TLRY: A Case Study in Relative Weakness

 I received a few emails today asking why I sold part of my TLRY position, so I figured I’d give a quick update for anyone who’s interested and maybe clear up my thinking a bit. This wasn’t an emotional decision or a sudden change in my overall view of the cannabis space. It was simply a response to what the chart was telling me.

If you look at the 5-minute chart of TLRY above, with MSOS in the lower pane, the relative weakness really stands out. Yesterday, MSOS made a much higher high at point B compared to point A. That’s exactly what you want to see when momentum is improving. Now, if TLRY were acting well, you would expect it to do the same thing at the very least, make a similar higher high. Instead, TLRY did the opposite. At point B, it put in a much lower high. That divergence is classic relative weakness, and it immediately put TLRY on my radar.

That said, noticing relative weakness doesn’t automatically mean I hit the sell button especially on a lower time frame such as a 5 minute. I try not to front-run breakdowns. As long as support is holding, a weak stock can still snap back, especially in a sector that’s prone to sharp reversals. That’s why I didn’t sell anything yesterday, even after spotting the divergence. I wanted to see how price behaved at a key level.

This morning gave me my answer. On the open, TLRY broke short-term support, and that was my signal to act. I sold roughly one-third of my position, not because I think TLRY is “done,” but because the risk/reward shifted. When a stock shows relative weakness and then loses support, I’d rather play some defense than just sit there and hope.

My mindset with this trade is simple and flexible. If daily support holds and TLRY turns back up with improving volume and strength, I can always add those shares right back on. There’s no rule that says once you sell, you can’t buy again. I’d much rather re-enter on confirmation than stubbornly hold through a drawdown just to prove a point.

Looking at the daily chart now, TLRY is once again approaching gap support. This is an important area, and how the stock behaves here will tell us a lot. If buyers step in and defend this zone, the recent weakness could end up being nothing more than noise. If it fails, then selling that partial position will have been the right call.

For now, I’m watching closely and letting the chart do the talking.

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So Much for Four Green Days in a Row

 

Nobody expected MSOS to be green four days in a row, did they?  Of course, it would have been nice to see that kind of follow through, but instead we got a red day that completely wiped out the gains from the prior three sessions. That’s the frustrating part about trading this space, just when things start to feel constructive, the rug can get pulled out quickly. Even so, despite today’s disappointment, I still believe we are on the doorstep of an up cycle.

What bothered me most about today wasn’t just the red close, but the lack of follow-through from yesterday’s late day rally. When you see buyers step in during the final hours, you want to see that momentum carry into the next session. Instead, the market opened weak and never really recovered. That’s not what bulls want to see, especially when sentiment has finally started to shift after weeks of grinding action.

That said, the chart isn’t all bad news. If you look closely, MSOS put in a clean double bottom right at 3.89 to the penny, sitting directly on top of the gap fill area. That level clearly mattered. Buyers showed up there twice, and that tells me there is still demand lurking beneath the surface. For now, that support is intact, and as long as it holds, I’m willing to give this trade some room.

Because of that, I’m choosing to sit tight with what I have in MSOS and let things play out. Not every day needs action, and sometimes the best move is no move at all. Chopping yourself up during noisy sessions usually does more harm than good.

One adjustment I did make, however, was in TLRY. This stock has been showing too much relative weakness for my liking. Yesterday, when MSOS pushed to new highs late in the afternoon, TLRY couldn’t even get off the mat. That was a red flag. Then this morning, when we took out yesterday’s low, I sold one-third of my TLRY position. I’m not married to it. I can always add those shares back if and when I see bullish volume and real strength return.

For now, it’s a waiting game. Support has been defined, risk is clear, and patience is required. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

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Price Was Quiet, Relative Weakness Was Screaming in QQQ

 

Relative Weakness on Display in QQQ

What a great example of relative weakness in QQQ over yesterday and today. This is one of those moments where viewing the market through the lens of relative strength almost feels like having an X-ray machine. You’re not just seeing price, you’re seeing what’s happening under the surface and in this case, the message was loud and clear well before price finally gave way.

Above is a 10-minute chart of QQQ, and in the lower pane is the relative strength ratio of QQQ vs SPY. On the surface, QQQ didn’t look particularly threatening at first glance. Price was chopping sideways, nothing dramatic, nothing that would necessarily scare you out of a position if you were only watching candles.

But the relative strength line was telling a very different story.

Sideways Price, Weakening Internals

From point A to point B, QQQ price moved sideways. If you were focused solely on price action, you might have concluded that the market was simply digesting recent gains or pausing before another move higher. There was no obvious breakdown, no aggressive selling, and no sense of urgency.

However, the relative strength line was trending lower the entire time.

That’s the key. While price appeared stable, QQQ was quietly underperforming SPY. Capital was rotating away from QQQ, even though price hadn’t yet reflected that weakness. This is exactly why I rely so heavily on relative strength, it reveals what price alone hides.

The Early Warning at Point B

By the time we reached point B, the message became even clearer. The relative strength line had already broken to new lows, signaling confirmed relative weakness. This breakdown happened before QQQ itself broke support.

That’s the beauty of relative strength analysis: it often acts as a leading indicator. It doesn’t wait for the obvious breakdown. It alerts you while price is still lulling traders into a false sense of security.

If you were watching only price, there was no clear reason to expect trouble. But if you were watching relative strength, the warning signs were already flashing.

Price Finally Catches Up

Once support finally broke, QQQ did exactly what the relative strength line had been hinting at all along. The ETF trended lower yesterday and continued lower into today, confirming the earlier signal. What looked like harmless consolidation turned out to be distribution.

This is a textbook example of why I say that looking at price alone isn’t enough. Relative strength adds critical context. It tells you where money is flowing and more importantly, where it’s leaving.

Final Thoughts

This was just a great, clean example of relative weakness in action. Sideways price, deteriorating relative strength, an early breakdown in the ratio, and then price following lower shortly after. When you learn to trust what relative strength is telling you, you stop reacting late and start positioning early.

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Is RDW About to Do What It Usually Does Every 52 Days?

 This is now the sixth consecutive day where RDW has closed below its open, and that kind of short-term weakness is exactly what gets my attention. When I see multiple red closes in a row, I don’t automatically think “run away.” More often than not, I start thinking about pullbacks and whether the stock is setting up for a tradable low. In this case, I think RDW is pulling back into an area where a buy entry could start to make sense.

Above is a daily chart of RDW with its 52-day cycle highlighted in green. I want you to really study that chart, because the accuracy of these cyclical lows is hard to ignore. Roughly every 52 trading days, RDW has put in a meaningful low, and those lows have often marked excellent entry points. Cycles don’t need to be perfect to be useful, and in my opinion, this one has shown pretty darn good timing when it comes to identifying downside exhaustion.

I always encourage you to be your own judge when it comes to cycles. Look at the chart closely and decide for yourself if this pattern has merit. For me, the consistency is enough to take it seriously, especially when price action lines up with the timing window. The main reason I’m showing you this cycle is simple: we are now in the time window for another cyclical low if this pattern continues to hold up.

That said, I’m not in a rush to jump in blindly. Time alone isn’t a signal. What I want to see next is evidence that buyers are actually stepping in. That could show up in several ways, relative strength versus the market, a bullish engulfing candle on a lower time frame, or a surge in volume that suggests accumulation. Any of those would tell me that selling pressure is starting to dry up and demand is returning.

From a price perspective, support appears to be coming in around the $9 level. If RDW tests that area and we see a clean bounce, that may be enough for me to get long. I don’t need to catch the exact bottom; I just want confirmation that the low is likely in or very close.

The most important takeaway here is that RDW is currently sitting in a critical time window for a meaningful low. If this 52-day cycle continues to assert itself, the odds start to favor a reversal rather than further downside. Because of that, RDW is firmly on my radar, and I’ll be staying alert for a clear buy signal to present itself.

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TCNNF and the 50-Day Cycle: My Low-Risk, High-Reward Cannabis Setup

 

If you’ve been following my recent posts, you know I’ve been watching the 50-day cycle in MSOS very closely. It’s a cycle I’ve been stalking because it tends to mark some of the most important turning points in the cannabis sector. As I mentioned in my last post, I believe the cyclical low is in, and that has me thinking about how this pattern connects with other big movers in the space. One of the standout names at the end of the day was TCNNF, which happens to be one of my favorite cannabis stocks. I wanted to zoom in and show you how that same 50-day rhythm in MSOS aligns surprisingly well with TCNNF.

Looking at the daily chart of TCNNF, it’s fascinating to see how consistently this cycle nails the lows. Each low is roughly the same distance apart, and that distance just so happens to be about 50 trading days. I’ve been tracking cycles for a while now, and the thing about them is that they repeat at fairly predictable intervals. The actual triggers for the moves, however, aren’t always obvious. Sometimes it’s news, sometimes it’s market sentiment, and sometimes it’s just the invisible hand of the cycle itself nudging prices at the right moment.

The last cyclical low for TCNNF was back in December, and if you remember, that rally was driven by anticipation of President Trump rescheduling cannabis. That event acted as a catalyst, giving life to the pattern and driving the stock higher. This time, I don’t know what the catalyst will be. Will it be Pam Bondi finalizing rescheduling? Some other regulatory announcement? The truth is, my job isn’t to predict headlines, it’s to identify patterns and trade them. Cycles have been described as mysterious forces that trigger events, and I’m just along for the ride, watching as the pieces fall into place.

Now, I have to admit, I could be totally wrong about the timing. Nothing in trading is guaranteed, and cycles aren’t foolproof. But the signals I’m seeing are aligning in a way that suggests this could be a low-risk, high-reward area. For me, TCNNF is at the top of my watchlist right now. The alignment of the 50-day cycle, combined with its history of predictable lows, makes this a stock I’m excited to follow closely. It’s one of those setups where the odds feel stacked in my favor, and even if the market surprises me, the risk remains defined.

Trading isn’t about certainty. it’s about positioning yourself where the probabilities are favorable. That’s exactly what I think I’m seeing with TCNNF right now, and I’m sharing it with all of you because the setup is too interesting to keep to myself.

This article reflects my personal market analysis and is for educational purposes only. For a deeper look with more data, see my post from yesterday on MSOS returning to the 50-day cycle window here

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage