A Low Is Due… But I’m Still Not Buying Bitcoin

 

I’ve been bearish on Bitcoin for the past several months, and I think the evidence continues to support that stance. When I look at this market through the lens of relative strength, it’s clear to me that money has been steadily leaving Bitcoin rather than flowing into it. That kind of behavior usually isn’t a recipe for sustained upside. On top of that, my longer-term cycle work still points to lower prices ahead, potentially stretching into the late summer months. From a bigger picture perspective, I remain firmly in the bearish camp.

That said, markets don’t move in straight lines, and the short-term picture is a bit more nuanced. Over the past 15 months, Bitcoin has been respecting a very consistent 2½-month cycle. This cycle has done a remarkably good job of identifying time windows when short-term lows are likely to form. If you look at the daily chart above, you can see how often this rhythm has shown up and how useful it’s been in highlighting potential turning points.

Based on that cycle, another short-term low looks like it could be due sometime this coming week. Now, even though that suggests a bounce may be approaching, it doesn’t change my overall bias. I’m not interested in trying to pick a bottom here. Instead, I’d much rather let Bitcoin bounce and then look for that rally to create another, potentially lower-risk shorting opportunity.

For me, the key question is whether this 2½-month cycle continues to dominate the short-term swings in this market. If it does, we should get a decent tradable bounce soon. Either way, I’ll be watching closely to see how things unfold and whether this familiar rhythm once again shows its hand.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

YCBD Woke Up on Friday

 On Friday there was one cannabis stock that really caught my attention, and that stock was YCBD. It wasn’t just the price action that stood out, but the combination of volume and range that showed up at exactly the right time. Above is a daily chart of YCBD, and the first thing I want to point out is the clear expansion in both range and volume. After contracting for most of the week, the stock finally made its move on Friday, and it did so in a meaningful way.

I always pay close attention to periods of contraction followed by expansion. When a stock tightens up and volatility dries up, it’s often storing energy. In YCBD’s case, that energy was released on Friday. The wide-range candle accompanied by a noticeable increase in volume tells me participation picked up in a big way. That’s not random. That’s buyers stepping in with intent after a week of indecision.

Now shift your focus to the weekly chart on the right, because this is where the bigger picture starts to come together. Notice how the move from point C to point D closely mirrors the move we saw earlier from point A to point B. In both instances, the stock experienced several red candles in a row, pressuring price lower and shaking out weak hands. That was followed by a strong green candle on increased volume at points B and D. Those candles marked the low and signaled the start of the next rally.

Patterns like this don’t guarantee anything, but when I see symmetry like that on a higher timeframe, I take notice. Markets have a way of repeating behaviors, especially in beaten down sectors like cannabis. The fact that YCBD is showing a familiar rhythm on the weekly chart while simultaneously flashing expansion signals on the daily chart makes this setup particularly interesting.

Going forward, there’s one level I’m watching very closely: Friday’s high at 1.32. That level now represents short-term resistance and a potential trigger point. If YCBD can break above 1.32, I think it opens the door for the next leg higher. A breakout through that level would confirm that Friday’s move wasn’t just a one day wonder, but the beginning of a broader rally.

For now, this stock is firmly on my watchlist. I want to see how it behaves around that 1.32 level and whether volume continues to support the move. If it does, YCBD could be setting up for something much bigger.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

The Warning Sign Inside the Gold Rally

 

Yesterday I talked about how silver’s relative weakness could have helped identify the top in gold and silver on Friday, but there was another way to spot the same warning signal if you were watching the gold stocks relative to gold itself. Sometimes the clearest tells don’t come from the headline asset, but from what’s happening just beneath the surface.

Above is a 60-minute chart of GDX, the ETF that tracks gold mining stocks. In the lower pane is a ratio line of GDX versus GLD. Early on, this relationship was about as clean as it gets. As GDX moved higher, the ratio line followed it almost lockstep picture perfect, with no divergences at all. That kind of action confirms a rally. When gold stocks are outperforming or at least keeping pace with gold, it tells me the move is healthy and broad-based.

That all changed at point B. GDX pushed to a new high, but the ratio line did something very different. Instead of confirming the move, it made a much lower high. That’s a classic relative weakness divergence, and it immediately put the rally on notice. The reason for that divergence becomes clear when you look at what gold itself was doing at that moment. GLD was exploding to the upside, yet the gold stocks could only manage a marginally higher high. In other words, the miners were no longer keeping up with the metal.

That disconnect matters. Gold stocks are leveraged plays on gold, so when gold is surging and the miners aren’t responding with equal or greater strength, something is wrong. The ratio line captured that weakness perfectly. You didn’t need to predict anything  you just needed to observe the relationship.

Sure enough, the confirmation came quickly. The first large red candle in GDX was the signal that sellers had taken control. From there, the damage accelerated. GDX sold off sharply, gapped down at the open, and closed near its lows for the day. The divergence didn’t tell you exactly when to exit, but it put you on high alert and kept you from being blindsided.

What’s even more compelling is that this wasn’t isolated to GDX. Other gold stocks like NEM, AU, and AEM showed the same type of relative weakness leading into the selloff. When multiple names flash the same signal, it adds weight to the message.

This is a great example of why I rely so heavily on relative strength and weakness. Price alone can be deceptive. The ratio line helps answer a critical question: is the market truly strong, or is the move starting to crack? In this case, it was clearly the latter.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Record Volume and Room to Run

 

The month has come to an end, and what a month it has been for RDW. Looking at the monthly chart above, the first thing that jumps out is the record volume we’ve seen. Seriously, just look at that massive spike and what’s even more interesting is that we aren’t even overbought on the monthly chart yet. That tells me this isn’t a climactic top; it feels more like an igniting move that still has room to run. In my opinion, I think we still have a lot more upside ahead, and that makes this setup particularly exciting.

Shifting to the daily chart on the right, I’m looking closely at RDW with its simple moving average of the lows. I can’t tell you how many times this moving average has acted like a roadmap for me, helping me pinpoint some really solid pullbacks. Each time price has approached this average, it has provided consistent support, giving me confidence that it’s a level worth paying attention to. Right now, that moving average sits at about $11, and that’s the level I’m focusing on for potential entries.

I’m not going to just blindly buy at $11, though. I want some kind of confirmation on a lower timeframe before stepping in. I’ll be looking for signals like bottoming tails, engulfing bars, trendline breaks, or relative strength showing up. If any of those signs appear once RDW tests the $11 area, that’s when I’m planning to get involved. This approach gives me both a clear price level to focus on and a structured way to confirm that the pullback is legitimate.

What excites me most about this setup is the combination of huge monthly volume without being overbought and a daily moving average that’s proven itself repeatedly as support. That’s a rare mix, it gives me confidence that we aren’t looking at a short-term spike but a move with more legs. Patience will be key here. I’ll wait for the test of $11 and the confirmation I’m looking for, and when it lines up, I’ll be ready. RDW has been giving signals I can trust recently, and this looks like another opportunity to take advantage of the trend while respecting risk. I’m optimistic heading into the next month and ready to make my move if the setup delivers.

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January Promised Everything… and Delivered Nothing

 

It’s the end of the week and the final trading day of the month, and on both the weekly and monthly timeframes we closed with red candles. That alone tells you a lot about the tone in the cannabis space right now. Above on the left is a weekly chart of MSOS, and you can clearly see that we’ve broken down from a five-week consolidation. That range had been tightening up nicely, but instead of resolving higher, sellers stepped in and pushed price lower. That’s never what you want to see coming off consolidation, especially when expectations were elevated heading into the month.

On the right is the monthly chart of MSOS, and here we’ve put in an inside month. What’s interesting is that many of the individual cannabis stocks are showing the same pattern. Inside months tell me the market is coiling and waiting, but the problem is that this particular inside month closed down. That suggests hesitation and frustration rather than constructive accumulation.

At this point it’s obvious the market is waiting for the next real catalyst. When updates don’t come specifically from Pam Bondi, impatient traders start selling. President Trump had made it clear he wanted rescheduling finalized by the end of January, and as we can all see, that deadline has come and gone. The longer the silence, the more confidence erodes in the short term.

Some people are pointing to broader geopolitical issues, like what’s going on with Venezuela and Minneapolis, as reasons for the delay. The hope is that February becomes the month where rescheduling finally gets pushed across the finish line. Maybe that’s the case, maybe it isn’t we’ll find out soon enough. For now, all we have is price, and price has been disappointing.

I’ll admit it, I came into January with high expectations. Seasonally, January and February tend to be strong months for the cannabis sector, and with all the buildup around policy changes, it felt like the timing finally lined up. Instead, all we could muster was an inside month with a red close. That’s a tough pill to swallow.

That said, I’m not throwing in the towel. I remain cautiously optimistic heading into February, but I’m also realistic. Until MSOS can reclaim the $5 level, a lot of what we’re seeing right now is just noise and frustration driven trading. The bigger move will come when price confirms it. Until then, patience is required. Let’s see what the new month brings.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Silver Blinked First… Did You Notice?

 

Wow, what a big down day for gold and silver and what a beautiful relative weakness setup to get positioned ahead of it. Trades like this are exactly why I pay so much attention to intermarket relationships. This one really checked every box, so let’s walk through it step by step.

Just a few days ago, I started talking about the possibility of a near-term top forming in the metals, and the reason was simple: silver was lagging. I’ve said it many times when the leader is no longer leading, that’s worth paying attention to. Silver typically leads gold during strong upside moves, so when that relationship starts to fray, it’s often an early warning sign.

To be clear, I also laid out my line in the sand. I said that if silver broke to new highs, I would hold off on shorting. And technically, silver did break higher. But instead of invalidating the setup, that breakout actually created new relative weakness divergences, which made the trade even more compelling.

On the chart above, I’m looking at a 2-hour chart of silver futures, with gold futures below it, and a ratio line of silver versus gold in the bottom pane. Start with gold. At point B, gold is trading meaningfully higher than it was at point A, a strong, aggressive push higher. Now look at silver. Even though silver also made a higher high at point B, it was only marginally above point A. You could visually see that silver just wasn’t keeping pace.

If that wasn’t obvious enough, the ratio chart made it crystal clear. At point B, the silver to gold ratio made a lower high compared to point A. That told me the move higher in silver was weak relative to gold. In other words, the breakout lacked real leadership.

Once minor support levels began to break, the outcome was decisive. Both gold and silver sold off hard, but silver led the way down exactly what you’d expect when relative weakness is present. The falling ratio line confirmed that silver was underperforming during the decline as well.

This was a textbook example of how using relative strength or in this case, relative weakness can help you catch tops that are otherwise very difficult to time. Trades like this don’t come around every day, but when they do, you want to be ready to recognize them.

If you want to see how this setup started to form, check out my original post from a few days ago, “When the Leader Stops Leading: A Key Level I’m Watching in Silver.”  

PLTR Slips Below 200-Day… Did You Catch That Signal?

 

Above is a 60-minute chart of PLTR, with the SPY shown in the lower pane for comparison. I like using this timeframe because it does a good job of highlighting developing relative strength or weakness without getting lost in the noise of very short-term charts. In this case, the message has been pretty clear.

At point B, the SPY pushed to a new high. PLTR didn’t follow. Instead, it put in a lower high, which immediately caught my attention. That’s a classic sign of relative weakness. When a stock can’t keep pace with the broader market during a rally, it’s often a warning that sellers are quietly gaining control. Sure enough, once minor support was broken, PLTR rolled over and sold off, confirming what the relative action was already suggesting.

Switching over to the daily chart on the right, the bigger picture looks even more concerning. PLTR is now clearly trading below its 200-day moving average, a level that a lot of longer-term participants pay close attention to. When price loses that moving average after an extended run, it often marks a shift in character from bullish to neutral at best, or outright bearish at worst.

This move didn’t come out of nowhere. I’ve been warning about potential weakness in PLTR since December 29th. I’ve marked a grey circle on the chart where I alerted my readers that PLTR had turned bearish. At that time, we saw a failed swing high against the SPX along with a break of the uptrend line. Those are not things I ignore, especially when they happen together. Since that alert, PLTR has put in a pretty clean move to the downside.

Just to be clear, when I say I alerted my readers, there’s no paywall or subscription involved. My blog is completely free. I post these observations in real time, not in hindsight. If you want more detail on the initial breakdown, you can check out the post titled “PLTR Turning Bearish: Failed Swing High vs. SPX and Uptrend Line Broken.”

For now, the burden of proof is on PLTR. Until it can reclaim key levels and start showing relative strength again, I’m treating rallies as suspect and respecting the weakness the charts are clearly showing.

MSOS Déjà Vu… Until It Wasn’t

 Well, it’s like déjà vu all over again. MSOS opened and sold off immediately, just like yesterday and the day before. Above is a 2-minute chart of MSOS with the SPY in the lower pane for comparison. I’m using a 2-minute chart here because I want to show more detail, but honestly you’d see the same thing on a 5- or even a 10-minute chart, the message doesn’t change.

At the open, both MSOS and the SPY sold off into point A. Nothing surprising there. Then the SPY managed a small bounce before rolling over again and making new lows at point B. That’s where things got interesting. Instead of following the market lower, MSOS held up. Not only did it refuse to make a new low, it actually put in a higher low and began curling higher, threatening to take out minor resistance.

That’s relative strength, folks (on a small scale) and it’s something we simply haven’t seen out of MSOS over the past week. That divergence was enough to get me long for a day trade. I wasn’t expecting fireworks, and I didn’t get them. MSOS only rallied about a dime from my entry, so nothing great, but I’ll take it. In a tape like this, even small signs of strength are worth paying attention to.

Zooming out to the daily chart on the right, the bigger picture if getting a bit oversold. This marks the fourth consecutive lower high, so the intermediate trend is clearly still down. That said, today’s candle left a noticeable bottoming tail after flushing below the $4 level and then reclaiming it.  We also came very close to filling the downside gap, which often matters when you’re looking for at least a short-term bounce.

I’m not about to declare this the bottom, more like a bottom. If we can take out today’s high around 4.24, I’ll look to get long for a tradable bounce. My core position remains intact; this would simply be a separate short-term trade.

For now, I’m watching and letting the market show its hand. Let’s see how things unfold.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

TLRY… are you kidding me?

 

This felt like a straight up replay of yesterday, only worse. Above is a 5-minute chart of TLRY, with MSOS in the lower pane for comparison, and from the opening bell the tone was already familiar. At point A, TLRY opens and immediately sells off hard. No hesitation, no attempt to find its footing, just straight down, almost identical to what we saw yesterday. Right away I’m on alert, because when a stock can’t even hold the open in a supposedly bullish environment, that’s information.

Then around noon ET the headline hits. The news sends MSOS ripping higher, pushing to a new intraday high at point B. This is where I’m watching very closely. If TLRY is healthy, if it’s truly participating, this is the moment it should respond. Did it make a new high? No. Instead, it stalled and rolled over, printing a lower high. Instantly my focus shifts from optimism to defense. Relative weakness. In my head I’m hearing, “Danger Will Robinson.”

About an hour later, MSOS does it again. Another push to a fresh high, another opportunity for TLRY to confirm. And once again, TLRY fails. Another lower high. At that point there’s no ambiguity. I’ve seen this movie too many times before, and I know exactly how it ends if support gives way. When the ETF is making higher highs and the individual stock can’t keep up, sellers are in control whether I like it or not.

Here’s the part that stings. I’m long TLRY. I’ve been holding shares since last summer, and emotionally that matters more than it should. But being long doesn’t give me a free pass to ignore what’s right in front of me. So I do what I know I’m supposed to do. I place a sell stop on one-third of my position, right below support. This isn’t me flipping bearish on the whole thesis, it’s me respecting risk.

Not long after, TLRY breaks the low, triggers my sell stop, and from there both TLRY and MSOS sink into the close, finishing basically at their lows. Confirmation, unfortunately, came fast.

What frustrates me the most is that about 90% of my trading is based on pure technical signals. I live in volume. I rely heavily on relative strength, cycles, and clean support and resistance levels. Fundamentals are great to have as a backdrop, but technical analysis is what actually drives my decision making. And yet here I am, getting emotionally tangled up in the rescheduling narrative and letting that override signals that have been flashing sell for days.

The result is that I’ve given back a significant chunk of the profits I built up after buying these stocks last summer. Even though I’m still slightly positive overall, it feels like I’ve lost a ton of money. That’s the psychological trap, giving back gains hurts just as much, sometimes more, than taking an outright loss.

The chart didn’t lie. I just didn’t want to listen.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

The Gap Is Filled, but the Frustration Remains

 

Well, we finally got it over with, TLRY filled its gap at 8.43. Being long this stock, that’s obviously not something I was hoping to see, but at the same time I’m glad the market dealt with it now instead of dragging it out. Open gaps have a way of acting like magnets, and once they’re filled, at least that question mark is removed.

On the left above is a 5-minute chart of TLRY. The stock opened flat and then quickly sold off, tagging the gap fill around 8.40. After that initial move lower, TLRY pretty much went nowhere for the rest of the session. We saw a lot of sideways action, very little momentum, and the stock ultimately closed right near its low. That kind of price action tells me there’s still no real urgency on the buy side, at least in the short term.

If you shift over to the daily chart on the right, you can clearly see the gap that was filled today. From a pure technical standpoint, this is actually an area where you could see a bounce or even the start of a rally. Gap fills often mark logical inflection points. The problem, as usual with this sector, is the lack of a catalyst. Right now, no news is bearish news, and that’s exactly why we continue to see the entire cannabis sector drifting lower in what feels like a slow, painful bleed.

We’re down to just three more trading days left in the month of January, and it would be great to finally hear something concrete regarding the finalization of rescheduling. That’s the overhang everyone is waiting on, and until we get clarity, it’s hard to see aggressive buying step in.

That said, I want to be clear about my mindset. I’m in this trade for a longer-term move. I still believe the fundamentals favor a bull market in the cannabis sector, and I’m willing to sit through short-term noise to be positioned for that. In the near term, though, I’ll be the first to admit this has been extremely frustrating.

For now, all we can do is stay patient, manage risk, and see what tomorrow brings.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

When the Leader Stops Leading: A Key Level I’m Watching in Silver

 

As we all know, gold and silver have been enjoying an explosive rally for quite some time now, and without question silver has been the leader of the move. When a trend is strong, I always want to be aligned with the strongest name, and silver has fit that bill perfectly. That said, I’m now starting to see signs that this rally may be getting a little tired. I want to be very clear here, I’m not calling a top. What I am seeing is the potential for a pullback, and that distinction matters.

Above is a 60-minute chart of silver futures, and in the lower pane is gold. Right now, gold is pushing to a new swing high, but silver is not confirming that strength. Instead, silver is making a lower high. That’s classic non-confirmation, and when the leader stops leading, it’s always worth paying attention. This is potentially bearish, and I emphasize potentially because, as of now, there are still no actual sell signals.

When I zoom out to the daily chart of silver, another important detail stands out. We recently saw a very heavy volume day, yet price has been unable to move above that day’s high. Heavy volume often marks an inflection point, either strong continuation or the start of distribution. The fact that silver is stalling below that high tells me buyers may be losing some urgency.

So here’s how I’m planning to play it. I’m not interested in guessing. If silver turns lower and takes out the low of that heavy volume day, I will look to short. That level comes in at 101.70, and a break below it would be my confirmation that sellers are taking control, at least in the short term.

On the flip side, if silver regains its strength and rallies to make a new high alongside gold, then all bets are off. In that scenario, I have zero interest in shorting silver. It’s very possible that silver resolves higher, which is exactly why patience is critical here.

For now, I’m letting price tell the story. No anticipation, no prediction, just waiting for confirmation. Let’s see what happens.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Rare Earth Stocks Show First Signs of Relative Weakness

 

Today was a very interesting day for the rare earth stocks, mainly because it marked the first real bout of relative weakness we’ve seen in weeks. After a strong run higher, I think it’s important to walk through today’s action and talk about what it may be signaling going forward.

On the left above, I’m looking at a 5-minute chart of REMX, the ETF that tracks the rare earth space. In the lower pane is the SPY for comparison. Right from the open, at point A, we got our first clue that something was different. The SPY rallied straight out of the gate, yet REMX was selling off. When the broad market is pushing higher and a leading group can’t participate, that immediately gets my attention. That divergence is often the earliest sign that sellers are becoming more active.

At point B, the relative weakness became much more obvious. While the SPY was making new highs, REMX was only able to put in a much lower high. That’s a textbook example of relative weakness. It shows that buyers are no longer willing to chase price in this group, even as the overall market remains supportive.

Once short-term support was broken, selling picked up and continued pretty much into the close. There was no meaningful attempt to reclaim those levels, which tells me this move wasn’t just random noise.

Looking at the daily chart of REMX on the right, volume really stands out. Turnover was heavy, suggesting this was more than just light profit-taking. At the same time, the group was a bit overextended after its recent advance, so a pullback here shouldn’t come as a surprise. Strong trends often need time to reset.

Several individual names in the space felt the pressure today, including CRML, METC, TMC, and MP. In the longer term, I still think these stocks look constructive. Today’s action doesn’t change the bigger picture for me, but it does suggest that near-term, it’s probably pullback time.

If we do see continued weakness, I’ll be looking at that pullback as a potential opportunity rather than a reason to abandon the trade. I’ll be watching for support to form and for relative strength to reappear, with the goal of getting long again in the days ahead.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Relative Weakness Keeps Cannabis Stocks in Limbo

 

Another frustrating day for cannabis traders who are leaning bullish. From the open, relative weakness was on display, and it never really let up. This wasn’t a sudden breakdown or a surprise move late in the session, it was a slow, persistent bleed that played out all day long.

Above, I’m looking at a 5-minute chart of MSOS, with the SPY below it for comparison. The key moment for me was at point B. While the SPY pushed to a new high, MSOS couldn’t follow. That’s textbook relative weakness. When the broader market is making higher highs and your group can’t even keep pace, that’s a warning sign. It tells you buyers aren’t as motivated, and sellers are more than happy to use strength as an opportunity to unload.

Once short-term support gave way, the selling accelerated and carried pretty much into the close. There was no meaningful bounce attempt, just steady pressure. Days like this are tough psychologically because nothing dramatic happens,  the stock just quietly does the wrong thing all session long.

Shifting to the daily chart on the right, today’s candle tells a slightly different story. The range was relatively small, and price remains trapped in a tight four week consolidation. Despite all the intraday frustration, we’re still chopping sideways. That’s important context. This market isn’t breaking down, but it’s also not breaking out. It’s waiting.

And we all know what it’s waiting for: clarity on cannabis rescheduling. With just four trading days left until the end of January, that update could drop at any time. That uncertainty explains the compression we’re seeing. Traders are hesitant to commit aggressively in either direction without a headline.

I can’t help but think back to August, when we were told “just a few more weeks.” Those few weeks quietly turned into four more months. Yes, we eventually got the executive order signing, but the waiting was brutal. I really don’t want to see four more days turn into something longer again.

For now, patience is the only real edge. Until relative strength shows up and price escapes this range, frustration is simply part of the trade.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Watching 10.30 as Potential Support in RDW

 

Now that RDW is starting to pull back, I just wanted to give a quick update on how I’m looking at this name. Up to this point, the pullbacks have been fairly orderly, and one of the tools that has been helping me time entries is the 13-day simple moving average of the lows. This moving average has done a good job of acting as dynamic support, and so far it’s been working well for me.

As of now, that 13-day SMA of the lows is sitting right around the 10.30 level. That immediately puts that area on my radar as a potential support zone. That said, I’m not interested in blindly buying just because price touches a moving average. A level on a chart is only an area of interest it’s not a signal by itself.

If RDW pulls back into that 10.30 area, what I want to see next is confirmation that buyers are actually showing up. There are a few different ways that can happen. One thing I’ll be watching for is a bullish reversal bar on an intraday timeframe. That would tell me sellers are losing control and buyers are beginning to step in.

Another clue could come from relative strength. If the broader market is weak and RDW is holding firm or starting to firm up near that support level, that’s information. Relative strength during a pullback often precedes the next leg higher.

I’ll also be paying close attention to how the stock behaves early in the session if it’s sitting near support. A tight consolidation during the first hour, followed by an opening range breakout, would be another constructive signal. Tight price action after a pullback often means supply is drying up.

The main point is this: 10.30 is an area, not a trade. I’m watching that level closely, but I’ll only get involved if price action confirms that buyers are defending it. When support lines up with constructive behavior, the odds improve. Until then, patience is part of the process.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Uranium Stocks Reverse Hard at Resistance

 

It was a big reversal day for the uranium stocks, and the warning signs showed up almost immediately. Right from the open, this group displayed clear relative weakness and that weakness persisted all the way into the close. When a sector can’t find its footing early in the session and continues to sell off throughout the day, I take notice especially when it’s occurring at an obvious technical level.

If you look at the daily chart of URA above, you’ll see price pushed right up into a well defined resistance zone and then failed. That area had already proven to be problematic in the past, and once again sellers showed up right on cue. The result was a very bearish candlestick. We didn’t just print a bearish engulfing candle, we engulfed the previous two days of trading entirely. That’s a strong reversal signal and not something I’m willing to ignore.

Reversal candlestick patterns on their own can sometimes be noise, but when they occur at resistance, they carry a lot more weight. Context matters. This wasn’t a reversal in the middle of nowhere. It happened exactly where you would expect sellers to defend price, which increases the odds that this move is meaningful rather than random.

Another important technical development was the break of the uptrend line that had been in place since the beginning of the year. Trend lines aren’t magical, but they do reflect behavior. When an uptrend that’s been respected for weeks finally gives way, it often signals a change in character. That’s what we saw today.

Volume was also respectable on the selloff, which tells me this wasn’t just a lack of buyers, it was active distribution. When downside pressure shows up with expanding volume near resistance, that’s a combination I take seriously.

Putting it all together, resistance rejection, a strong bearish engulfing pattern, a broken uptrend line, and solid volume. I expect lower prices ahead for uranium stocks in the coming days. 

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

CURLF Holds Key Weekly Support as Relative Strength Turns Up

 

Above is a weekly chart of CURLF, and the first thing I want to point out is that price appears to be holding moving average support. This isn’t some random moving average that I pulled out of a hat. It’s one I’ve been using for a long time because it has done a remarkably good job of defining both support and resistance over the past two years. Specifically, this is the 15-week simple moving average of the lows, and it continues to earn its keep.

If you study the chart closely, you’ll notice how often price has reacted to this average almost to the penny. When CURLF is above it, pullbacks into the average tend to attract buyers. When price is below it, rallies often stall right at that same level. That kind of consistency is significant to me because it tells me the market is paying attention to it, and when the market pays attention, I want to be paying attention too.

Last week was another good example. CURLF pulled back and tagged this 15-week moving average, but instead of breaking down, it held. We closed the week in positive territory and left behind a small bottoming tail. That tail tells me buyers stepped in at support and defended it. In a weak stock, that level would have given way. Here, it didn’t.

In the lower pane, you can see the relative strength line of CURLF versus MSOS. After a period of drifting lower, that ratio line now appears to be turning back up. Relative strength turning higher while price holds support is something I always want to see, as it suggests CURLF may be starting to outperform the broader cannabis space again.

I’ve been long CURLF for many months and have been content to sit through the consolidation. At this point, I’m not looking to add blindly. My plan is to let price confirm. On the daily chart, a move above 2.82 would take out the most recent pivot high and confirm a small double bottom that held support near 2.40. If price can clear that level, I’ll look to add to my position.

For now, the combination of moving average support and improving relative strength keeps CURLF firmly on my radar.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Six Weeks of Compression: Is Cannabis Setting Up for a Move?

 

It was another quiet week for cannabis stocks, but despite the lack of excitement, the group managed to do something constructive. We closed the week on the highs and finished in positive territory. That may not sound like much, but in a market like this, small details matter, especially when they keep repeating.

If you look at the weekly chart above of MSOS, you’ll notice something interesting. This marks the sixth consecutive week where price has closed in a very tight range between roughly 4.75 and 4.90. As I mentioned last week, this kind of action is a clear sign of compression. Volatility has dried up, price has gone quiet, and the market is coiling. From my experience, these periods don’t last forever. When they resolve, they tend to resolve with a directional move.

The longer price moves sideways, the more meaningful the eventual breakout tends to be. Right now, MSOS is doing exactly that, moving sideways frustrating both bulls and bears, and lulling most participants to sleep. That’s usually when conditions are being set for something larger.

Timing is also worth paying attention to. We now have just five trading days left until the end of January. With Pam Bondi expected to finalize cannabis rescheduling, that headline could drop at any time. In my opinion, that’s the potential spark the market has been waiting for. When expectations are low and positioning is light, it doesn’t take much to shift sentiment quickly.

While the broader group has been quiet, a few individual cannabis stocks tested support this past week and appear to be bouncing. That tells me sellers may be running out of urgency at these levels. I’m not seeing aggressive downside follow-through, and that’s another subtle but important clue.

For now, patience remains the name of the game. Compression, quiet price action, and low volatility often precede expansion. The question is whether this is the calm before the storm and if this is the week volatility finally expands. I’m positioned for that possibility and prepared for movement when it comes.

Are you?

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Using the 13-Day Moving Average as a Roadmap in RDW

 

What a nice rally RDW has put together over the past couple of days. Above is a daily chart of RDW along with its 13 simple moving average of the lows. This is a moving average I’ve been writing about for weeks now, and it continues to work well for me. I like its responsiveness and more importantly the way price consistently reacts around it.

If you look back on the chart, you can see how clearly this moving average has acted as both support and resistance in the past. When price has been below it, rallies have often stalled there. When price has been above it, pullbacks into the average have tended to attract buyers. That kind of behavior is exactly what I want to see from a tool I’m using as a decision-making reference.

A few days ago, RDW once again tested this 13-day moving average of the lows. At the time, the stock was under pressure, but instead of breaking down, it found support right where I would expect it to. Since that test, we’ve seen a sharp and decisive rally, confirming that buyers were waiting at that level. When a stock respects support like that, it usually isn’t random, and it’s something I want to stay aligned with.

Now let’s look at the chart on the right, which is also a daily chart of RDW but zoomed out a bit more. Notice where price stopped on Friday, right at the prior gap fill. That gap fill represented a logical area of overhead supply and a natural spot to take profits. That’s exactly what happened, and I took some off the table into that strength.

That said, I’m still holding a small long position because I’m positioning for a potentially larger move. I’m not in a rush to add here, though. Price is currently a bit extended above the moving average, and I’d rather be patient. My plan is to look for a pullback as the moving average catches up to price. Once it does, I’ll be watching closely for signs of support and a potential long entry.

As long as RDW continues to respect this moving average, it remains my roadmap for managing this trade.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

TSLA Holds Weekly Support While Relative Strength Hints at a Turn

 

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Above is a weekly chart of TSLA along with its moving average, and on the right we have a daily chart of TSLA with the relative strength line in the lower pane. I want to start with the weekly chart because it provides the bigger picture and, in my opinion, the most important context right now.

Notice how this simple moving average of the lows has acted as support for TSLA numerous times in the past. Each time the stock pulled back into this area, buyers stepped in and price rebounded higher. This moving average has clearly been respected over time, which is why it continues to matter. This past week we saw TSLA once again test that same average, and importantly, the stock managed to close the week in positive territory. That tells me support was respected yet again, and whenever that happens, it immediately has my attention. The market is telling us that buyers are still willing to defend this level.

Now let’s shift over to the daily chart on the right. From a pure price perspective, TSLA has been in a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs. There’s no debating that. However, when I look beneath price at the relative strength line, I start to see something interesting developing. While price has continued to struggle, the ratio line has actually pushed to a higher high. That kind of divergence can sometimes be an early sign that downside momentum is waning and that a potential change in trend could be setting up.

That said, I don’t trade based on anticipation alone. Relative strength is a great clue, but price still has to confirm. Right now, TSLA remains below its most recent pivot high at 454.30. As long as price stays below that level, the downtrend is technically still intact. For me, the trigger would be a move above that pivot. If TSLA can take out 454.30, that would suggest a higher high is finally in place and that some kind of intermediate bottom may have formed.

If that happens, I would expect higher prices in the weeks ahead. Until then, patience is key. I’ll be watching closely to see if price can confirm what relative strength is already hinting at. Let’s see how things play out next week.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

Relative Weakness in NFLX Persists

 

The relative weakness in NFLX continues to stand out, and today was another good example of why I’ve stayed cautious with this stock. While the SPY pushed higher and made a new high on the day, NFLX closed lower. That type of divergence is exactly what I pay attention to. Above is the daily chart of NFLX, and in the lower pane I have the SPY for comparison. When the broader market is moving up and an individual stock can’t keep pace, that’s often a warning sign.

I’ve been talking about this relative weakness since early December. Back then, the market was still in a strong uptrend, but NFLX was already starting to lag. On December 4th, I laid out why I was bearish and why the action in NFLX was something investors shouldn’t ignore. Since that time, we’ve seen the stock sell off, confirming that early warning. Relative weakness doesn’t always play out immediately, but when it persists, it usually matters.

Now we’re back at another interesting spot on the chart, and in my view, another potential setup for a short. Today NFLX printed an inside day, meaning the entire trading range stayed within yesterday’s range. On its own, an inside day can mean consolidation, but context is everything. The key is that this happened while the S&P 500 made a higher high today. To me, that’s another clear sign that NFLX is underperforming and that sellers are still in control.

The level I’ll be watching very closely is yesterday’s low at 81.93. That low also happens to be the earnings day low, which makes it even more important. If that level gives way, I think we could see some further downside unfold fairly quickly. As long as NFLX continues to lag the market and fails to show any real relative strength, I remain skeptical of the upside.

For anyone who wants more background on why I turned bearish in the first place, I’d recommend going back and reading my original post from December 4th, Relative Weakness in NFLX You Can’t Ignore.

Quiet Day, Quiet Strength in Cannabis Stocks

Another quiet day for the cannabis stocks, but I’ll take quiet with a slightly green close over the alternative. We managed to finish marginally higher, and at this point in the month, that alone feels notable. With six trading days left on the calendar until the end of January, you would think we’d have heard something by now from Pam Bondi regarding the final steps on cannabis rescheduling. Assuming she follows through and wraps things up as requested by Trump, the announcement could really come at any time. Until then, the market continues to wait and waiting markets tend to drift.

Even on slow days like this, I’m always looking for clues under the surface. Today, two names stood out to me: TLRY and CURLF. Neither made any big headlines, but technically they’re sitting right at key support levels, and that’s where my attention usually sharpens. What caught my eye was the action right at the open. In both cases, it looked like buyers stepped in almost immediately, defending those levels before things had a chance to slip lower.

When I flipped down to the ratio lines in the lower pane, the picture got a little more interesting. Both TLRY and CURLF showed a slight upturn versus MSOS, which tells me they were beginning to outperform the broader cannabis ETF, even if only modestly. That kind of relative strength doesn’t mean much on its own, but it’s often how early moves begin quietly and without much attention.

Volume, however, was nothing special. It came in about average, so we don’t yet have that extra confirmation I like to see when a real move is getting started. Still, the fact that support held and buyers were willing to show up at those levels is something I don’t want to ignore. In beaten down groups like cannabis, rallies often start from these exact conditions: boredom, skepticism, and subtle relative strength.

For tomorrow, I’ll be watching closely for follow through. If these stocks can build on today’s action and volume begins to expand, that would be a meaningful change in character. Until then, patience remains the name of the game but the setup is starting to get interesting. 

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

RDW Defends the 13 EMA as the Trend Is Tested

 Above is a daily chart of RDW with a 13-day exponential moving average of the lows, and over the past four months this average has done an excellent job of acting as both support and resistance. It’s one of those levels that just keeps showing up on the chart, and when that happens, I pay attention. You can clearly see how many times this moving average has essentially nailed both the highs and the lows during that period, and today was no exception.

Early in the session, RDW pulled back and tagged this 13 EMA of the lows almost perfectly. That level once again acted as support, and price responded the way you’d want to see if you’re leaning bullish. Buyers stepped in, defended the level, and RDW managed to close back above $10 by the end of the day. From a technical perspective, that’s a constructive outcome and reinforces the importance of this moving average.

For me, this 13 EMA of the lows is now my clear line in the sand for the short-term uptrend that began in early December. As long as price continues to hold above this average, I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. It defines risk very clearly and keeps me from overthinking every little pullback. A decisive close below this level, however, would change the character of the chart and would make me much more cautious in the near term.

That said, it wasn’t a perfect day. I did notice some subtle signs of relative weakness versus the broader market. Around 3:00 ET, when the SPY pushed to a new high, RDW failed to confirm with a new high of its own. That kind of non-confirmation is worth noting, especially in a stock that’s been driven heavily by momentum and sentiment.

Still, as long as RDW continues to respect this 13 EMA of the lows, I’m going to stay bullish and stick with the trend. The chart is telling me where I’m right and where I’m wrong, and for now, that key average remains firmly intact.

I recently highlighted this same 13 EMA in my post “RDW Approaches Resistance as I Wait for a Better Entry,” and it continues to prove its usefulness.

MRNA’s Relative Strength Told the Story Early

 Today was another strong day for MRNA, and as a day trader this was a great example of how relative strength can tip you off early if you’re paying attention. Above is a 5-minute chart of MRNA that includes the pre-market and after-hours session, and in the lower pane I have the SPY for comparison. This relative comparison is where the edge showed up today.

At point A, right at the opening bell, the SPY pushed higher and then quickly rolled over. The market rally failed and price sold off, eventually making a lower low at point B. If you were only watching the indices, that action could have easily kept you cautious or even bearish. But MRNA was telling a very different story.

MRNA also opened at point A and initially rallied, but instead of following the SPY lower, it held its ground. Rather than selling off, the stock went sideways and carved out a higher low at point B. That’s the key. While the market was weak and making lower lows, MRNA refused to break down. This is classic relative strength and, for me, it’s often a sign that a stock is under accumulation. Institutions don’t wait for perfect market conditions; they buy what they want when they want it.

This divergence was the clue that MRNA was acting better than the market, and it immediately put the stock on my radar. When price eventually took out the high of the day, that relative strength resolved itself to the upside. Buyers stepped in aggressively and MRNA rallied strongly into the close, rewarding anyone who was patient enough to wait for confirmation.

What made the move even more impressive was the follow-through after the bell. Instead of stalling or fading, MRNA continued to push higher in the after-hours session, eventually hitting a high of 53.28. That kind of strength late in the day and after hours reinforces the idea that demand is still there.

This was just a great, clean example of how relative strength works in real time. The market doesn’t always give you easy trades, but when a stock can hold firm while the SPY is weak, it’s worth paying attention. Days like today are a reminder that the clues are often there well before the big move starts.

For more analysis and market insights, visit my homepage 

VFF Shows Strength as Pullback May Be Ending

 Over the weekend I posted about why I believe this pullback in VFF was a buying opportunity, and today we finally saw some evidence that the pullback may be coming to an end. Above is a daily chart of VFF, and the first thing that jumps out at me is the bullish engulfing pattern that formed today. After a period of consolidation and selling pressure, seeing a strong engulfing candle like this is exactly the kind of price action I want to see if a stock is trying to put in a low.

Volume was slightly elevated, which is encouraging, but what really has my attention is the relative strength. Today was a weak day across the board. The overall market struggled, and cannabis stocks in particular were under pressure. Despite that, VFF managed to close up more than 4%, making it the strongest cannabis stock on the day. That type of outperformance on a down market day is a big tell for me. It suggests that buyers are stepping in with conviction while money is rotating out of weaker names.

I also talked about confirmation over the weekend. For me, confirmation of a potential low would come if VFF could take out last week’s high at 3.65. Today’s high was 3.65, so we’re right at that level. That tells me the stock is pressing up against resistance, and now it’s a matter of whether it can push through it. A clean move over 3.65 would go a long way toward confirming that the pullback is over and that the uptrend is ready to resume.

Another important piece of the puzzle is the ratio line in the lower pane. Notice how it has turned up and broken its downtrend. Relative strength turning higher often leads price, and seeing that shift now adds confidence to my thesis that this was simply a normal pause within a strong uptrend.

I’m already long this stock since last summer but I will be looking to add some more shares on a decisive move over 3.65. If you want more detail on why I was expecting a turn, you can read my weekend post titled VFF Pullback Looks Like a Normal Pause in a Strong Uptrend, where I laid out the full setup.

Nasdaq Weakness Confirms: Pullback Begins

 

Over the past week I’ve been warning about the relative weakness I was starting to see in the Nasdaq, and today we finally saw that weakness begin to play out. Above is a daily chart of QQQ, with SPY in the lower pane for comparison, and the divergence really couldn’t be clearer to me. Last week SPY pushed to a fresh high, showing continued strength in the broader market. QQQ, on the other hand, failed to confirm that move. It did not make a new high, and that non-confirmation was the first real warning sign that something was off beneath the surface.

Whenever I see one major index making new highs while another lags behind, I start paying very close attention. Markets don’t usually top all at once, and leadership often starts to narrow before we see a pullback. That’s exactly what I felt was happening here. I mentioned last week that as long as minor support held, the market could continue chopping higher. But I also said that once that support was taken out, it would act as a trigger for a potential downside move.

That trigger came today. QQQ broke below last week’s low at 614.56, and to me that’s a meaningful technical development. This break confirms the relative weakness that was already showing up on the chart. In my opinion, this move marks the beginning of a pullback in the market. I’m not looking for a crash, and I’m not pounding the table on a major bear market. What I do see is an overdue reset after an extended run higher.

What’s important now is where the relative strength is showing up. While QQQ is breaking support, IWM has continued to act much better. Small caps have been holding up and, in some cases, pushing higher while the Nasdaq rolls over. That’s the index I want to focus on going forward. If the market is going to pull back, I want to be aligned with the areas that are still showing strength.

For anyone who wants more background, you can read my original post from last week titled: Relative Weakness in QQQ Signals Caution, Not Panic where I first outlined these concerns.