Above is a 10-minute chart of QQQ, and in the lower pane is the relative strength ratio of QQQ vs SPY. On the surface, QQQ didn’t look particularly threatening at first glance. Price was chopping sideways, nothing dramatic, nothing that would necessarily scare you out of a position if you were only watching candles.

But the relative strength line was telling a very different story.

Sideways Price, Weakening Internals

From point A to point B, QQQ price moved sideways. If you were focused solely on price action, you might have concluded that the market was simply digesting recent gains or pausing before another move higher. There was no obvious breakdown, no aggressive selling, and no sense of urgency.

However, the relative strength line was trending lower the entire time.

That’s the key. While price appeared stable, QQQ was quietly underperforming SPY. Capital was rotating away from QQQ, even though price hadn’t yet reflected that weakness. This is exactly why I rely so heavily on relative strength, it reveals what price alone hides.

The Early Warning at Point B

By the time we reached point B, the message became even clearer. The relative strength line had already broken to new lows, signaling confirmed relative weakness. This breakdown happened before QQQ itself broke support.

That’s the beauty of relative strength analysis: it often acts as a leading indicator. It doesn’t wait for the obvious breakdown. It alerts you while price is still lulling traders into a false sense of security.

If you were watching only price, there was no clear reason to expect trouble. But if you were watching relative strength, the warning signs were already flashing.

Price Finally Catches Up

Once support finally broke, QQQ did exactly what the relative strength line had been hinting at all along. The ETF trended lower yesterday and continued lower into today, confirming the earlier signal. What looked like harmless consolidation turned out to be distribution.

This is a textbook example of why I say that looking at price alone isn’t enough. Relative strength adds critical context. It tells you where money is flowing and more importantly, where it’s leaving.

Final Thoughts

This was just a great, clean example of relative weakness in action. Sideways price, deteriorating relative strength, an early breakdown in the ratio, and then price following lower shortly after. When you learn to trust what relative strength is telling you, you stop reacting late and start positioning early.

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Is RDW About to Do What It Usually Does Every 52 Days?

 This is now the sixth consecutive day where RDW has closed below its open, and that kind of short-term weakness is exactly what gets my attention. When I see multiple red closes in a row, I don’t automatically think “run away.” More often than not, I start thinking about pullbacks and whether the stock is setting up for a tradable low. In this case, I think RDW is pulling back into an area where a buy entry could start to make sense.

Above is a daily chart of RDW with its 52-day cycle highlighted in green. I want you to really study that chart, because the accuracy of these cyclical lows is hard to ignore. Roughly every 52 trading days, RDW has put in a meaningful low, and those lows have often marked excellent entry points. Cycles don’t need to be perfect to be useful, and in my opinion, this one has shown pretty darn good timing when it comes to identifying downside exhaustion.

I always encourage you to be your own judge when it comes to cycles. Look at the chart closely and decide for yourself if this pattern has merit. For me, the consistency is enough to take it seriously, especially when price action lines up with the timing window. The main reason I’m showing you this cycle is simple: we are now in the time window for another cyclical low if this pattern continues to hold up.

That said, I’m not in a rush to jump in blindly. Time alone isn’t a signal. What I want to see next is evidence that buyers are actually stepping in. That could show up in several ways, relative strength versus the market, a bullish engulfing candle on a lower time frame, or a surge in volume that suggests accumulation. Any of those would tell me that selling pressure is starting to dry up and demand is returning.

From a price perspective, support appears to be coming in around the $9 level. If RDW tests that area and we see a clean bounce, that may be enough for me to get long. I don’t need to catch the exact bottom; I just want confirmation that the low is likely in or very close.

The most important takeaway here is that RDW is currently sitting in a critical time window for a meaningful low. If this 52-day cycle continues to assert itself, the odds start to favor a reversal rather than further downside. Because of that, RDW is firmly on my radar, and I’ll be staying alert for a clear buy signal to present itself.

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TCNNF and the 50-Day Cycle: My Low-Risk, High-Reward Cannabis Setup

 

If you’ve been following my recent posts, you know I’ve been watching the 50-day cycle in MSOS very closely. It’s a cycle I’ve been stalking because it tends to mark some of the most important turning points in the cannabis sector. As I mentioned in my last post, I believe the cyclical low is in, and that has me thinking about how this pattern connects with other big movers in the space. One of the standout names at the end of the day was TCNNF, which happens to be one of my favorite cannabis stocks. I wanted to zoom in and show you how that same 50-day rhythm in MSOS aligns surprisingly well with TCNNF.

Looking at the daily chart of TCNNF, it’s fascinating to see how consistently this cycle nails the lows. Each low is roughly the same distance apart, and that distance just so happens to be about 50 trading days. I’ve been tracking cycles for a while now, and the thing about them is that they repeat at fairly predictable intervals. The actual triggers for the moves, however, aren’t always obvious. Sometimes it’s news, sometimes it’s market sentiment, and sometimes it’s just the invisible hand of the cycle itself nudging prices at the right moment.

The last cyclical low for TCNNF was back in December, and if you remember, that rally was driven by anticipation of President Trump rescheduling cannabis. That event acted as a catalyst, giving life to the pattern and driving the stock higher. This time, I don’t know what the catalyst will be. Will it be Pam Bondi finalizing rescheduling? Some other regulatory announcement? The truth is, my job isn’t to predict headlines, it’s to identify patterns and trade them. Cycles have been described as mysterious forces that trigger events, and I’m just along for the ride, watching as the pieces fall into place.

Now, I have to admit, I could be totally wrong about the timing. Nothing in trading is guaranteed, and cycles aren’t foolproof. But the signals I’m seeing are aligning in a way that suggests this could be a low-risk, high-reward area. For me, TCNNF is at the top of my watchlist right now. The alignment of the 50-day cycle, combined with its history of predictable lows, makes this a stock I’m excited to follow closely. It’s one of those setups where the odds feel stacked in my favor, and even if the market surprises me, the risk remains defined.

Trading isn’t about certainty. it’s about positioning yourself where the probabilities are favorable. That’s exactly what I think I’m seeing with TCNNF right now, and I’m sharing it with all of you because the setup is too interesting to keep to myself.

This article reflects my personal market analysis and is for educational purposes only. For a deeper look with more data, see my post from yesterday on MSOS returning to the 50-day cycle window here

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MSOS: Is the 50-Day Cycle Low In?

 

Today was an interesting day for MSOS for several reasons, and I want to walk through what I was watching and why I think it matters. As you know, just yesterday I wrote about the 50-day cycle that is expected to bottom this week. Going into today, I was already on alert for signs of that low coming in, and I have to say I saw some encouraging evidence both yesterday and again today.

On the left is a 30-minute chart of MSOS, and in the lower pane I’m comparing MSOS versus the SPY. The first thing that immediately stood out to me was how well the 3.95 level held. That area acted like a clear floor of support throughout the session. Every time price dipped into that zone, sellers couldn’t push it any lower. That alone was noteworthy, but what really caught my attention was what the broader market was doing at the same time.

While MSOS was holding firm at support, the SPY was making new intraday lows. Normally, you’d expect MSOS to crack if the market is selling off, but that didn’t happen. Instead, the ratio line in the lower pane began to rise, showing bullish divergence. That’s your first real clue that something has changed. When a stock or ETF refuses to go down while the market is making new lows, it usually means buyers are stepping in and quietly accumulating shares.

Another important detail was volume. The last 30 minutes of trading saw the heaviest volume we’ve seen in weeks. That’s not something I ignore. Heavy volume into the close, especially near support and after a prolonged decline, often signals institutional participation. In my opinion, that volume confirms what the relative strength was already hinting at: demand is starting to show up.

Based on all of this, I believe the 50-day cycle low that we were expecting this week may already be in. Now, nobody knows for sure what will happen next, and I’m the first to admit that. Markets don’t give guarantees. But if I’m right, I think we’ll see MSOS begin to trend higher over the coming weeks.

Looking at the daily chart on the right adds more context. We came very close to filling the gap, which often happens near important lows. Even more important, we broke the downtrend line drawn from the December high. That doesn’t automatically mean straight up from here, but it is a meaningful change in character.

Whether this turns out to be a major low or not remains to be seen. What matters most to me is risk management and protecting capital. At these levels, I believe the reward-to-risk is favorable, which is why I added yesterday and again today to the long position I’ve been holding for quite some time. Now we wait and let the market tell us the rest. Let’s see what happens.

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CGC: Is the Timing Finally Lining Up?

 

CGC… is it time? If you read my last post on MSOS, then you already know that the 50-day cycle is due this week. This is the same cycle I’ve been tracking and trading for a long time now, and when it kicks in, it rarely acts in isolation. Historically, it tends to lift the entire cannabis space, and CGC is no exception. Whether you love the company or hate it, this stock has a track record of moving hard when the timing lines up.

Just look at what CGC did at the last cyclical low back in November. From low to high, the stock doubled. Go back even further to last April and you’ll see a similar story, it doubled again. That’s not a coincidence, and it’s not something I’m ignoring. CGC may not always be a leader, but when the group catches a bid, it has a habit of responding in a big way. That’s exactly why I’m paying attention here.

From a technical standpoint, CGC is sitting in an interesting spot. The stock is currently at the bottom of an ascending channel that began back in March of last year. This channel has defined price action for nearly a year, and today it looks like CGC may finally be starting to bounce off that lower boundary. I’m not calling a confirmed bottom yet, but the location matters. When price is this stretched to the downside and lines up with a cyclical time window, my ears perk up.

What really caught my attention, though, is the ratio line of CGC versus MSOS. That ratio just broke above a downtrend line that has been in place since the spring of last year. Relative strength shifts like that often show up before price makes a meaningful move, not after. To me, that’s another piece of evidence suggesting that downside momentum may be fading and that CGC could be setting up for a turn.

Given that we’re now in the time window for a cyclical low and price is beginning to confirm the possibility of a bottom, I’m watching this very closely. I’m already long CGC, and I’ll be looking to add on a move over 1.20. That level would tell me that buyers are finally stepping in with some conviction.

Some of you may argue that CGC isn’t exactly the best cannabis company out there, and you may be right. But this trade isn’t about fundamentals, it’s about timing. When a rising tide comes in, it usually lifts all boats. If CGC does what it’s done in the past and doubles from here, I certainly won’t complain. From where I’m sitting, the risk-reward looks favorable.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage